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id: 249504
date: 2/18/2010 22:11
refid: 10OTTAWA67
origin: Embassy Ottawa
classification: CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
destination: 10STATE14366
header:
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
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C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 000067
NOFORN
SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO AMCONSUL QUEBEC
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO APP WINNIPEG
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/18
TAGS: PREL EAID MOPS MARR AF CA HA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN PLANS IN AFGHANISTAN POST-2011
REF: STATE 14366
CLASSIFIED BY: Scott Bellard, Minister Counselor, Ottawa, POL;
REASON: 1.4(B), (D)
¶1. (C/NF) Summary. Canada will not only end its military mission
in Afghanistan in 2011 but will likely significantly scale back its
assistance after 2011 and offer only relatively modest
contributions to Afghan Trust Funds. A top priority is likely to
be the Afghan-Pakistan border programs. With growing concerns over
budget deficits (which are unusual in recent Canadian history) ,
Canadian leaders will be loathe to make any new generous
commitments for Afghanistan in what is already an unpopular cause
within Canada. This is in contrast to the outpouring of goodwill
(and donations) for Haiti that ordinary Canadians have shown in the
recent weeks. End Summary.
¶2. (C/NF) In a meeting with PolMinCouns on February 18, Foreign
Minister Lawrence Cannon's senior policy advisor (Americas,
Afghanistan, Arctic) Regan Watts (please protect) laid out Canada's
current thinking on Canada's role in Afghanistan post-2011, when
its military mission will have ended. He said that the Cabinet had
recently examined three options - small, medium, and large - and
had opted for the small role. Contributions to various trust funds
- for the Afghan National Army, the Afghan National Police, and/or
the Reconciliation Fund - would likely at the maximum would total
no more than $100 million over a multi-year period. There will be
no specific new funding requests for Afghanistan in the 2010 budget
that the government will present to Parliament on March 4, although
Canada's five-year commitment for C$1.9 billion through the end of
2011 remains intact. The Cabinet may nonetheless decide on some
initial disbursements for the trust funds in April out of existing
funds, in part in response to Secretary Clinton's recent requests
to Minister Cannon. New developmental and humanitarian commitments
for 2012 and beyond will probably not emerge until the 2011 budget
process in spring of that year.
¶3. (C/NF) Watts added that he expects the top funding priority to
be the Afghanistan/Pakistan Border Prosperity Initiative, building
on Canada's successful role in the Dubai Process. He noted that
Canada believes its own experience with managing border relations
with the U.S. made this priority especially attractive and
relevant.
¶4. (C/NF) Watts promised to explore the option of providing
trainers for the Afghan National Security Forces (reftel), but
wondered about whether it might be possible to offer such training
after 2011 in a third country, i.e. Russia. Pol/miloff will follow
up with working level officials at the Department of Foreign
Affairs and International Trade and Department of National Defence.
Watts said that Prime Minister Stephen Harper remained adamant
about having no Canadian troops in Afghanistan after December 2011
beyond those required for Embassy security.
¶5. (C/NF) Watts also noted that Canadian officials increasingly
viewed Haiti as overtaking Afghanistan as its main foreign policy
priority (after relations with the U.S.) and its major assistance
recipient, especially in light of post-earthquake rehabilitation.
Haiti is currently the second largest recipient of Canadian aid.
¶6. (C/NF) Comment: While this policy course is not yet set in
stone or irreversible, the trend lines have been clear for some
time, and there is no evident political will by either the
Conservatives or the Liberals to revisit the issue. Popular
support for additional humanitarian aid for Haiti now makes it even
less likely that the government will go out on a political limb to
provide significant new resources for Afghanistan.
JACOBSON
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