VZCZCXRO5918
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHPS #0055/01 0340619
ZNR UUUUU ZZH ZDK
P 030619Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY PRISTINA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9671
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1341
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1879
RHFMIUU/AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGEA/CDR650THMIGP SHAPE BE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUZEJAA/USNIC PRISTINA SR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000055 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, INL, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM EAID SR KV
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: LDK WOBBLY AS PDK WINS TWO MORE MUNICIPALITIES 
 
REF:  A. 09 PRISTINA 548 
      ¶B. 09 PRISTINA 543 
      ¶C. 09 PRISTINA 518 
      ¶D. 09 PRISTINA 510 
 
PRISTINA 00000055  001.4 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The ruling Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) scored 
two impressive victories over its coalition partner Democratic 
League of Kosovo (LDK) in the January 31 mayoral run-off elections 
in Prizren and Lipjan/Lipljan.  The elections reaffirm PDK's 
 confidence and unity under the leadership of Prime Minister Thaci, 
who suffered some political setbacks after PDK's poorer than 
expected showing following the first round of municipal elections on 
November 15.  LDK, on the other hand, is suffering a pronounced 
reversal of fortune after promising first-round election results 
that produced few second round run-off victories.  The recent 
high-decibel campaign rhetoric has left the PDK/LDK governing 
coalition bruised, but intact.  The most recent election results 
should dampen enthusiasm for early national elections among some 
within LDK who may have been flirting with the idea (egged-on in 
part by a January offer from Ramush Haradinaj's Alliance for the 
Future of Kosovo to join his party in challenging PDK).  Instead we 
expect we expect President Sejdiu and Prime Minister to turn their 
immediate attention to a long-rumored cabinet reshuffle. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
TWO SOLID VICTORIES FOR PDK 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On January 31, voters in Prizren and Lipjan/Lipljan 
municipalities went to the polls for the third time in as many 
months to select new mayors.  These polls, a repeat of the December 
13 second-round runoffs, were ordered by the Central Election 
Commission (CEC) after the Election Complaints and Appeals 
Commission (ECAC) found significant evidence of electoral fraud in 
the December 13 contests.  Both elections featured candidates from 
the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and the Democratic League of 
Kosovo (LDK), which form the national governing coalition.  The CEC 
reported on February 1 that Prizren's incumbent PDK Mayor Ramadan 
Muja defeated his LDK challenger Hanefi Muharremi by 52.9 percent to 
47.1 percent.  In Lipjan/Lipljan, PDK incumbent Mayor Shukri Buja 
defeated the LDK challenger Imri Ahmeti by 53.7 percent to 46.3 
percent.  LDK campaign manager and senior party leader Lutfi Haziri 
said publicly on February 1 that his party would accept the election 
results, and it appears unlikely that there will be any challenges 
to the results.  We dispatched 17 observation teams, including the 
Ambassador, to cover the elections in both municipalities.  Neither 
we nor other diplomatic observer missions recorded evidence of 
widespread, intentional irregularities or obvious fraud. 
 
REVERSALS OF FORTUNE FOR COALITION PARTNERS 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Prizren and Lipjan/Lipljan cap three months of frenzied 
political maneuvering by PDK and LDK over municipal elections that 
has strained relations between the two.  The first round of 
municipal elections sparked talk of an LDK revival -- the party has 
been reeling since a dramatic electoral defeat in 2007 -- after it 
picked up some new mayoralties.  Conversely, PDK, Kosovo's largest 
party, appeared vulnerable after the first round elections left it 
with fewer-than-expected decisive victories and facing almost a 
dozen competitive second round mayoral run-offs.  PDK's fortunes 
improved on December 13 when it won most of its second round run-off 
mayoral elections.  Victories in Prizren and Lipjan/Lipljan on 
January 31 have now reinforced PDK's image as Kosovo's dominant 
political party.  LDK leaders, who just last week publicly 
questioned whether the coalition with PDK would remain viable after 
anticipated electoral wins in Prizren and Lipjan/Lipljan, now must 
reassess LDK's competitiveness.  Speculation that President Sejdiu 
(LDK) would call for early national elections has dampened 
considerably, and this possibility appears less likely.  Most now 
expect the coalition to continue limping along for the time being. 
 
