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FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
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RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 000382 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND LFREEMAN AND INR JYAPHE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL YM
SUBJECT: YEMEN: CEASEFIRE IMPLEMENTATION CREEPS ALONG IN 
SA'ADA 
 
REF: SANAA 275 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  The February 12 ceasefire agreement between 
the ROYG and the Houthi rebels continues to hold, despite 
reports of violations and foot-dragging by the Houthis.  The 
four geographically oriented mediation committees continue to 
make slow progress, with greater success in Malahit and the 
Saudi border areas and less success in Sa'ada City and Harf 
Sufyan.  The Houthi leadership, which appears to be 
struggling to control its organization, also accuses 
government elements in Sa'ada of violating the ceasefire 
agreement.  Unfortunately, the ROYG's long-standing 
opposition to the use of international observers, its lack of 
strategic thinking and the continuing opacity of the Houthis' 
true intentions will make achieving a permanent end to the 
conflict difficult.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SLOW PROGRESS BEING MADE 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) ROYG and Houthi sources agree that substantive 
progress has been made in implementing the ceasefire 
agreement in two of the four geographically oriented 
mediation committees: the Malahit and Saudi border area 
committees have succeeded in disarmament, landmine removal 
and securing the participation of Houthi representatives. 
Mohammed al-Hawiri, head of the Saudi border committee, said 
that 70 percent of tasks had been completed in his area, 
according to February 17 local media reports.  High-level 
Houthi leaders are participating in both committees, 
according to Hassan Zayd, the al-Haq party secretary general 
with close Houthi contacts.  Independent confirmation of 
progress is difficult because the ROYG has refused 
international observers access to Sa'ada because the 
mediation committees "represent all interests," according to 
Deputy Prime Minister for Defense and Security Rashad 
al-Alimi. 
 
¶3.  (C) Significant challenges remain in Sa'ada City and Harf 
Sufyan (Amran governorate) where Houthi representatives have 
failed to participate, roads are reopening slowly and the 
Houthis are refusing to remove heavy artillery, according to 
Alimi.  Ruling General People's Congress (GPC) Permanent 
Committee member and Bakil tribal confederation leader 
Mohammed Abulahoum told PolOff on February 17 that the 
committee from Harf Sufyan (part of Bakil territory) was 
"moving along very slowly."  (Note: On the day PolOff visited 
Abulahoum, dozens of sheikhs from Harf Sufyan were at his 
Sana'a house to discuss problems with the implementation of 
the ceasefire agreement.  End Note.)  Zayd agreed that Sa'ada 
City was problematic, although he attributed it to the 
military's aggressive behavior in searching the city for 
weapons and intimidating the population. 
 
BUT VIOLATIONS CONTINUE 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Both sides report violations of the ceasefire 
agreement.  In a joint February 22 briefing for the 
diplomatic corps, Alimi and Foreign Minister Abubakir 
al-Qirbi said the Houthis have, since the February 12 
ceasefire agreement: demolished four civilian homes, killed 
six government soldiers and wounded 35, killed two civilians 
and kidnapped 19, and destroyed three government buildings. 
Local media reported on February 20 that the Houthis 
attempted to block the deployment of government troops to the 
Saudi border region.  The Houthis, who reportedly vacated the 
area on February 16, accused the military of initiating 
fighting, Zayd told PolOff on February 23.  Zayd added that 
although the Houthis had removed many checkpoints in the 
roads to and through Sa'ada, the military was not allowing 
civilians or the Houthis to use them. 
 
¶5.  (C) ROYG officials painted a picture of the Houthis as an 
unreliable, sometimes unwilling partner in the peace process. 
 "There is unanimity that the Houthis don't know what they 
want," Qirbi said.  Rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi added 
conditions that Alimi called unacceptable - removal of 
government checkpoints and redeployment of Sa'ada-based ROYG 
security forces.  The Houthis are also refusing to surrender 
removed landmines to the Yemeni military, according to Alimi. 
 Given such perceived intransigence, the ROYG is worried that 
the "Houthis are trying to use the ceasefire just to give 
their fighters a rest.  We hope this is not the case," Qirbi 
said.  Another lingering issue is the return of Saudi POWs. 
Three of the five prisoners held by the Houthis have been 
 
returned to Saudi Arabia, according to ROYG officials and 
local media reports.  The Houthis claim they do not have the 
other two prisoners, who, according to Zayd, might be dead. 
The Houthis have complained about Saudi Arabia's refusal to 
release Houthi POWs.  (Note: Saudi Assistant Defense Minister 
Prince Khaled bin Sultan said the Saudis had over 500 
"infiltrators," according to local press reports.  End Note.) 
 
