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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5322
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C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000264 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS SY LE IS
SUBJECT: WAR OF WORDS WITH SYRIA 
 
Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
 ¶1.  (C) Summary.  Tensions are higher than usual between 
Israel and Syria this week following an exchange of comments 
on the possible outbreak of war.  A February 1 comment by 
Defense Minister Barak to the effect that the alternative to 
opening negotiations with Syria could be the outbreak of war 
was intended to signal to an Israeli audience Barak's sense 
of urgency over resuming negotiations, but it appears to have 
come across to the Syrian leadership as a threat.  The 
Syrians responded, with President Asad saying that Israel is 
seeking war, not peace, while Foreign Minister Muallem 
commented publically that a war would include attacks on 
Israeli cities.  Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman raised 
the ante February 4, saying that a Syrian attack on Israel 
would lead to the destruction of the Syrian regime, leading 
opposition MK Mofaz to call for Israeli leaders to avoid 
inflammatory rhetoric.  DAO reports no sign of unusual IDF 
military activity in the north.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Tensions with Syria burst into a war of words 
February 3-4.  After weeks of top-level Israeli complaints 
behind closed doors that Syria is expanding its military 
cooperation with Hizballah, Defense Minister Barak was widely 
quoted February 1 as having told a group of senior IDF 
officers that "in the absence of an arrangement with Syria, 
we are liable to enter a belligerent clash with it that could 
reach the point of an all-out regional war."  Barak went on 
to say that after such a war, Israel would sit down with 
Syria and be faced with negotiating the same issues that have 
been on the agenda for the past 15 years. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) While to an Israeli audience, Barak's comments were 
clearly meant to underscore the importance he attaches to 
engaging Syria diplomatically rather than risk a slide toward 
war, the Syrian leadership appears to have interpreted 
Barak's remarks as a threat.  During a February 3 visit to 
Damascus by Spanish Foreign Minister Moratinos, President 
Asad was quoted in the Israeli press as saying, "Israel is 
not serious about achieving peace, since all the facts show 
that she is pushing the region toward war, not peace." 
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem took the point further, 
and was quoted in the Israeli press as saying that Israel was 
planting the seeds of war by threatening attacks on Iran, 
Lebanon and Gaza.  Ha'aretz quoted Muallem as saying, "I tell 
them (the Israelis) to stop acting like thugs.  Do not test 
the resolve of Syria.  You Israelis, you know that war at 
this time will reach your cities.  If such a war breaks 
out...it will indeed be total war, whether it begins in South 
Lebanon or Syria."  (Note:  The latest furor follows a 
January 23 intervention by Netanyahu to assure Lebanon that 
Israel has no intention of attacking it following an earlier 
statement by Minister without Portfolio Yossi Peled said 
publically that war with Lebanon was inevitable due to 
Hizballah's build-up of rockets with Syrian support.) 
 
¶4.  (SBU) On February 4, Foreign Minister Lieberman responded 
by threatening the survival of the Asad regime.  Speaking at 
a conference at Bar Ilan University, Lieberman was reported 
to have said, "Asad should know that if he attacks, he will 
not only lose the war, neither he nor his family will remain 
in power."  Lieberman went on to say, "Our message should be 
that if Asad's father lost a war but remained in power, the 
son should know that an attack would cost him his regime." 
The Prime Minister's office has not yet commented on 
Lieberman's remarks, but the opposition Kadima party's number 
two member, Shaul Mofaz, complained to Israel Radio that 
Israeli leaders must not play into Iran's hands by making 
"inflammatory" statements.  Mofaz added that Israel's 
leadership "must be very responsible, very restrained, and 
level headed about what it says." 
 
¶5.  (C) Comment:  We are convinced that Barak's remarks were 
in fact meant to convey his sense of urgency about resuming 
negotiations with Syria, but the Syrian response and now 
Lieberman's characteristically bombastic threat against the 
Asad family have genuinely raised tensions.  According to 
DAO, quiet prevails in the north and there are no indciations 
of unusual Israeli military preparations, but the situation 
is tense. 
Cunningham