VZCZCXYZ0009
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBH #0047/01 0352018
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 042018Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY NASSAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0296
INFO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L NASSAU 000047 
 
SIPDIS 
WHA/CAR FOR BAHAMAS DESK OFFICER JOSLYN MACK-WILSON 
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/04 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BF
SUBJECT: BY-ELECTIONS IN THE BAHAMAS -- FREE T-SHIRTS KEY TO SUCCESS 
 
REF: NASSAU 24 
 
DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY.  The resignation earlier this month of a 
opposition MP will result in a by-election on February 16. 
Traditionally, a Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) stronghold, the 
by-election may be a bellwether for the 2012 general elections. 
Funding is going to be a key issue in the race as many political 
commentators have noted that the winner is usually the one who can 
pump the most money into the area and provide the most free 
t-shirts and give-aways.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
------------------------------------------ 
 
Background on the Constituency 
 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶2. (U)  There are approximately 4,200 voters in the Constituency of 
Elizabeth.  The seat was won by PLP Malcolm Addereley in 2007 by 
less than 50 votes.  The constituency is one that has noticeably 
suffered during the recent economic downturn, losing 98 jobs when 
Pepsi-Cola closed its office there in 2008.  Adderley gave a 22 
minute, 12 page resignation speech in the House of Assembly in 
which he excoriated the leadership of the PLP for undermining and 
disrespecting him, calling his time in office "the worst personal 
experience my family and I have ever faced."  Christie accused the 
Free National Movement (FNM) government of undermining democracy by 
offering Adderley a Supreme Court position which he believes 
necessitated Adderley's resignation.  PLP Chairman Bradley Roberts 
accused Adderley of being a "political prostitute" and remarked 
that both Adderley and Kenyatta Gibson (the first MP to resign from 
the PLP) were trying to destabilize the party.  PLP member Raynard 
Rigby accused Christie of "being asleep at the wheel" while many 
other party members also questioned why Christie had not called on 
Adderley to resign during the months of rumors that led up to his 
resignation. The resignation of two sitting MPs in just over a year 
could be a sign of discontent and disunity within the party. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U)  While media reports are generally predicting a PLP victory, 
many articles indicate that Elizabeth residents are open to a third 
party candidate and are "sick of both parties."  Some of the third 
party candidates have called for campaign finance reform in the run 
up to the election, an acknowledgment of the view that whoever 
spends the most will win. 
 
 
 
-------------------- 
 
The Candidates 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (U)  The candidates vying for the seat include Ryan Pinder for 
the PLP, Dr. Duane Sands for the FNM, Cassius Stuart for the 
Bahamas Democratic Movement (BDM), Dr. Andre Rollins for the 
National Development Party (NDP), Rodney Moncur for the Worker's 
Party and Godfrey Pinder for the United Christian Love Revolution 
Movement (UCLRM).  Contacts in many of the political parties have 
told PolOff that the FNM are using the election to test their 
strength so they can decide when to call another general election. 
Media outlets also suggest that the PM may be using the election to 
test the waters to see how the FNM would perform in 2012. 
 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
PLP Candidate - Ryan Pinder 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (C)  Ryan Pinder is a 35 year old tax attorney and appears often 
in the press to comment on a wide variety of economic issues to 
include tax information exchange agreements and intellectual 
property rights.  He currently serves as vice chairman of the 
 
party.  He has strong ties to the U.S. and received an MBA and Law 
degree from the University of Miami.  Pinder was a dual 
Bahamian-U.S. citizen but renounced his U.S. citizenship on January 
19 after bowing to pressure from his own party.  He has advised the 
Embassy that he will be requesting future B1/B2 visas to conduct 
business at his law firm in Florida.  One newspaper, The Punch, has 
already played on his ties to the U.S., running a headline alleging 
that "Ryan May Go Back 'Home' to America if times get too tough in 
The Bahamas.  He is a Member of the National General Council of the 
PLP and is co-chair of the Committee on Foreign Relations and 
Foreign Trade.  Pinder reportedly beat out five other PLP 
contenders who coveted the seat.  His father was the first white 
PLP cabinet minister and an MP for Malcolm Creek (now Elizabeth) 
and St. John's constituencies.  His father was also a cabinet 
minister in the Linden Pindling administration as Minister of Local 
Government and Family Island Affairs. 
 
 
 
¶6. (C)  One of Pinder's primary campaign focuses is health 
insurance.  He said he is committed to national healthcare for all 
regardless of one's ability to pay.  At a PLP rally in Elizabeth on 
January 19, one speaker acknowledged that although Bahamians lived 
in paradise, they faced the "ever present risk of dying in paradise 
due to a lack of health insurance."  Pinder is a relative unknown 
in Bahamian politics and has been criticized by the public for his 
lack of experience, with one recent editorial noting "Pinder is a 
relative newcomer who should wait his turn."  Pinder is noticeably 
one of the few white members of his party and the role that his 
race will play in garnering grassroots PLP support for him as a 
candidate remains to be seen. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
PLP Rally Accuses PM of Political Tricks and 
 
Undermining Election 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 
 
¶7. (U)  Hundreds of people attended the PLP rally on January 19 to 
show their support for Pinder.  Despite the fact that Pinder is a 
white member of an overwhelmingly black party, one post contact 
told PolOff that the constituency is so heavily rooted in the PLP 
that "they could nominate a puppy and it would be elected."  The 
focus of many of the rally speakers was Prime Minister Ingraham's 
recent decision to grant temporary protective status (TPS) to 
illegal Haitian detainees.  Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, 
Fred Mitchell, remarked that "Satan and his cabinet are meeting 
right now but from what I gather Satan forgot to tell his cabinet 
about certain things [TPS decision]."  While not directly 
criticizing the decision, the PLP said they were not consulted and 
argued that the move was designed to "cause strife and separation." 
The government was criticized for the high crime rate, unfavorable 
economic climate, high unemployment and the perceived "political 
tricks" which led to the need for a by election.  Chairman Roberts 
said the PM was using the earthquake in Haiti to distract Bahamians 
from the current worsening conditions in their country and for 
political gain, noting "you need Hubert like you need the swine 
flu."  MP Hope Strong noted that although the government had 
invested USD 52 million in dredging Nassau harbor to allow in 
bigger and better cruise ships, tourism numbers were actually down. 
Deputy leader Phillip Brave Davis accused the FNM of "raising taxes 
on children's underwear and the bible." 
 
