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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000072 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, INR/EAP 
BANGKOK FOR USAID 
JAKARTA FOR JOSH CARTIN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID SOCI BM
SUBJECT: BURMA:  ASEAN PRESENCE WINDING DOWN; NO ROLE 
ENVISIONED IN ELECTIONS 
 
REF: 2009 RANGOON 223 AND PREVIOUS 
 
RANGOON 00000072  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: P/E Chief Jennifer Harhigh for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  ASEAN Special Envoy for Post-Nargis Recovery 
Willie Sabandar, together with visiting officials from the 
ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta, announced to donors and NGOs 
February 5 that the organization is winding down its presence 
in Burma and expects to shut down all ASEAN-related 
mechanisms by July 31, 2010, when the mandate of the 
Tri-Partite Core Group (TCG) expires.  The GOB has not 
requested, and ASEAN does not plan to offer, any type of 
assistance related to Burma's 2010 elections.  Rather, the 
organization would hope to return to Burma in early 2011, 
after elections, to discuss development activities. 
Meanwhile, Vietnamese Ambassador to Burma Chu Cong Phung 
stated that during the recent ASEAN Foreign Ministers' 
meeting in Danang, Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win made no 
announcement regarding the timing or conduct of the 
elections.  Nyan Win reportedly emphasized that Burma's top 
priority is ensuring political stability prior to the 
elections.  End summary. 
 
ASEAN "Winding Down," Has no Plans to Discuss Elections with 
GOB 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Sabandar briefed donors and NGOs on ASEAN's plans 
to "wind down" its presence in Burma and close the ASEAN 
Humanitarian Task Force and all Nargis-related mechanisms by 
July 31, 2010.  He suggested it is possible a skeleton staff 
of local employees may remain.  Sabandar said he will meet 
Burmese FM Nyan Win February 9 to discuss the transition of 
some TCG-related functions to the Ministry of Social Welfare 
(MSW), but offered no details.  He also plans to ask for GOB 
support to strengthen a regional partnership for Disaster 
Risk Management, including by creating a post-Nargis resource 
center under the auspices of MSW to share lessons learned and 
best practices.  He will also propose a "public-private 
partnership for sustainable livelihoods" in coordination with 
the government-supported Union of Myanmar Federation of 
Chambers of Commerce and Industries (UMFCCI). 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  When asked whether he planned to discuss with Nyan 
Win a potential role for ASEAN in Burma's planned 2010 
elections, Sabandar turned to his colleague from the ASEAN 
Secretariat, Dhannan Sunoto, who replied "we will not be able 
to discuss" that matter.  Sunoto suggested Sabandar might 
"skirt the issue" with the Foreign Minister by inquiring 
about possible timeframes for ASEAN to return to Burma after 
the elections.  He stressed that ASEAN's primary role now is 
to ensure the delivery by July of the USD 90 million in 
assistance pledged by donors during the November Post-Nargis 
and Regional Partnerships Conference in Bangkok. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Sunoto later added that ASEAN wants a "neat" 
handover to the GOB and is keen on ending in a "big bang" by 
 
RANGOON 00000072  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
using the delivery of the USD 90 million to earn the trust 
and kudos of the GOB so that ASEAN will be able to return 
after the elections.  Although ASEAN Secretary General Surin 
Pitsuwan had informally suggested assisting the GOB with 
elections, GOB officials have made clear they are confident 
they can implement elections on their own and they have not 
requested technical assistance, Sunoto stated.  He stressed 
that ASEAN intends to abide by the GOB's wishes, as it is a 
"sovereign organization comprised of sovereign nations." 
 
"Wise to Stop While the Time is Right" 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Ambassador Chu Cong Phung, present in his capacity 
as TCG member due to Vietnam's current chairmanship of ASEAN, 
offered platitudes celebrating ASEAN's and the GOB's positive 
roles in Nargis relief and recovery.  When we asked for a 
readout of the recent ASEAN FM meeting in Danang, 
particularly whether the FMs had discussed the GOB's planned 
2010 elections, Ambassador Chu replied that Nyan Win made no 
announcement regarding timing of the vote.  Nyan Win 
emphasized that the GOB's first priority is to ensure a 
stable political environment in which to organize the 
elections.  This task is complicated by the presence in Burma 
of 135 ethnic groups, numerous opposition political parties, 
and nearly 40 armed groups. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Ambassador Chu continued that the GOB reported to 
ASEAN FMs that the Nargis recovery phase is "nearly complete" 
and that Burma's GDP had grown by 4 percent in 2009.  Chu 
Cong Phung said the GOB has made clear it no longer needs 
ASEAN support so it is unnecessary to discuss further 
support.  Ambassador Chu quoted a Buddhist saying:  "It is 
wise to stop while the time is right." 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Several donors and NGOs expressed the view that a 
continued ASEAN presence could be useful in ensuring 
continuity in delivering assistance to the Irrawaddy Delta 
and beyond.  Before the TCG's powers were curtailed by the 
GOB in March 2008 (reftel), the mechanism had served a useful 
purpose in facilitating donor access.  The EU representative 
observed it is naive to believe ASEAN can end its presence in 
July and then reenter the Burma environment smoothly 
following elections. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  Sabandar and his colleagues from the ASEAN 
Secretariat could not have been clearer:  ASEAN is preparing 
to leave Burma by July and has no intention to seek a role 
during the upcoming election period.  We noticed a sharp 
contrast in tone from last summer, when Sabandar arrived full 
of ideas and hopes to engage the GOB on a political, not just 
humanitarian, level.  We note that the Vietnamese 
Ambassador's attitude indicates a sobering departure from the 
practical and helpful role that past ASEAN chair Thailand 
played as a member of the TCG. 
 
¶9.  (C)  The end of the TCG and the impending departure of 
 
RANGOON 00000072  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
ASEAN may not have a direct effect on the future delivery of 
U.S. assistance, since U.S. aid is not implemented through 
the Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan (PONREPP), and 
the ability of the TCG to secure visas and access disappeared 
last March.  Nonetheless, ASEAN's departure is likely to have 
an impact on the logistics of assistance delivery, as well as 
on monitoring and evaluation by other donors; and the absence 
of a vigorous TCG-like mechanism to facilitate visas and 
access is a continuing worry. 
 
¶10.  (C)  We have requested a private meeting with Sabandar 
after his session with Nyan Win to see if there is more to 
ASEAN's current position than he was willing to divulge to a 
mixed group of diplomats and INGO reps. 
DINGER