VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHYN #0203/01 0330621
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 020621Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3687
INFO RUEHDO/AMEMBASSY DOHA 0437
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH 1739
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

S E C R E T SANAA 000203 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND LFREEMAN AND INR JYAPHE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF MOPS YM SA
SUBJECT: HOUTHIS OFFER YEMEN (CONDITIONAL) CEASEFIRE, BUT 
MILITARY OPS GO ON 
 
REF: A. SANAA 168 
     ¶B. RIYADH 129 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  In his second major audio message in less 
than a week, rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi conditionally 
accepted the ROYG's five ceasefire conditions, provided that 
the Yemeni army ceases military operations in Sa'ada. 
Official media sources reported that the ROYG quickly 
rejected Houthi's proposal, purportedly because of its 
conditionality, a claim seemingly backed by ongoing military 
operations against the Houthi rebels.  Other indicators, 
however, including the cessation of major Saudi military 
operations against the Houthis, a parliamentary excursion to 
Sa'ada and rumors of secret negotiations suggest that a 
near-term Yemen-Houthi ceasefire remains a distinct 
possibility.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) Rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi used a January 30 
audio message posted on Houthi media outlet almenbar.net to 
renew for the fourth time his call for a ceasefire based on 
1) the Houthis' acceptance of the ROYG's five conditions and 
2) an end to government military operations.  Houthi's new 
message comes less than a week after he offered a similar 
deal to Saudi Arabia (Ref A).  Local media reported that in a 
January 30 meeting, the Supreme Security Council - chaired by 
President Saleh - discussed and decided to reject Houthi's 
offer because of its conditionality and lack of inclusion of 
the Saudi issues ) withdrawal from Saudi territory and the 
return of Saudi POWs.  (Note: The ROYG, burned multiple times 
by false Houthi promises during previous rounds of conflict, 
accuses the Houthis of using ceasefires to rearm and regroup. 
 Officials, including Deputy Prime Minister for Defense and 
Security Rashad al-Alimi, have said that they will end this 
round of fighting only with the Houthis' unconditional 
surrender.  End Note.) 
 
¶3.  (S/NF) Saudi Arabia (Ref B) and Yemen have both insisted 
that the rebels accept an unconditional ceasefire and 
unilaterally implement the required conditions on the ground 
before either government will officially halt military 
operations.  (Note: Both official Yemeni media and the 
Houthis reported ongoing military operations ) which, 
according to the ROYG, killed as many as 20 rebels ) through 
January 31.  NGA analysis also indicates that as of January 
28, the Saudis had not reduced their military presence along 
the border.  End Note.)  Al-Haq Party Secretary General 
Hassan Zayd, who regularly mediates with the ROYG on behalf 
of the Houthis, told PolOff on January 31 that it was 
difficult for the Houthis to implement the ceasefire 
conditions ) such as turning in their weapons and abandoning 
mountain positions ) while there were active military 
operations against them.  "Who can they hand over their arms 
to?  The soldiers that are shooting at them?" Zayd asked. 
 
¶4.  (C) Despite ongoing military operations, however, signs 
continue to suggest that behind-the-scenes negotiations are 
taking place (Ref A).  Ruling General People's Congress (GPC) 
MP from Sa'ada, Abdulsalam al-Zabia, on his way to Sa'ada as 
part of Parliament's fact-finding commission on the war, told 
PolOff on February 1 that "something was in the works" 
regarding mediation, although he was not able to speak freely 
on his mobile about the talks.  (Comment: The fact-finding 
committee's travel to Sa'ada is a positive indicator of 
efforts to reach an agreement on a near-term ceasefire.  The 
group, chaired by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Himyar 
al-Ahmar and including several influential MPs, would be 
unlikely to travel to Sa'ada if heavy military operations 
were expected to continue.  End Comment.) 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The humanitarian situation in Sa'ada continues to 
worsen.  The UN announced on January 30 that the number of 
IDPs displaced by the conflict had likely risen to 250,000 ) 
higher than predicted just one month ago.  UNHCR estimated 
that more than 7,000 IDPs are currently fleeing Sa'ada each 
week for neighboring Hajja governorate.  Presidential Advisor 
for Sa'ada Affairs Mohammed Azzan told PolOff on January 16 
that, because the ROYG agreed to provide and coordinate 
assistance only to IDPs at official camps, tens of thousands 
of the displaced had no access to aid.  Even in Sana'a, 
according to Azzan, more than a thousand IDP families were 
suffering without any assistance. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
 
¶6.  (C) Hope is not lost for a near-term ceasefire in Sa'ada, 
despite the ROYG's official rejection of Abdulmalik 
al-Houthi's newest ceasefire offer.  The ROYG, driving 
towards what it fervently hopes will be the final iteration 
of the Sa'ada War, has made it clear in the past that it 
needs certain guarantees from the Houthis that they are truly 
committed to peace before it will consider any proposal from 
the rebels.  Such a guarantee is unlikely to come across in 
public media statements, but rather in quiet, detailed 
discussions between government and Houthi mediators.  It 
seems likely that such talks are now taking place; their 
success will ultimately depend on the ability of both sides 
to find common ground on which to end this conflict and begin 
rebuilding trust after nearly six years of war.  END COMMENT. 
SECHE