VZCZCXRO3978
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #0338 0470550
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 160550Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5462
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 000338 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS
SUBJECT: MOFAZ AND LIVNI DO BATTLE AHEAD OF "DECISIVE" 
PARTY MEETING LATER THIS MONTH 
 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 00137 
     ¶B. 09 TEL AVIV 02813 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Kadima infighting continues ahead of the 
Kadima Council meeting scheduled for February 24 that is to 
consider a proposal to move party leadership primaries up 
from the scheduled date of 2013 to some time in 2010.  Former 
Defense Minister and party number two Shaul Mofaz reportedly 
has threatened to split the party, with all the personal 
political risks that entails for him.  Kadima Chairman Tzipi 
Livni's handling of the tensions with Mofaz has again 
highlighted criticisms of her leadership and decisiveness. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Israeli journalists the second week of February 
highlighted the continuing escalation in tensions between 
Mofaz and Livni.  Yediot Aharonoth, the leading Israeli 
daily, reported on February 11 that Mofaz had given Livni an 
ultimatum to make an unequivocal decision by the end of the 
month whether or not to move up the primary date.  Mofaz 
previously had declared he had no intention of splitting the 
party, as his preference was to lead it into the next 
election and become prime minister.  Mofaz's associates have 
been tight-lipped about their planning, so it is difficult to 
tell whether his threats to leave the party are genuine or 
just further posturing.  A decision to leave the party, 
though, would be a serious gamble for Mofaz because while he 
does not enjoy being a small fish in the big pond that is 
Kadima, his long-term political fortunes probably would not 
rise by being the big fish in the small pond that would be a 
break-away faction. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The lingering battle is not helping Livni 
politically, as it reinforces doubts that she can lead 
effectively.  Not only does she appear to be struggling to 
keep the rest of the party unified, but her unwillingness to 
provide a final response to the primary election question 
provides yet another indication that Livni has difficulties 
acting decisively.  Her associates continue to leak reports 
to the press that she has solid backing within the party to 
both withstand an effort to bring forward the vote and 
prevail in the primary whenever it is held.  They also note 
that a Mofaz departure would rid the party of some of its 
more divisive elements.  This begs the question, then, why 
Livni has not chosen to call Mofaz's bluff and either have 
the vote or reject his proposal outright and risk him leaving 
the party. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to observe from 
the sidelines, occasionally having an emissary dangle new 
offers to entice Mofaz and other erstwhile Kadima member to 
leave that party, according to Israeli press reports.  He 
also may entice wavering Kadima members with a peace process 
strategy that they feel comfortable with.  One thing 
Netanyahu will have difficulty offering are reserved slots on 
the Likud slate in the next election for any Kadima 
defectors.  Newly elected and generally hard-line Likud MKs 
have spoken out against such a move, citing concerns about 
the "left wing" orientation of Kadima MKs.  More likely, 
however, these new MKs know that their prospects for getting 
elected to the next Knesset would decline if senior Kadima 
MKs made the switch to Likud. 
Cunningham