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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000328 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2020 
TAGS: PREL PTER IN PK
SUBJECT: LOW INDIAN EXPECTATIONS FOR FEBRUARY 25 TALKS WITH 
PAKISTAN 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Uzra Zeya for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: According to Yashwant Sinha, the Indian MEA 
point person on Pakistan policy, there is no set agenda for 
February 25 Foreign Secretary-level talks with Pakistan in 
New Delhi and resumption of the Composite Dialogue after the 
talks is unlikely.  Sinha confided that he is "not sanguine" 
that the talks will be productive, adding that a "minimum 
outcome of agreeing to talk again" might be a realistic 
result.  While India will focus on what Sinha characterized 
as Pakistan's "dismal record" on Mumbai-related prosecutions 
and Islamabad's apparent tolerance of rabble-rousing rhetoric 
from jihadi groups, Sinha predicted the Pakistani side would 
raise Kashmir, water, and alleged Indian "interference" in 
Baluchistan.  He dismissed Islamabad's claim of Indian misuse 
of Pakistani water as a canard, noting that the Indian Indus 
Waters Commissioner was in Pakistan last week to discuss 
Indus Waters Treaty technical issues with his Pakistani 
counterpart.  Crediting Prime Minister Singh as the driving 
force behind the resumed talks, Sinha said the PM's primary 
motivation is to address the "distraction" posed by Pakistan 
so India can get on with an ambitious target of 8-10 percent 
annual economic growth in coming years.  End Summary. 
 
Agenda Open, But No Composite Dialogue 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) In a wide-ranging February 22 meeting with PolCouns, 
MEA Joint Secretary Sinha -- India's A/S equivalent for 
Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran (discussions on the latter two 
countries reported septel) -- said India and Pakistan have no 
formal agenda for their February 25 Foreign Secretary-level 
talks in New Delhi.  He stated, however, that India insisted 
and Pakistan reluctantly accepted that the talks will not 
entail resumed Composite Dialogue discussions.  India will 
focus on what Sinha characterized as Pakistan's "dismal 
record" on Mumbai-related prosecutions and cross-border 
infiltrations, and will also demand a "crackdown" on 
rabble-rousing rhetoric from groups like Jamaat ul-Dawa and 
the United Jihadi Council (Sinha provided a paper containing 
demagogic vitriol reportedly uttered by JuD leader Abdur 
Rehman Makki and others).  He predicted the Pakistani side 
would raise Kashmir, water, and alleged Indian "interference" 
in Baluchistan.  Sinha reaffirmed readiness to discuss all 
issues raised by Pakistan, despite the singular GOI focus on 
terrorism. 
 
¶3. (C) When asked about Indian expectations, Sinha confided 
that he is "not sanguine" that the talks will be productive, 
"especially after reading the Pakistani press."  He stated 
that he saw some likelihood that the meeting would be a 
"one-off" event, particularly if the GOI's ongoing 
investigation into the February 13 Pune bombing reveals 
Pakistani involvement.  Sinha said no evidence of such 
involvement has surfaced "as of yet," but commented that 
three of the Indian Mujahideen's top leaders implicated by 
the Indian media for involvement in the Pune bombing are in 
Karachi.  Sinha expressed dismay that the Pakistani 
delegation will meet the Kashmir separatist All Party 
Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leadership in Delhi on February 
24, characterizing it as an unwise move that will not 
engender positive Indian public opinion and could jeopardize 
GOI receptivity to future talks. 
 
¶4. (C) Sinha cited the APHC meeting as a clear sign that the 
Pakistani military controls the civilian government: "when 
Foreign Secretary Bashir comes to India, he will be holding 
the military's brief and not that of the civilian 
government."  He surmised that a "minimum outcome of agreeing 
to talk again" might be a realistic result of the talks, 
adding that the Indians are willing to go to Pakistan for 
future discussions.  Recounting that the Pakistani side asked 
if the February 25 talks would lead to resumption of the 
Composite Dialogue, Sinha said that such an eventuality is 
highly unlikely absent Pakistani CT progress. 
 
¶5. (C) Sinha downplayed Islamabad's claim of Indian 
misallocation of Pakistani water, asserting that Pakistan is 
 
NEW DELHI 00000328  002 OF 002 
 
 
"taking technical issues and trying to turn them into 
political issues."  As an example, he cited Pakistani press 
allegations that Indian diversion of Ravi River water is 
"making Lahore run dry."  In fact, Sinha claimed, India paid 
Pakistan 60 million British Pounds in compensation for 
exclusive use of Ravi waters when the Indus Waters Treaty was 
concluded in 1960.  Sinha noted that the Indian Indus Waters 
Commissioner was in Pakistan last week to discuss Indus 
Waters Treaty technical issues with his Pakistani counterpart 
and reported that the Pakistani side did not claim any 
technical violations by India of the Indus Waters Treaty but 
asked for technical data on India's future water projects. 
 
¶6. (C) Dismissing as "nonsense" Indian media analysis that 
ascribes the GOI's offer of resumed talks with Pakistan to 
USG pressure or "Indian policy failure in Afghanistan," Sinha 
credited PM Singh as the driving force behind the Indian 
initiative.  Sinha said the PM's primary motivation is to 
address the "distraction" posed by Pakistan so India can get 
on with an ambitious target of 8-10 percent annual economic 
growth in coming years.  Believing that the domestic 
political climate was now right, Singh authorized MEA to 
initiate resumed talks.  Sinha stressed that the PM had been 
planning for some time for the right moment to re-engage with 
Pakistan and was determined not to let the Pune bombing halt 
the talks.  That said, Sinha asserted that another terrorist 
incident would likely force the GOI to cancel re-engagement 
in the face of overwhelmingly negative public opinion. 
ROEMER