VZCZCXRO0071
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHWR #0111/01 0531752
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 221752Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9439
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000111 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CE, EUR/UMB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/22/2020 
TAGS: BO PGOV PHUM PL PREL
SUBJECT: POLISH EXPECTATIONS ON BELARUS "TORPEDOED" 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER RUPERT FINKE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND ( 
D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. MFA officials say that Polish expectations 
for improved relations with Minsk were "torpedoed" by 
Belarus's recent seizure of a Polish cultural center in 
Iwieniec and the detention of several dozen Polish activists. 
 One official characterized FM Sikorski's February 12 
tete-a-tete with Belarusian FM Martynov as a tough exchange. 
The MFA will continue to talk to Belarusian authorities in 
the hope that Belarus will recognize its "blunder" and 
reverse course.  If not, Poland will selectively apply visa 
controls, review economic assistance, and seek international 
support for excluding Belarus from participating in Western 
initiatives, including the economic elements of the EU's 
Eastern Partnership.  Sikorski's supporters and detractors 
tell us that the Foreign Minister--who spearheaded Poland's 
efforts to ease relations with Belarus a year ago--has 
suffered a political bruising on a well-publicized and 
emotional issue just as he began his campaign to become the 
PO presidential candidate.  END SUMMARY. 
 
A TOUGH EXCHANGE WITH MARTYNOV 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) The recent arrests of ethnic Poles in Belarus has been 
the leading foreign policy story in Poland's major media for 
the past week, putting intense pressure on the Government. 
Jaroslaw Bratkiewicz, the MFA's Eastern Policy director, told 
a gathering of foreign diplomats on February 16 that the 
controversy dominated FM Sikorski's one-on-one meeting with 
his Belarusian counterpart in Warsaw.  Bratkiewicz 
characterized the conversation as a flurry of "arguments and 
counterarguments."  He said Sikorski proposed ways in which 
Warsaw could help Minsk--such as assistance in seeking loans, 
as well as gaining a seat in the Council of Baltic States and 
the Council of Europe--if Belarus respected the rights of 
ethnic Poles.  Sikorski also warned Martynov that there would 
be negative consequences if Belarus continued to repress 
ethnic Poles.  According to Bratkiewicz, Martynov agreed 
there should be a de-escalation of the conflict, but was 
otherwise noncommittal. 
 
¶3. (C) The Foreign Minister himself privately told U.S. 
officials that he had a "good meeting" with Martynov, whom he 
characterized as "better than his government."  However, 
Sikorski conceded that the Belarusian government had started 
arresting members of the ethnic Polish community a few days 
after his meeting. 
 
SIKORSKI'S ABOUT-FACE 
--------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Sikorski, who led the charge a year ago to ease 
relations with Belarus, has aggressively sought to minimize 
the political fallout from an emotional issue.  In a quick 
turnaround from his conciliatory approach to the Belarusian 
regime, Sikorski has assumed a tough public stance and is 
aggressively implementing countermeasures against Belarus. 
Sikorski will lead the upcoming Foreign Affairs Council in 
considering fresh sanctions, and he is reaching out to the 
U.S. and international institutions to apply similar 
pressure.  He has twice recalled Poland's Ambassador to 
Belarus for consultations, publicly touted his tough 
"man-to-man" meeting with Martynov, and announced that the 
MFA would implement visa restrictions against Belarusians 
(i.e. pro-government journalists and members of the 
Belarusian-supported version of the Union of Poles) who work 
against Polish interests. 
 
¶5. (C) Sikorski also coordinated with President Kaczynski on 
the latter's letter to Lukashenko calling for his personal 
intervention, and won public statements of support for the 
Union of Poles from EU High Representative for Foreign 
Affairs Ashton and European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek. 
 The Polish Sejm (lower house of Parliament) passed a 
resolution on February 17 condemning the actions against the 
Union of Poles in Belarus. 
 
¶6. (C) MFA officials told us they will keep communication 
lines open with Belarusian counterparts in the hope that 
Belarus will soon realize its "blunder" and reverse course. 
If not, then Poland will seek international support in 
limiting Belarusian participation in Western initiatives, 
including the economic development aspects of the EU's 
Eastern Partnership that Belarus had been enthusiastic about 
implementing.  It will also seek to limit Belarus's access to 
funds from the IMF, EBRD, and EU.  MFA development assistance 
 
WARSAW 00000111  002 OF 002 
 
 
officials have stated publicly that continued economic 
assistance to Belarus--the top recipient of Polish aid after 
Afghanistan--is contingent on an end to the crackdown on 
Union of Poles leadership. However, MFA officials made it 
clear to us they would not seek to curtail people-to-people 
contacts between Poland and Belarus, as evidenced by the 
February 12 signing of the local cross border traffic 
agreement. 
 
TROUBLE ON THE HOMEFRONT 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. (C) In the domestic sphere, Sikorski has suffered a 
setback that could damage his presidential ambitions. 
Bratkiewicz told us that Sikorski understood the risk of his 
engagement policy, as well as last week's meeting with 
Martynov, but admitted the setbacks had provided the 
opposition with ample ammunition "at an inopportune time" for 
Sikorski's political goals. The opposition PiS party senses 
blood in the water and is leveraging the issue to damage 
Sikorski's credibility.  Member of the European Parliament 
Pawel Kowal (PiS) told the press that it was time for PM Tusk 
to intervene after Sikorski's policy "ended in such defeat." 
PiS Leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski publicly alleged that Sikorski 
has been sympathetic to Belarusian interests.  Some within 
Sikorski's own party also foresee trouble.  Sejm deputy 
Robert Tyszkiewicz (Civic Platform, PO) told us that 
Sikorski's presidential bid within the PO could be 
jeopardized if the Belarus issue continues to burn. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) In a political season, Poland's earlier engagement 
policy with Belarus is being depicted as a setback for the 
Foreign Minister.  Sikorski,s opponents are attempting to 
undermine his image as a protector of Poles and Polish 
interests abroad by highlighting his decision to meet with 
Martynov while Belarusian authorities rounded up ethnic 
Poles.  Sikorski has pushed back against the Belarusians very 
aggressively, but as long as the plight of ethnic Poles 
dominates the media, it will be difficult for him to turn the 
political conversation to a more favorable subject. 
 
FEINSTEIN