VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNY #0073 0501619
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 191619Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0043
INFO GENEVA CD COLLECTIVE
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0001

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000073 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/19 
TAGS: PARM MNUC KNNP PREL NO
SUBJECT: NORWEGIANS DEEPLY PESSIMISTIC ON FMCT PROSPECTS IN CD 
 
REF: 10 STATE 13698 
 
DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 (B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Norwegian Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs, 
Knut Langeland, sees little hope for the Fissile Material Cutoff 
Treaty (FMCT) in the Conference on Disarmament (CD), and painted a 
picture of the Program of Work (POW) and subsequent negotiations as 
totally stymied by cynical diplomatic strategies from Pakistan, 
India, North Korea, Iran and China, with Pakistan merely doing the 
heavy lifting of blocking progress at the moment.  Langeland 
believes there need to be "several more years of frustration" 
before the FMCT is pulled out of the CD framework, by which time 
all those interested in seeing a real FMCT will have realized that 
geopolitics prevent negotiation of an FMCT by non Nuclear 
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) members.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
¶2. (C) Poloff had frank and substantive discussions with Ambassador 
for Disarmament Affairs Knut Langeland of the Norwegian Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs (MFA) on Friday, February 19, using reftel points. 
Langeland expressed Norway's frustration with the way the CD 
functions, and said that it has not been a serious forum for 
negotiations since 1998.  He said that the preamble of the NPT puts 
the issues covered by the FMCT (and the Comprehensive Test Ban 
Treaty (CTBT)) under the NPT umbrella, and it is his opinion that 
ultimately, that is the forum to which the FMCT must move. 
Langeland stated that this was his assessment, given in confidence 
to the U.S. government, and is not Norwegian policy as such. 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) Langeland said that Pakistan's intransigence is dictated 
from China, and that Pakistan would never take a stance on the FMCT 
that China would not approve.  But China is not the only problem, 
according to Langeland.  India, North Korea and Iran would each 
block full negotiations on the FMCT if Pakistan were not doing the 
work for them.  That said, Langeland evaluated that compromise on 
the FMCT "simply will not fly in Pakistan at this time, because the 
regime cannot afford to look weak." 
 
 
 
¶4. (C) Langeland speculated that last year, the Obama "aura" made 
it too difficult for Pakistan to block the POW, so instead they 
blocked the actual start of negotiations.  This year, the 
Pakistanis have gone back to their previous position.  Both 
Pakistan and China believe they do not yet have enough fissile 
material-Pakistan because it is not done building up its stocks, 
China because it is unsure how many warheads it needs before being 
able to assure a second strike capability on the United States if 
the U.S. goes ahead with some sort of missile defense against North 
Korea, which Langeland says China feels threatened by. 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) Langeland agreed that side events at the CD were best used 
not as "academic" sessions, but as solid negotiating preparations. 
They are best used as a means to sorting out different models for 
the FMCT and different proposed FMCT agreement texts, he said. 
WHITE