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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000112 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CE, INR 
NSC FOR HOVENIER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: POLAND - CIVIC PLATFORM PRIMARY GIVES SIKORSKI A 
SHOT 
 
REF: WARSAW 62 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Lee Feinstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  Civic Platform's (PO) decision to break with 
longstanding Polish tradition and hold primary elections to 
decide the party's nominee for president has created an 
opening for FM Radoslaw Sikorski, one of two declared 
candidates for the nomination.  While the majority of party 
members personally favor Sikorski's opponent, Sejm Speaker 
Bronislaw Komorowski, a growing number feel that Sikorski 
stands a better chance of soundly defeating incumbent 
President Lech Kaczynski.  According to PO insiders, the 
party's 45,000 members will ultimately have to decide whether 
Sikorski's ability to attract young voters outweighs his lack 
of political experience and the risk that he might be "too 
independent" as president.  Sikorski's greater strength in 
current polls could mean a more dramatic PO victory in the 
September-October presidential elections, which would leave 
the party well positioned ahead of local elections 
(November-December 2010) and parliamentary elections in 2011. 
 According to recent polls, either Sikorski or Komorowski 
would defeat Kaczynski in a head-to-head race.  The main 
question is by how large a margin.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Civic Platform's (PO) national board voted 
February 16 to hold primary elections to decide the party's 
nominee for president.  The PO's approximately 45,000 members 
will be asked to vote by Internet or mail for either Sejm 
Speaker Bronislaw Komorowski or FM Radoslaw Sikorski. 
Ballots must be submitted by the end of March.  The winner 
will be announced in early April and formally nominated at 
the party's May 16 convention.  The PO's decision marks a 
break with the longstanding Polish tradition that party 
leaders choose election candidates.  A primary would validate 
the eventual candidate, whether FM Sikorski or Speaker 
Komorowski, thus easing potential friction within PO that 
could arise through a heated, six-week internal campaign. 
Thus far, Komorowski and Sikorski have spoken highly of each 
other and pledged to support whomever is chosen to be the 
party's nominee.  The candidates' respective backers within 
PO have been less restrained. 
 
SIKORSKI V. KOMOROWSKI 
 
¶3. (C) While Komorowski is favored by the majority of board 
members and most of PO's regional leadership, opening the 
ballot to the party's entire membership could benefit 
Sikorski, who is widely seen as more attractive to young 
voters.  High youth turnout in 2007 tipped the electoral 
balance in PO's favor. 
 
¶4. (C) Most party members prefer Komorowski, who has been a 
PO member since the party was founded and is viewed as more 
reliable and less of a wild card.  In addition there is 
concern about Sikorski's loyalty.  He joined PO in December 
2007 after breaking with the opposition Law and Justice 
(PiS).  Sikorski caucused with PiS in parliament and served 
as defense minister under the PiS government from September 
2005-February 2007.  He left PiS because of differences with 
PiS chair Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin of the current 
president.  Despite these concerns,  a growing number of PO 
members say they believe Sikorski has a better chance of 
soundly defeating incumbent President Kaczynski.  A battle 
between former allies is likely to increase voter turnout, 
which would favor PO, and Sikorski is widely considered to be 
a stronger campaigner.  A dramatic victory would leave PO 
well positioned ahead of local elections in November/December 
and parliamentary elections in 2011. 
 
¶5. (C) Michal Szczerba, a PO member of parliament who 
recently joined Komorowski's campaign team, acknowledged the 
challenges of drawing young voters to the polls in support of 
Komorowski.  Like Kaczynski, Komorowski tends to be stiff and 
formal in public appearances.  He and the president are 
approximately the same age (Kaczynski is 3 years older than 
Komorowski) and both viewed as professional politicians. 
"How will we get young voters excited about a race between 
two grandfathers?" Szczerba asked. 
 
¶6. (C) Szczerba predicted support within PO for Sikorski 
would level off.  While acknowledging that Sikorski would win 
if primary elections were open to non-members of PO, he 
expressed confidence that party members would choose 
Komorowski's "experience and predictability" over the risk 
that Sikorski, as president, might be "too independent." 
COMMENT: In addition, prolonged tensions with Belarus could 
cause voters to question Sikorski's credentials as a 
 
WARSAW 00000112  002 OF 002 
 
 
statesman.  Sikorski has been the main architect of Poland's 
intiative to engage the Lukashenka regime (reported septel). 
END COMMENT. 
 
¶7. (C) The fact that Komorowski is supported by the majority 
of PO's national board, including PM Tusk's Number Two, 
Grzegorz Schetyna, will also help Komorowski tremendously, as 
will the endorsement of former FM Wladyslaw Bartoszewski.  PO 
members also fear that Sikorski will be caricatured by PiS as 
an "import" from outside the party -- and from outside Poland. 
 
WHY PRIMARIES? 
 
¶8. (C) By holding a primary, the already strong PO aims to 
present itself as the more democratic party, further 
distancing PO from the opposition Law and Justice (PiS), 
which is tightly controlled by Jaroslaw Kaczynski.  The 
primaries also give PO free publicity and virtually ensure 
the party's politicians will dominate the news for the next 
six weeks. 
 
¶9. (C) Some pundits dismissed the decision to hold primaries 
as a preemptive maneuver by PM Tusk to diffuse blame in the 
event PO's candidate is defeated.  Tusk says, however, that 
support for primary elections was among the PO's founding 
principles.  According to Michal Marcinkiewicz, a 26-year-old 
PO parliamentarian, holding primary elections will innoculate 
Tusk and the party against accusations from PO founder and 
former Tusk confidante Andrzej Olechowski, who is running for 
president as an independent, that Tusk has abandoned his 
vision of building a modern, transparent, democratic 
political party.  Tusk also hopes that primary elections will 
ease deep-seated public distrust of politicians -- at least 
distrust of PO politicians -- and help to increase PO's 
membership. 
 
¶10. (C) Szczerba acknowledged the more utilitarian aspects of 
the decision to hold primaries.  By absolving himself of 
responsibility for choosing PO's candidate, Tusk does not 
have to choose between leaders of the various factions within 
the party.  By staying above the fray, Tusk will be able to 
maintain firm control of the party and keep the factions 
united.  In addition, the PO's long-term viability will not 
be threatened if PO's candidate loses the presidential 
election.  Throughout the election, Tusk will remain the face 
of the party, Szczerba said. 
 
¶11. (C) Marcinkiewicz agreed that concerns about PO divisions 
arising from the primary are overstated.  As an example, he 
cited Tusk's response to February 10 anti-Sikorski comments 
made by PO's Janusz Palikot, a Komorowski backer.  Palikot 
publicly expressed concern about "the independence and strong 
international position" of Sikorski's wife -- an American 
citizen who writes a column for The Washington Post.  After 
Palikot's comments hit the newswires, Tusk told PO 
parliamentarians that he would expel any party member -- the 
prominent Palikot included -- who made divisive public 
comments. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶12. (C) After Tusk announced his decision not to run for the 
presidency on January 28, he failed to execute a plan to 
install his personal choice, Komorowski.  As a result, Tusk 
has now delegated the decision to his party's 45,000 members, 
opening a new chapter in Poland's democratic transformation 
-- a presidential primary. 
 
FEINSTEIN