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RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT 0194
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0131
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 1090
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS 0374
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

S E C R E T SANAA 000220 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND LFREEMAN AND INR JYAPHE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL YM
SUBJECT: BACK TO THE FUTURE: YEMEN'S SOUTHERN MOVEMENT 
SPLITS BETWEEN OLD RIVALS 
 
REF: 09 SANAA 2073 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (S) SUMMARY.  Supporters of the Southern Movement appear 
increasingly polarized between fierce political rivals from 
the former People's Democratic Republic of Yemen - President 
Ali Nasser Mohammed and Vice President Ali Salim al-Beidh. 
While Ali Nasser and his followers remain publicly supportive 
of a federalized solution under the umbrella of unity, Beidh 
has led his supporters ) most prominent among them Tariq 
al-Fadhli - down an increasingly violent, pro-secession road. 
 Since August, influential Yemenis from both the north and 
the south have increased their efforts to bring the two 
leaders and their respective factions together in order to 
increase political pressure on President Saleh.  If 
unresolved, this decades-old rivalry will continue to weaken 
the southerners' chances for winning hoped-for concessions 
from the ROYG.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (S) Private comments and public statements by Southern 
Movement members suggest the group's increasing polarization 
into two factions ) one allied with former People's 
Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) President Ali Nasser 
Mohammed and the second with former PDRY Vice President Ali 
Salim al-Beidh.  The two men have a long history of conflict: 
Beidh kicked Ali Nasser out of the PRDY in 1986 after a 
bloody civil war; Ali Nasser's 1990 departure from North 
Yemen was one of Beidh's conditions for uniting the two 
countries (reftel).  Both have been living in exile ) Beidh 
in Muscat and, recently, Europe and Nasser in Damascus and 
Cairo ) for much of the last 20 years.  As the Southern 
Movement has evolved, its fractious supporters have rallied 
around the two exiled leaders, each with a distinct view on 
the future of southern Yemen. 
 
¶3.  (S) To date, Ali Nasser and his backers ) among them 
prominent Yemeni businessman Salman al-Mashdali, Deputy 
Speaker of Parliament Mohammed Ali al-Shadadi, Abyan MP Salem 
Mansour al-Haydare and Shebwa MP Ali Yaslim Bawda al-Himyari 
- have publicly supported the unity of Yemen.  Ali Nasser has 
carefully portrayed himself as the more moderate alternative, 
suggesting a federalized system with greater local authority 
as the key to increasing stability.  By virtue of their 
milder rhetoric, Ali Nasser's clique enjoys greater freedom 
to travel throughout the country; many of his supporters, 
while southerners by origin, live in Sana'a and have frequent 
contact with ROYG officials.  Other leaders who are not 
members of the Southern Movement have begun to champion Ali 
Nasser's ideas.  Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) Secretary 
General Yassin Sayyid Noman ) who hard-core movement members 
criticize for being too conciliatory with the ROYG - told 
PolOff in October that Yemen's political future lay in a 
federal system.  Noman and Islah leader Hamid al-Ahmar met 
with Ali Nasser in Amman on November 12 to explore possible 
cooperation with the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), 
according to British diplomats.  Northerners Sinan and 
Mohammed Abulahoum, Bakil tribal leaders frequently critical 
of President Saleh, consider Ali Nasser to be a close friend 
and sometimes political ally. 
 
¶4.  (S) Beidh - who uses the inflammatory title President of 
the Democratic Republic of Yemen - calls openly for secession 
and has led his followers down an increasingly violent path 
of resistance.  He reportedly sees himself as the rightful 
leader of southern Yemen and has lobbied for meetings with 
American, British and German officials.  According to Beidh 
supporter and Southern Movement leader General Mohammed Saleh 
Tammah, Beidh will accept political and financial support 
from any country ) from the U.S. to Iran - if it helps his 
cause.  Beidh's confrontational attitude has incensed and 
worried the ROYG.  His supporters in Yemen ) most prominent 
among them former regime insider turned Southern Movement 
leader Tariq al-Fadhli ) have echoed his anti-Saleh rhetoric 
and moved to increasingly violent protest, enabled by the 
thousands of former mujahideen and tribesmen at Fadhli's 
disposal.  (Note: Beidh's backers are largely confined to 
Abyan governorate and unable to travel, even to the nearby 
city of Aden, for fear of arrest.  End Note.)  In December, 
the Supreme Security Council accused Beidh of supporting and 
financing al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and asked 
 
foreign nations for his extradition.  (Note: The ROYG now 
refers to the movement as "the al-Qaeda/Southern Movement." 
Beidh and other movement members have adamantly denied any 
links to AQAP.  End Note.) 
 
¶5.  (S) Beginning in August, a series of meetings have taken 
place in a range of Arab capitals with the goal of 
reconciling old grievances between Ali Nasser and Beidh and 
their respective factions.  Influential northern Yemenis 
often critical of President Saleh ) including the 
Abulahoums, Ahmar and previous insiders such as former 
Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed Basenduah ) have played 
a key role in these reconciliation efforts.  These 
disaffected northern leaders view the nascent Southern 
Movement, if shaped and directed appropriately, as a powerful 
tool with which to pressure the regime to reform ) or step 
down.  In late November, according to local media reports, 
Beidh signaled a move toward reconciliation, announcing that 
after a series of coordination meetings, he felt confident of 
"the integration of the efforts of the people of the south 
and their will to achieve the purpose of independence." 
Lebanese media reported that Ali Nasser and Beidh met on 
December 22 in Beirut ) their first face-to-face encounter 
since Ali Nasser and his supporters fled the PDRY in 1986. 
The outcome of the reunion, however, remains in question.  An 
American political consultant working for Ali Nasser told the 
Ambassador in January that Ali Nasser was considering 
returning to Sana'a in May as the sole symbol of the unified 
opposition to the Saleh regime. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6.  (S) Although support for secession is increasing across 
the south (a recent study by a local polling organization put 
it at 70 percent) the Southern Movement's leaders will be 
unable to take advantage of the trend until they are able to 
put aside the factional infighting that has crippled southern 
politics since the end of British rule in 1967.  However, if 
Ali Nasser and Ali Salim al-Beidh ) both of whom stand as 
powerful symbols of an independent southern identity - are 
able to put aside 25 years of mistrust and reconcile their 
significant differences, they could form a powerful front 
with which to challenge President Saleh to seriously address 
the legitimate grievances now troubling the southern 
governorates.  END COMMENT. 
SECHE