¶6.  (C) It appears that the Houthis, and perhaps to a lesser 
extent the ROYG, are having trouble controlling elements of 
their organizations.  Qirbi complained about Houthi "elements 
that have a vested interest in seeing the war continue" and 
were therefore blocking the peace process.  On the other 
hand, Abdulmalik al-Houthi lamented the "continuing obstacles 
and violations by warlords and some influential figures who 
do not seek peace" in a February 16 statement on Houthi media 
outlet almenpar.com.  Zayd said that the continued presence 
of Salafis, specifically at Sa'ada's Dimaj Institute, and 
Northwest Regional Commander Brigadier General Ali Muhsin 
al-Ahmar, perceived by many as the architect of the Sa'ada 
War, were obstacles to a permanent peace.  "There are a lot 
of individuals on the ground doing their own thing ) on both 
sides," Zayd said. 
 
PREVENTING A SEVENTH WAR 
------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (C) Reconstruction has not yet begun, and Qirbi said any 
significant rebuilding will wait until there is confidence 
that the war will not resume again.  Prime Minister Ali 
Mujawwar, who hosted the first reconstruction committee 
meeting last week, plans to hold a second meeting after a 
full assessment of needs on the ground is complete.  Although 
UN Permanent Representative Pratibha Mehta said the UN had 
been planning to reopen its Sa'ada City office, Alimi said 
the time was not right for international organizations to 
re-establish a presence in Sa'ada.  Alimi said "local 
governments" should return first and re-establish security 
before any international organizations returned.  According 
to Mehta and Zayd, the IDP population is not returning to 
Sa'ada, which both attributed to the displaced taking a "wait 
and see" approach. 
 
¶8.  (C) Consumed with the mechanics of disarming a 
thousands-strong rebel army and attempting to reassert 
control over de facto enemy territory, the ROYG has not yet 
focused on a long-term solution to the conflict.  President 
Saleh has suggested that the Houthis form a political party 
in order to reintegrate into the legitimate political 
process.  The GPC's Abulahoum said that his conversations 
within the ruling party leadership and with the Saudis in 
February led him to believe that President Saleh intended to 
give the Houthis greater political autonomy in Sa'ada along 
with a robust development package, although the president has 
not announced this publicly.  The Houthis' long-term goals 
also remain unclear.  According to a mid-February statement 
by Houthi spokesman Abdusalam al-Zabia, the Houthis want: 1) 
the release of detainees, 2) security in Sa'ada, 3) local 
councils to take over governance, 4) protection of all 
civilians (including those who fought with the Houthis), 5) 
compensation for war damage, and 6) religious freedom. 
(Comment: The majority of these conditions appear more 
applicable to a short-term ceasefire and less useful in 
establishing a long-term solution to the underlying causes of 
the Houthi rebellion. End Comment.) 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C) President Saleh and his government appear to be 
genuinely concerned that the current ceasefire may not hold. 
The ROYG, however, says it is struggling to find an equally 
committed partner in the Houthis.  While divining the rebels' 
true intentions is a huge challenge, the ROYG's predictable 
but nonetheless unfortunate refusal to consider international 
observers and its lack of strategic, innovative thinking on 
permanent solutions to the problem are also unhelpful.  How 
will the ROYG go about rehabilitating and reintegrating a 
war-torn governorate of 800,000 people?  The chattering 
classes, already talking about when the "seventh war" will 
begin, are not being facetious.  Sooner rather than later, 
the ROYG needs to develop a long-term solution that destroys 
the roots of the Houthi rebellion and puts a permanent end to 
the Sa'ada conflict.  END COMMENT. 
SECHE