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R 181355Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000084 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON ARMENIA-TURKEY PROTOCOLS AND DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO 
THE LAW ON INTERNATIONAL TREATIES 
 
YEREVAN 00000084  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
(U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) On February 12 the Turkey-Armenia protocols were submitted 
to the National Assembly and subsequently sent to the Committee on 
Foreign Relations for discussion.  It is unclear when the Committee 
will discuss the protocols and when (or if) the Parliament will vote 
on them.  The draft amendments to the Law on International Treaties 
that vest in Armenia's executive the authority to suspend or halt 
the process of entering into a treaty were submitted to the National 
Assembly on February 17.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PROTOCOLS SUBMITTED 
------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) On February 12 President Sargsian officially submitted the 
Armenia-Turkey protocols to the National Assembly for ratification. 
The protocols were sent to the Committee on Foreign Relations, but 
it is yet unclear when the Committee, headed by Armen Rustamian of 
the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) - the main 
opponent of the protocols - will start its discussions.  There seems 
to be no deadline for international treaties to be discussed in the 
committee, and no deadline for a vote by Parliament.  "There are 
agreements that entered the National Assembly Agenda four years ago 
and are still waiting for discussion and ratification," Rustamian 
told Poloffs.  "We are in no hurry to start discussing them in the 
Committee."  Davit Harutyunian, head of the Committee on State Legal 
Issues, told us, however, that based on past practice, bills and 
treaties typically stay in committees no longer than a month. 
Interlocutors think the Committee will start the discussion whenever 
it is instructed to do so by the Presidency. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Meanwhile, Dashnaktsutyun and the opposition Heritage Party 
continue their campaigns against ratification of the protocols. 
"Another hearing on the issue is necessary", Arstvik Minasian, a 
Dashnak MP, told us.  The Dashnaks have also initiated a petition 
campaign against the protocols.  Their volunteers told Poloff that 
they already have collected 60,000 signatures against opening the 
border, and will send the signatures to the National Assembly as 
soon as they reach 80,000. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The leadership of the ruling coalition has sent mixed 
signals regarding the timing for National Assembly consideration and 
possible ratification.    "The protocols will not be debated in the 
National Assembly until Turkey's parliament ratifies them," Galust 
Sahakian, the parliamentary leader of the governing Republican Party 
of Armenia, reaffirmed in an interview with RFE/RL on the day of 
submission. However, on February 16, Vice Speaker Samvel Nikoyan 
stated in a press conference that Yerevan must take the initiative 
by starting the process of ratification.  In his opinion, Armenia 
should remain proactive in the Armenian-Turkish process, 
specifically by beginning the discussion of the protocols in the 
foreign relations committee.  Nikoyan argued that the Armenian 
initiative to normalize relations with Turkey has enhanced its image 
in the eyes of the international community.  "The continuation of 
this policy initiative will strengthen the position of Armenia," 
Nikoyan said.  However, he added that the specific timing of 
ratification should be dictated by the logic of the process. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On the day after his intereview, however,  Nikoyan 
confided to us that his forward-leaning position was not welcomed by 
the Presidency.He said he would publicly make it clear that he had 
only expressed a personal preference for early discussion in the 
Committee of Foreign Affairs, and was not advocating an early move 
toward final ratification.  (He did so February 17 on Shant TV.) 
 
NEW AMENDMENT CLARIFIES WITHDRAWAL PROCEDURES 
--------------------------------------- 
¶6.  (SBU) On February 17, the government submitted proposed 
amendments to the Law on International Agreements which, if 
approved, will make it easier for Armenia to walk away from the 
deal.  "We are now establishing that before the entry into force of 
an international treaty, Armenia may stop participating in it," 
Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian said during a cabinet 
meeting.  President Sargsian announced his intention to enact such 
amendments in December in response to Turkish leaders' continuing 
statements making the ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols 
conditional on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  He 
made clear that Yerevan will annul the deal if Ankara fails to 
implement it within a "reasonable" time frame. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Sargsian reaffirmed his position during a visit to London 
on February 10.  "If, as many suspect, it is proven that Turkey's 
goal is to protract, rather than to normalize relations, we will 
have to discontinue the process," he warned during his Chatham House 
speech.  Sargsian stressed at the same time that Armenia's National 
 
YEREVAN 00000084  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Assembly, dominated by his loyalists, will promptly ratify the 
protocols in the event of their endorsement by the Turkish 
parliament. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) "These changes [amendments to the law on international 
treaties] are mainly a political trick with which the authorities 
are trying to show Turkey that they have such an option and thereby 
to prod Turkey to ensure quick protocol ratification," said Artsvik 
Minasian, a Dashnak MP.  Armen Rustamian labeled the changes as 
"cosmetic."  Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian confided to 
us that initially the authorities were inclined to come up with much 
more radical amendments to enable signature withdrawal, but 
subsequently, in the light of a more positive tone from Turkey, 
decided to move forward with a "softer version."  He implied that 
since the President had declared his intent to initiate some kind of 
amendments to the law, the government had to come up with something, 
even if only to articulate steps already available to the 
government. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The amendments clarify the mechanisms for terminating or 
suspending the procedures for entering into an international treaty. 
 According to contacts, the right to terminate the process is 
already granted to a party by the Vienna Convention on the Law of 
Treaties.  Regarding suspension, the bylaws of the National Assembly 
provide ample mechanisms to delay indefinitely the ratification 
process.  Thus, interlocutors view the submission of the draft 
amendments as purely a signal to the Turks and the international 
community that Armenia will pull out of the process if the Turks 
show no indication of moving to closure. 
 
MYOVANOVITCH