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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3395
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000198 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2020 
TAGS: PREL KDEM TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN OPPOSITION PARTY SEEKS TO EXTEND WINNING 
STREAK IN UPCOMING LEGISLATIVE BY-ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: AIT Pol Chief Dave Rank for reasons 1.4 (b/d) 
 
 ¶1. (C) Summary: The opposition Democratic Progressive Party 
(DPP) hopes to extend its winning streak in four legislative 
by-elections on February 27.  The party is strongly favored 
to win the one seat it previously held and is expected to be 
competitive for the three seats previously held by 
legislators from the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party. A gain of 
one or more seats could provide further momentum to the 
opposition party, which has won a string of local elections 
in recent months after badly losing the presidential and 
Legislative Yuan elections in 2008.  It also would underscore 
President Ma Ying-jeou's continuing difficulty uniting 
squabbling local party factions and inspring traditional 
party supporters.  No matter how many seats the DPP wins, 
however, it will not affect the balance of power in the 
Legislative Yuan, where the KMT has an overwhelming majority. 
 
----------------------------------- 
WHAT SHOULD BE A KMT CAKEWALK ISN'T 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) By-elections on February 27 will fill four Legislative 
Yuan (LY) seats vacated by winners of county magistrate race 
in December. The opposition DPP is expected to hold its seat 
in southern Chiayi County, but the ruling KMT is expecting a 
tough time hanging on to seats in its strongholds of Taoyuan 
and Hsinchu counties in the north and Hualien county in the 
east.  In each case local factional rivalry is expected to 
siphon off votes from the KMT candidates, some of whom are 
relatively unknown or have proven to be ineffective 
campaigners.  Local media quoted President Ma, who also is 
chairman of the KMT, as saying he hoped to win at least two 
seats.  One KMT source who correctly predicted his party 
would lose all three legislative by-elections last month said 
the DPP could win three of four seats now up for grabs. The 
opposition party also won a legislative by-election in 
September and had a strong showing in local elections in 
December. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
HUALIEN: DPP CANDIDATE MAKES INROADS IN KMT STRONGHOLD 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶3. (C) Hualien is a huge county on Taiwan's east coast that 
is roughly equally divided between four groups: aborigines, 
Hakkas, descendants of settlers from Fujian province, and 
families who fled China six decades ago with KMT 
Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek.  The KMT usually can count on 
about 70 percent of the county vote; Ma got 77 percent in the 
2008 presidential election.  The KMT candidate in the 
by-election, however, is expected to garner far less support 
because traditional KMT voters are likely to support an 
independent challenger backed by the recently-elected and 
widely-popular county magistrate, Fu Kun-chi.  Fu himself was 
kicked out of the KMT recently for defying the party and 
running a rogue independent campaign for magistrate.  Fu 
acknowledged problems with his candidate -- media reported he 
had a criminal record and and had served a four-year prison 
term for murder -- but vowed to nonetheless spend "millions 
of NT dollars" (i.e., tens of thousands of USD) on 
last-minute advertising for him. 
 
¶4. (C) The KMT candidate, an associate professor and son of a 
former county magistrate, has been, by most accounts, a 
listless campaigner.  In contrast, DPP candidate Bi-Khim 
Hsiao -- a longtime AIT contact who is director of the 
party's Department of International Affairs -- has run what 
local journalists described as an excellent campaign.  Young 
and energetic, she has tirelessly crisscrossed the county in 
search of votes. Whereas Fu and his candidate have campaigned 
for a new highway to help link the relatively remote Hualien 
with Taipei, a project that would take years, Hsiao has 
received plaudits for proposing that plane and train ticket 
prices immediately be cut in half to make travel to and from 
the region more affordable.  Hsiao also has countered 
accusations she has no personal links to Hualien with the 
slogan: "Home is where the heart is."  Her campaign has been 
devoid of the opposition party's flag, insignia and color -- 
her campaign literature is slathered in pink, not DPP green 
-- in recognition that her best chance is to campaign on her 
personality, not her party affiliation.  A few days before 
the vote, Taipei-based pollsters thought the KMT would eke 
out a win, but Hualien-based journalists gave the nod to 
Hsiao if turnout was low. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
TAOYUAN: DPP HOPES TO GAIN FROM KMT SPLIT 
----------------------------------------- 
 
TAIPEI 00000198  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) The KMT also is in danger of losing its seat in 
Taoyuan County's Zhongli City, where the KMT/DPP breakdown is 
roughly 65/35.  As in Hualien, the KMT candidate Apollo Chen 
(a Taoyuan outsider) stands to lose some Blue votes to two 
independent candidates who failed to garner the KMT party nod 
but have deeper local ties.  Two days ahead of the election, 
KMT Taoyuan County Secretary General Liu Jui-nan remained 
very nervous, noting to PolOff that a low voter turnout would 
hurt the party as it had in January, when the party 
surprisingly lost another Taoyuan legislative by-election.  A 
post-mortem of that election indicated that voters who were 
disgruntled with President Ma stayed home. In contrast, DPP 
County Executive Director Hsieh Jui-ming was optimistic party 
candidate and Zhongli native Huang Jen-chu would win.  A 
split Blue vote, Ma's poor performance, and a last-minute 
slander suit against Chen should give Huang the edge, Hsieh 
claimed to PolOff. Both KMT and DPP contacts maintained the 
race would be close, but local journalists have told us the 
DPP should prevail. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
COMMENT: A TEST OF MA'S HOLD ON THE PARTY 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C)  Perhaps the greatest significance of the by-election 
is what it will indicate about the political leadership of 
President Ma.  He campaigned hard for all four KMT 
candidates, and losses would reflect poorly on his ability to 
energize the party faithful. A bad showing also would raise 
questions about Ma's judgement in selecting candidates and 
his ability to unite local factions behind his leadership 
going into crucial municipal elections and the 2012 
presidential race.  Meanwhile, a DPP sweep would be seen as a 
major victory for the opposition but may pay only short-term 
dividends. Pro-opposition scholar Lo Chih-cheng expressed 
concern to PolOff that a strong DPP showing could create 
expectations about the party's prospects in upcoming 
elections that would be hard to meet. 
STANTON