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RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHNM #0109/01 0420917
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R 110917Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5618
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
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E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI NG
SUBJECT:  Niger: ECOWAS Mediator Provides Update 
 
Ref: a) Niamey 0096, b) Niamey 0048, c) Niamey 0029, d) Niamey 0025, 
d) 09 Niamey 001005 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On February 9, ECOWAS Mediator for Niger General 
(retired) and former head of state Abdulsalami Abubakar received 
Charge to discuss the status of mediation talks between Niger's main 
opposition group, the Coordination of Forces for Democracy and the 
Republic (CFDR) and the Government of Niger (GON).  General Abubakar 
was frank, stating that "one man" stood between the current state of 
affairs and progress on restoring democracy.  He added that 
President Tandja insists that the August 4 referendum, the 6th 
Republic Constitution, the new Cabinet, and the new National 
Assembly be respected and not rolled back.  General Abubakar noted 
that the Opposition had offered several ideas about the disposition 
of the three-year interim period, which it saw as an opportunity for 
a political transition, but admitted that the GON's point of view 
appeared fixed in a "6th Republic focus."  General Abubakar will 
soon prepare a report to be submitted to the ECOWAS Heads of State 
and Government Summit on February 16.  End summary. 
 
INDP Resumes, Plenary Sessions Held 
----------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU)On February 3, ECOWAS Mediator for Niger General (retired) 
and former head of state Abdulsalami Abubakar returned to Niamey 
from the AU Summit and meetings on Sudan to reconvene the 
Inter-Nigerien Political Dialogue (INDP).  After separate meetings 
with both the GON and the Opposition during the period from February 
4 - 8, he presided on February 8 in the afternoon and then on 
February 9 twice over plenary sessions at the Palais des Congres. 
Between the two plenary sessions on February 9, General Abubakar 
received the Charge, Pol Officer, and Pol Specialist at the adjacent 
Hotel Gaweye. 
 
Mediator Aboubakar Outlines Opposition Objectives 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶3. (SBU) General Abubakar stated that the Opposition rejects the 
constitution of the 6th Republic and deriving institutions.  He said 
the Opposition proposes a nine-month transition under an inclusive 
"national reconciliation government," with President Tandja serving 
as a largely ceremonial president, a consensus prime minister and 
cabinet, a transitional parliament, and a counsel to draft a new 
constitution.  Abubakar noted, however, that the GON's notion of a 
transition would be to include the Opposition in the GON during the 
three-year extension period from 2009-2012, during which President 
Tandja remains in power under the 6th Republic Constitution. 
 
Mediator Abubakar on African Union Non-Role 
------------------------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) General Abubakar expressed concern that Niger was not on 
the agenda of the January 31 - February 2 African Union (AU) Summit. 
 He stated that the AU had not taken up Niger's political crisis in 
late 2009 as it benefited from the protection of then-Chair Libyan 
President Muammar Qadhafi.  He added that when Qadhafi came to visit 
Niger in March 2009, he did nothing to dissuade President Tandja 
from staying in office beyond the term permitted by the 1999 
Constitution; on the contrary, he encouraged President Tandja to 
finish his "special projects," deriding the constitution as "nothing 
but a piece of paper." 
 
The Elusive Notion of African Statesmanship 
------------------------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) In reaction to the demands of some that President Tandja be 
allowed to remain in office to conclude his "special projects" (the 
Kandadji Dam, the abattoir, the Zinder refinery, Niamey's second 
bridge over the Niger River, the Imouraren uranium mines, and the 
dry port at Dosso), General Abubakar stated that he sees no reason 
why any future president would not continue these projects.  To him, 
President Tandja did not risk anything by graciously stepping down 
from power at the end of his second term, which was the 
understanding of the political class.  He also recalled that 
Opposition leaders said that if President Tandja had left office 
when his second term ended on December 22, he would have been hailed 
as a "Father of the Nation" and "Shepherd of Nigerien Democracy" 
during the December 18 Republic Day celebrations in Diffa, capital 
of President Tandja's home region.  Instead, he had not chosen the 
path toward statesmanship. 
 
Mediator Abubakar:  Pres. Tandja Holds Cards 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) General Abubakar admitted that prospects for an agreement 
are doubtful at best and that President Tandja "holds the cards" in 
this crisis.  He said, "one man" stood between the current state of 
 
NIAMEY 00000109  002 OF 002 
 
 
affairs and progress.  Abubakar doubted that the GON would provide 
an opportunity for the mediation process to assist Niger.  President 
Tandja, he said, "...is the main problem, and could be the 
solution."  He added that members of President Tandja's camp have no 
voice and are just mouthpieces for him.  He observed, "They (the GON 
delegation) cannot make a decision without referring to Tandja for 
instructions...I don't think he has delegated (decision making) 
powers to them.  Several parties have contracted a marriage of 
convenience (with President Tandja), and they are trying to save 
their skin."  He went on to say that he hoped that the U.S. 
Government and the European Union would put more pressure on 
President Tandja to reach a political agreement.  Abubakar stated 
that as the food security situation becomes increasingly worrisome 
in coming months, things could take a turn for the worse.  "A hungry 
man is an angry man," he observed. 
ECOWAS Summit:  Mediator to Report on Progress 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶7. (SBU) General Abubakar advised that he would return to Abuja on 
February 10 and would prepare a report to be submitted to the ECOWAS 
Heads of State and Government Summit on February 16.  He is 
uncertain as to the date of an anticipated next round of the INDP, 
but stated that he would be available for further discussion on the 
process. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8. (SBU) Regrettably, the discussion with Mediator Aboubakar 
provided no suggestion that a means had been found to surpass the 
ongoing political stalemate.  The GON's position appears to be 
observing the status quo, while the Opposition wishes to use the 
three-year extension of President Tandja's term of office as a 
transitional period during which key GON institutions would be 
rolled back and reformed.  As democracy would be restored, the 
Opposition would work to draft a new, consultative constitution. 
The Opposition's main objective appears to be to skip from the 6th 
Republic to a 7th Republic as quickly as possible, with governmental 
institutions restored that are inclusive.  On the eve of his 
departure, Mediator Aboubakar provided both sides with his proposal 
for a political transition, which will be discussed in septel.  End 
comment. 
 
Whitaker