 
IMPENDING CABINET SHUFFLE 
------------------------- 
 
PRISTINA 00000055  002.4 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Thaci and Sejdiu must now reestablish a frayed 
power-sharing arrangement.  Both have been pointing to the 
likelihood of a government reshuffle as the principal vehicle for 
strengthening the coalition's harmony.  Each leader has suggested to 
us that the reshuffle would follow after the Lipjan/Prizren 
elections, and Pristina has been abuzz for weeks with conflicting 
rumors over which ministers might lose their jobs.  The most 
credible recent reports contend that the ministers of Justice, 
Health, and Youth and Culture -- all LDK ministries -- will be 
replaced.  Information from the always tight-lipped PDK on their 
candidates for reshuffling is more sparse, but Deputy Prime Minister 
Kuci and Minister for Transport Fatmir Limaj may be moving on to 
other jobs, according to Pristina's rumor mill.  Regardless, LDK is 
in a weak bargaining position and will find it difficult to argue 
that it deserves the helm of the long-promised, new Ministry for 
European Integration.  We expect, however, that LDK, in its 
discussions with PDK, will try to leverage its growing parliamentary 
caucus -- on January 29, a new parliamentary group of seven ethnic 
minority MPs called the Coalition for Integration joined LDKs 
Assembly caucus, enlarging it from 26 to 33 MPs. (Note: PDK retains 
the largest caucus in the Kosovo Assembly with 37 MPs; LDK is the 
second-largest caucus. End Note) 
 
FLOWERS FOR FATMIR, LOVE RAMUSH 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Ramush Haradinaj's Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) 
throughout this month has been trying to sell President Sejdiu on a 
plan for AAK-LDK partnership aimed at, collapsing the current 
government, forming a new AAK-LDK governing coalition, and forcing 
early national elections.  AAK's coalition proposal to LDK followed 
simple arithmetic; neither LDK nor AAK have enough parliamentary 
seats on their own to form a government without a partner, but they 
could together.  AAK also argued that a coalition with it was the 
only way for LDK to reverse its political fortunes, since so many of 
its traditional supporters were unhappy with LDK's alliance with 
PDK.  AAK officials made the offer on January 6.  At the time, LDK 
party leaders told us that the coalition offer from AAK was dead on 
arrival, a stance they maintained publicly when news of the proposal 
subsequently leaked to the media.  Tensions between Sejdiu and 
Haradinaj were reportedly part of the problem.  The odds are against 
a future AAK/LDK coalition unless LDK can overcome its fears and 
resentments toward AAK or until it finds continued cohabitation with 
PDK unbearable. 
 
FOLLOWING DEATH OF ISTOG MAYOR, ANOTHER ELECTION 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (SBU) LDK suffered more municipal misfortune on January 30, when 
Fadil Ferati, its longtime mayor of Istog/Istok municipality passed 
away following a battle with cancer.  According to Kosovo law, Istog 
will contest a new election in the coming weeks to replace the 
mayor.  LDK will face a significant challenge with this election, as 
Istog/Istok is in western Kosovo and borders the AAK municipal 
stronghold of Peje/Pec.  AAK ran a strong candidate in Istog/Istok 
during the first round of municipal elections in November.  The 
party subsequently made a shrewd tactical move when it announced it 
would not compete against the popular, but terminally ill, Ferati in 
the second round run-off election in December.  Istog/Istok was 
LDK's last remaining office in western Kosovo, and Ferati's death 
leaves the party with poor prospects to hold the mayor's office 
there in the face of a strengthening AAK.  The loss of Istog/Istok 
would reduce LDK -- which until 2007 controlled 20 of Kosovo's then 
26 municipalities with ethnic Albanian majorities -- to running 
Pristina and a handful of municipalities in northeast Kosovo. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) LDK enjoyed some success with the first round of elections 
on November 15.  The President's party kept control of Pristina -- 
the big prize -- and picked up some municipalities that it had lost 
in 2007.  The euphoria, however, did not last for long. The party 
contested 12 mayoral run-offs in December and won only 5 of them. 
The outcome of the Gjilan/Gnjilane election is still uncertain.  The 
losses in Prizren and Lipjan/Lipljan complete the picture of a party 
 
PRISTINA 00000055  003.4 OF 003 
 
 
that mistook survival for victory in the 2009 municipal elections, 
and there is a very real possibility that LDK will have to endure 
another loss once there is an election in Istog/Istok.  This series 
of electoral disappointments could set the ground for a contentious 
LDK party convention in the Spring -- the first since 2006, when 
disaffected Nexhat Daci supporters splintered from LDK to form the 
Democractic League of Dardania.  We would not be surprised to see 
Sejdiu postpone or cancel the planned convention.  PDK, of course, 
is enjoying its victories in Prizren and Lipjan/Lipljan and shows 
little interest in upending a government that continues to pay it 
ample dividends in power and patronage.  Barring some external shock 
that motivates a change of heart for the President or Prime 
Minister, the PDK/LDK coalition seems poised to wobble on for the 
foreseeable future. 
 
DELL