VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUM #0061 0570824
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 260824Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ULAANBAATAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3440
INFO RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA 0309
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6633
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2889
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 4093
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 3721

UNCLAS ULAANBAATAR 000061 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/CM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MG
SUBJECT: Competition for MPRP Chairmanship Intensifies; Coalition at 
Stake 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Various members of the Mongolian People's 
Revolutionary Party (MPRP) Steering Council are pushing to set a 
date for a party conference where a new leader would be chosen to 
succeed the ailing S. Bayar.  Bayar's prolonged illness and ongoing 
treatment in Seattle has put party work on hold in the run up to the 
Spring session of Parliament.  Nevertheless, he has made no 
political statement in recent days except to say that the coalition 
government with the Democratic Party must continue.  Last week, MPRP 
Secretary General and contender to succeed Bayar, U. Khurelsukh, 
traveled to consult Bayar.   Observers believe that even if a party 
conference does not oust Bayar from the chairmanship, it is likely 
to discontinue the increasingly unpopular coalition government. 
Reports state that the MPRP is likely to hold its conference on 
March 20.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (SBU) Despite Bayar's grip on life in a Seattle hospital, the 
MPRP search for a new party leader has already begun.  Current Prime 
Minister, S. Batbold, stands the best chance, as traditionally the 
two posts have been held by the same person.  The current 
circumstances are exceptional; the resignation of the highly 
esteemed S. Bayar as Prime Minister for health reasons was a shock 
to the party membership, who out of respect acceded to his continued 
chairmanship.  Now, with the passage of time they have begun to 
question the wisdom of that decision. 
 
¶3. (SBU) S. Batbold himself is unlikely to challenge S. Bayar if the 
latter decides to carry on.  Bayar handpicked him, and to challenge 
him directly would be regarded as an act of ingratitude.  Rather, he 
has set up an ambitious agenda over the course of his first 100 
days.  He substituted one minister and promised several reforms 
relating to financial markets, deciding who should exploit the 
massive Tavan Tolgoi mine, and overhauling the higher education 
system. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Despite this agenda that will require strong coordination 
within the MPRP, five are reportedly eager to usurp the party 
chairmanship.  These include Vice Prime Minister M. Enkhbold, 
Minister for Internal Affairs Ts. Nyamdorj, ex-president N. 
Enkhbayar, Secretary General U. Khurelsukh, and MP U. Enkhtuvshin 
who chairs the Parliamentary Standing Committee on State Structure. 
¶M. Enkhbold who was Mayor of Ulaanbaatar between 1999-2005 and then 
chaired the MPRP for 3 years, has little support within the party 
but retains loyal men in key positions.  These include Speaker of 
the Parliament D. Demberel, Mayor of Ulaanbaatar G. Munkhbayar, 
Minister of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry T. Badamjunai, and 
Chairman of the Ulaanbaatar City legislature T.Bilegt.  The former 
Prime Minister is undoubtedly able to finance a formidable campaign 
adequately given his ownership of a construction conglomerate. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Khurelsukh has been increasingly visible in recent weeks. 
He is spearheading fundraising for the construction of a new party 
headquarters, as the old one was incinerated during the unrest of 
July 1, 2008.  This project has brought him new exposure as the 
Democratic Party is simultaneously building a new headquarters as 
well.  Khurelsukh also launched a nationwide tour, promising to 
visit party officials across the 21 Aimags (provinces) to meet with 
the Party's grass roots membership and discuss internal politics. 
Known for his imperious style, his rise, some observers suggest, may 
presage something of a regression from the recent foray into 
inclusive and translucent politics. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Former President and Prime Minister Enkhbayar remains 
silent about his intentions, but the TV station he owns has gone to 
great lengths to criticize the government.  The popular channel has 
also recently publicized his efforts to supply struggling herders 
with fodder and his lecture in Alexandria, Egypt.  According to some 
reports, Minister of Justice and Home Affairs Nyamdorj is evidently 
keen to throw his name in as well.  One of the longest serving MPs, 
he has a strong regional constituency from the west. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Finally, MP U. Enkhtuvshin is the most recent addition to 
the candidate pool.  His chances are fair.  He is the former 
Secretary General of the Party, and a leader of its 
Tradition-Reform-Democracy-Justice wing, aka the Sand 13.  In his 
capacity as the head of the working group to investigate the matter, 
he is one of the few MPs to have accessed classified information 
regarding the state suppression of the July 1, 2008 unrest. 
Enkhtuvshin is thus one of but a few who know the truth regarding 
the roles of former president N. Enkhbayar and former Prime Minister 
¶S. Bayar in the violent incident.  There are concerns that he is 
being offered the job in exchange for withholding secrets regarding 
that fateful day. 
 
HILL