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DE RUEHSJ #0019/01 0331501
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021501Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0312
INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 000019 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CS
SUBJECT: COSTA RICA'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN HITS ITS FINAL LEG 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: With national elections a week away, Laura 
Chinchilla of the ruling National Liberation Party (PLN) is holding 
on to first place in the race to be Costa Rica's next president. 
Most observers believe she will win more than the required forty 
percent needed to win the election in the first round, and handily 
defeat her two primary challengers.  Polls suggest that while PLN 
will retain a plurality within the Legislative Assembly, the body 
will become more fractionalized following the February 7 elections. 
In pre-election visits to important population centers, embassy 
teams found perceptions of rising crime, unemployment and growing 
voter apathy to be the primary concerns of voters.  Post will send 
fifteen staff members to visit various polling places on election 
day.  Regardless of the victor, we expect the GOCR to continue to 
be a constructive partner with the USG on our domestic and regional 
priorities.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Laura Standing Firm 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) A series of recent polls has shown Laura Chinchilla's 
support holding steady at 43-45 percent of the vote, only a week 
before national elections.  Though she couldn't claim a clear 
victory in any of Costa Rica's three televised debates, the steady 
Chinchilla held her own and put in relatively mistake-free 
performances.  With her steady polling numbers and the ruling 
National Liberation Party's (PLN) grassroots organization and 
ability to get out the vote, almost seventy percent of Costa Ricans 
expect Chinchilla to become Costa Rica's next president, according 
to a recent poll. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Chinchilla's two main challengers, Otto Guevara from the 
Libertarian Movement (ML) and Otton Solis from the Citizens Action 
Party (PAC), have been unable to inflict damage on the frontrunner 
in recent weeks.  Guevara had previously looked as if he might 
provide a true challenge to Chinchilla, and had been polling as 
high as thirty percent.  However, Chinchilla, Solis and other 
candidates have recently focused on questioning Guevara's 
questionable sources of campaign funding and libertarian policy 
ideas (including an idea to "dollarize" the economy, which Solis 
ripped to shreds in a recent debate).  The results have seen 
Guevara slipping a bit in the polls while Solis picks up some 
support, though not nearly enough to challenge Chinchilla. 
 
 
 
Legislative Assembly 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The picture is a bit more muddled in the 57-seat 
Legislative Assembly, where Costa Rica uses a complicated 
mathematical formula to award Assembly seats to parties based on 
the number of votes received by province.  The PLN should remain 
the plurality party and win around 23-25 seats, however unlike in 
years past there will be no single, large opposition party.   The 
ML and PAC should make up the second and third largest parties, but 
with only around 13 and 8 seats respectively, with the near defunct 
Social Christian Union Party (PUSC) and other smaller parties 
splitting the remaining 11 seats. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) In all likelihood, the PLN will have to form partnerships 
with some of the minority parties to accomplish any real progress 
in the Assembly (a simple majority of 29 votes is needed for most 
votes, though some require a super-majority of 38).  Political 
commentators have speculated that the centrist PUSC might serve as 
a natural partner in the Assembly, where the two parties have 
cooperated in the past.  However PUSC presidential candidate Luis 
Fishman (currently polling at 8-9 percent), who is also a candidate 
for the Assembly, recently told us that while ideologically PUSC 
and PLN have much in common, PUSC has been punished by voters in 
the past for working together with the PLN. (NOTE: The parties are 
bitter rivals stemming from the Costa Rica's 1948 civil war, and 
many PUSC/PLN supporters have viewed past collaboration between 
their parties as an example of the corruption of their political 
elites. END NOTE.)  That said, Fishman has made it clear both 
publicly and in private that he would favor a Chinchilla victory 
 
over that of Otto Guevara, and privately told us he would endorse 
Chinchilla in the event of a second round match-up between the two. 
 
 
 
 
Run-off not likely, but... 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Though unlikely, if Chinchilla were to come in under the 
forty percent mark, she would face the second place vote-getter-in 
all probability Otto Guevara-in an April 4th run-off.  Yet most 
political analysts believe that even in this case Chinchilla would 
win the run-off election, as at a base level Guevara is simply too 
conservative/libertarian for Costa Rica.  Among other proposals, he 
would scale back or completely abolish the central bank after 
dollarizing the economy, eliminate federal funding of universities, 
and cut public spending on Costa Rica's health care system.  Thus, 
the other candidates could hold their noses and lend their support 
to Chinchilla in the event of a run-off. 
 
 
 
Election Reporting and Observing 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) Throughout December and January post organized a series of 
nine visits of Mission personnel to various important population 
centers to meet with local leaders regarding their thoughts on the 
elections.  Two-person teams met with local mayors, national 
assembly candidates, religious leaders, journalists, university 
professors and businessmen to find out what issues were most 
important to voters in their areas, and how they saw the elections 
playing out locally and nationally.  The local leaders our teams 
met with consistently described ongoing perceptions of rising crime 
and worries over unemployment to be two of the primary voter 
concerns.  Those we met with were also concerned with rising voter 
apathy despite what they saw as an increase in campaign spending in 
this year's election.  Most of those we met with believed that 
Laura Chinchilla and the PLN would win the elections, though the ML 
and PAC had strong pockets of support in many of the areas we 
visited. 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) The Embassy will be sending out fifteen staff members to 
visit over thirty polling stations on election day.  Though the OAS 
and a few other international missions are also sending out small 
observing teams, the bulk of monitors/observers will be from the 
major political parties and domestic non-governmental 
organizations. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) If Chinchilla, who served as President Oscar Arias' Vice 
President until declaring her candidacy in 2008, goes on to win the 
election it could provide continuity for GOCR programs.  We expect 
her to continue to work with the USG to address security issues 
(and one of her campaign promises has been to increase spending on 
security), Costa Rica's environmental and energy challenges, and 
continued economic development, among other issues.  The Georgetown 
University graduate and former USAID contractor has said that she 
hopes to continue to improve relations between the U.S. and Costa 
Rica, and has expressed particular interest in working with the 
Secretary on international women's issues.  However, regardless of 
the victor of Sunday's elections, we expect the GOCR to continue to 
be a constructive partner with the USG on our domestic and regional 
priorities. 
ANDREW