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C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 000275 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND LFREEMAN AND INR JYAPHE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL YM SA
SUBJECT: YEMEN: SUDDEN QUIET IN SA'ADA AS ROYG AND REBELS 
AGREE TO CEASEFIRE 
 
REF: SANAA 203 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  President Saleh and rebel leader Abdulmalik 
al-Houthi agreed to suspend hostilities and began to 
implement a ceasefire agreement at midnight on February 12. 
After weeks of behind-the-scenes negotiations, it appears 
that the reconciliation and reconstruction process has begun 
to inch forward.  Observers are hopeful that a joint 
Yemeni-Houthi-Saudi mediation commission, which reportedly 
began its thorny work on the morning of February 12, will 
make progress in demilitarizing war-torn Sa'ada and beginning 
the lengthy process of rebuilding northern Yemen.  Although 
both sides appear to be in synch in their desire to end the 
current round of fighting, the long-term success of the 
ceasefire agreement will require a concerted, patient effort 
by both the government and the Houthis to move forward 
together.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) After weeks of a rumored end to the sixth round of 
fighting between the ROYG and Houthi rebels that began in 
August (reftel), President Saleh made a televised 
announcement on February 11 that a ceasefire would take 
effect at midnight on February 12.  According to a statement 
posted at 12:38 AM on Houthi media outlet almenpar.net, rebel 
leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi ordered all fighters to "cease 
fire at the time announced by the government, and after the 
stabilization of the ceasefire, the roads will be opened, 
checkpoints lifted and forces withdrawn from the mountains." 
Although reports of fighting and casualties continued through 
mid-week, local observers, the media and post contacts all 
reported that Sa'ada had been quiet since the morning of 
February 11.  Local independent media outlet Mareb Press 
called the president's announcement "the end of the longest 
and bloodiest round of fighting between the Houthis and the 
government since the inception of the war in 2004." 
 
¶3.  (C) On February 6, the ROYG presented the Houthis with a 
timetable for implementing the six-point ceasefire plan, 
which Houthi accepted on February 8.  (Note: The length of 
the timetable remains unknown.  The six conditions required 
of the Houthis are: withdrawal from government buildings, 
removal of roadblocks, return of seized weapons, freeing of 
prisoners, abandoning mountain positions and cessation of 
attacks on Saudi Arabia.  End Note.)  A possible facilitator 
of the agreement was the removal of individuals seen by 
President Saleh as standing in the way of a settlement: In 
early February, Houthi mediator Hassan Zayd, the al-Haq party 
secretary general who Saleh villainized as a disingenuous 
Houthi supporter, was replaced with Sheikh Ali Nasser 
Qirshah.  On February 5, Sa'ada Governor Hassan Manna, 
brother of recently arrested arms dealer Faris Manna, was 
replaced by Taha Abdullah Hajer.  Local media and post 
contacts also suggested that the ceasefire was a result of 
perceived pressure on both the ROYG and the Houthis generated 
by the January London conference on Yemen and the upcoming 
meeting in Riyadh in late February. 
 
PICKING UP THE PIECES 
--------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) The mediation commission appointed by President Saleh 
and comprised of members of Parliament, the Shoura Council 
and the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) was on its way 
to Sa'ada in the early morning hours of February 12, local 
journalist Mohammed al-Ghobari told PolOff.  Ghobari added 
that the commission would be joined in Sa'ada by 
representatives from the Houthis as well as Saudi Arabia, 
which has been fighting the rebels since November. 
Presidential Advisor Dr. Abdulkarim al-Eryani announced on 
February 6 that the mediation commission would be comprised 
of five committees, each tasked with a different aspect of 
the reconciliation and reconstruction process: reopening 
roads, Houthi withdrawal from key positions, return of the 
250,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), release of 
prisoners held in connection to the conflict and dealing with 
the social consequences of the war to prevent future rounds 
of conflict.  Eryani reportedly traveled to Doha with news of 
the ceasefire and plans to discuss the possibility of 
securing financial support for reconstruction from the Qatari 
government, according to local media reports.  (Note: Qatar 
was heavily involved in mediating the ceasefire and financing 
reconstruction after the 2007 round of fighting in Sa'ada. 
End Note.) 
 
WILL IT LAST? 
 
------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) The current ceasefire appears to have the momentum 
needed to end fighting and move forward on a mutually 
agreeable framework.  "Both sides were exhausted and waiting 
for just such an arrangement to halt the fighting," Ghobari 
said.  Presidential Advisor for Sa'ada Affairs Mohammed 
Azzan, who has been intimately involved in mediating the 
Sa'ada conflict for years, told PolOff on February 12 that he 
was "finally hopeful that things are moving in the right 
direction."  Azzan pointed out that President Saleh's direct 
involvement in the form of a nationally televised 
announcement, lengthy meetings with members of the mediation 
commission and detailed attention to recent negotiations were 
positive indicators of the seriousness of the ceasefire. 
ROYG military contacts told EmbOffs in recent days that they 
were already making plans to begin moving some troops out of 
Sa'ada in anticipation of the ceasefire.  In a February 11 
press conference, the JMP called for a ceasefire in Sa'ada as 
the first step to a comprehensive national cure for the 
effects of war and an end to the suffering of displaced 
persons, according to Islah-affiliated al-Sahwa news. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Even in their acceptances of the ceasefire framework, 
both sides warned that its success was contingent on the 
other side's continued commitment to the process.  Although 
the government and the Houthis have for many weeks said they 
are prepared to end hostilities, the choreography of a 
ceasefire agreement has been complicated, with neither side 
wanting to commit itself first.  It appears, finally, that 
the Houthis and the ROYG are now willing partners in this 
process.  The success of reconciliation and reconstruction, 
however, will require the two sides to move forward together, 
shedding suspicion of the others' intentions as they proceed. 
 END COMMENT. 
SECHE