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INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS OUAGADOUGOU 000093 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM UV
SUBJECT: 2010 Presidential elections on the horizon 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Compaore has been in power since 1987. 
As a result of a change to the constitution in 2000, he is eligible 
to run for President one final time in 2010. The likely outcome of 
the elections is predictable: a clear Compaore victory in the first 
round.  Because the numerous opposition parties do not have access 
to the same resources (financial, logistic) as the party in power 
the elections are naturally skewed in favor of the incumbent.  In 
preparation for 2010, the electoral commission has published a 
tentative election-year calendar, starting with the revision of the 
registry in January 2010 and ending with voting in November 2010. 
END SUMMARY. 
¶2.  (SBU) President Compaore has been in power in Burkina Faso for 
more than twenty two years.  In 2005, Compaore was reelected to a 
third term in office with 80 percent of the vote.  Because of 
constitutional changes (Article 37 of the Constitution was amended 
in April 2000) this term is in fact considered his "first" under the 
new constitution (Note: Each new constitutional change affecting the 
Office of the President takes  effect at the time of the National 
Assembly vote and is not retroactive. End Note.).  The Burkinabe 
constitution currently allows for two five-year terms of office. 
Most political observers believe that Compaore will easily win the 
2010 elections.  While elections in Burkina Faso have been described 
as mostly free and somewhat fair, access by opposition parties to 
electoral resources are limited and do not create a level playing 
field. 
¶3. (U)  A new electoral law (Article 48 - Item 4 of May 7, 2009) 
now allows for non-resident Burkinabe nationals to participate in 
presidential elections and national referendums. However, due to the 
absence of requisite legal arrangements and the high cost of 
expatriate voting, the National Assembly adopted a new law (on 
January 25th, 2010) that postponed this voting right until the 2015 
presidential elections.  This law does not extend expatriate voting 
rights to legislative or municipal elections. 
¶4. (U) The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI), which 
is tasked with planning and running elections and referendums in 
Burkina Faso, has set the following election calendar. 
- January 1-31, 2010: 
Revision of the voter registry  -- update and correct the existing 
registry and draft a final registry that will gain cross-party 
consensus. (Note: Revisions are running a month behind schedule but 
should not impact the election date.) 
- March 1-31, 2010: 
The Constitutional Court officially announces the date of the 
presidential election. 
- September 26 or October 3, 2010: 
The Constitutional Court publishes the final candidate list. 
- October 17 or 24, 2010 (at midnight): 
Electoral campaigning begins(first round of the presidential 
elections.) 
- November 6 or 13, 2010 (at midnight): 
Electoral campaigning ends. 
- November 7 or 14, 2010: 
Voting begins (from 6:00 AM to 6:30 PM). 
¶5.  (U) Electoral rules stipulate that if no single candidate wins 
the majority of the votes (51 percent) in the first round, then a 
second round will oppose the two candidates receiving the most votes 
in the first round.  By regulation, the second round has to take 
place within 15 days of the official announcement, by the 
Constitutional Court, of the first round results. 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT:  We expect voter participation to increase in the 
2010 presidential elections as opposition parties work hard to 
garner votes, thereby increasing their credibility, and ensure a big 
turnout. In 2005, 57.5 percent of the 3.9 million registered voters 
participated in the elections.  Compaore will most likely easily win 
the election in the first round.  The more than 300 opposition 
parties are still not sufficiently organized, nor are they 
sufficiently financially endowed to really compete against Compaore. 
According to the revised Constitution, the 2010 elections should, in 
principle, be Compaore's last election.  It is uncertain whether 
Compaore will adhere to the current constitution and step down in 
2015 or whether he will attempt to revise Article 37 in order to run 
again.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
LAEUCHLI