 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
FNM Candidate - Dr. Duane Sands 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (C)  The FNM candidate is Dr. Duane Sands, a prominent heart.  A 
cousin of National Security Minister Tommy Turnquest, Sands 
received his Doctorate in medicine from Johns Hopkins University. 
In July of 1994 he returned to The Bahamas and founded the 
Cardiothoracic and Vascular Institute of The Bahamas. Sands 
currently serves as Chief of Service for the Department of Surgery 
at the Princess Margaret Hospital, Chairman of the Bahamas Medical 
 
Council, Trustee of the Sir Victor Sassoon Bahamas Heart 
Foundation, member of the Caribbean Cardiac Society and a Fellow of 
the American College of Surgeons.  He also serves as a Director of 
the Central Bank of the Bahamas.  Sands described the FNM as the 
underdogs in the race, acknowledging the constituency was a PLP 
stronghold, he said "This is a good position to be in because it's 
their constituency to lose - and they will lose."  Sands has been 
difficult for the PLP to criticize because he is well respected in 
the community.  Therefore, the focus has been on aligning him with 
the policies of PM Ingraham.  During the PLP rally Brave Davis 
noted that crime was "crippling the country" and he exclaimed, "our 
people are dying good doctor...no heart surgeon can heal the mess 
that the FNM has wrought."  Because the last election in Elizabeth 
was so close, the FNM could potentially win the seat if they are 
able to execute an aggressive campaign and contribute a significant 
amount of resources to the area.  The FNM will hold rallies in 
Elizabeth on January 28, February 4 and 15. 
 
 
 
----------------------------------------- 
 
BDM Candidate - Cassius Stuart 
 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (C)  The Bahamas Democratic Movement (BDM) candidate is 38 year 
old businessman Cassius Stuart.  Stuart told PolOff that the 
constituency was "the Ohio of The Bahamas" and the FNM were using 
the election to test how strong they are given the current high 
rate of crime, unemployment and economic conditions in the country. 
While originally a party of younger members, the BDM now boasts a 
very diverse age range and has garnered significant media attention 
in this election.  Stuart said the only defining line between the 
BDM and the other two major political parties was resources.  He 
said if he could raise USD 250 thousand he would win the election, 
noting that he needed to get free t-shirts out into the community. 
Stuart told PolOff that he was approached by PLP leader Christie 
who said he was looking for someone to mold to eventually take over 
leadership of the PLP.  He said he told Christie he could not align 
himself with either of the major parties because of the endemic 
corruption in both.  Stuart told PolOff that the BDM had already 
been working hard in Elizabeth on financial relief, getting air 
conditioning for the Post Office and providing dialysis machines 
for clinics. 
 
 
 
¶10. (C)  Stuart was highly critical of FNM policies which he said 
have caused the country to be in such a position that it could 
"easily become another Haiti."  He told PolOff that the U.S. has a 
significant stake in not allowing this to happen because "you don't 
want boat loads of Bahamians to begin arriving on your shores."  He 
also raised what he characterized as "significant concerns" about 
the GCOB being courted by the People's Republic of China.  He 
likened PM Ingraham to Robert Mugabe and Jean-Bertrand Aristide, 
and said the PM was "letting the country go to hell and allowing it 
to be bought by China."  He criticized the current education system 
which recently received a D grade average at the secondary level. 
Stuart said the system "was randomly drifting...we're stuck on a 
treadmill and we're moving backwards."  He echoed the sentiments of 
many in civil society who have been calling for a national vision. 
If elected, Stuart said he plans to push for the country to embrace 
e-commerce and invest in innovative technology because "when the 
boat sinks, it sinks for all of us." 
 
 
 
-------------------------------------- 
 
Other Third Party Candidates 
 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶11. (U)  The Fledgling National Development Party (NDP) is led by 
Chairman Dr. Andre Rollins.  His party has been calling for a 
televised national debate before the election as well as 
transparency in campaign financing.  Rollins said his party would 
spend no more than USD 18.5 thousand to contest the election and 
called other party's estimates of expenditures "outrageous and 
obscene."  He accused them of buying votes and thereby threatening 
democracy.  Rollins told the press that any donations over their 
 
budgeted amount would be donated to relief efforts in Haiti. 
 
 
 
¶12. (U)  The Worker's Party is led by Rodney Moncur who 
characterized the PLP and FNM as "a narrow class of relatives, 
friends and schoolmates, business partners and professionals who 
have dominated Bahamian politics for a whole generation."  He 
accused both parties of mismanaging the economy and undermining the 
social fabric of the country  and corrupting public institutions. 
He told the press that under the FNM, "public school have been 
deprived of financial support and are now breeding grounds for 
gangs." 
 
 
 
¶13. (C)  The most recent newcomer on the political scene is the 
United Christian Love Revolution Movement (UCLRM) led by Godfrey 
Pinder.  Pinder told the press he would promote conservative 
politics for the country based on fundamental Christian principles. 
He said it was his aim to create "love universities" in The Bahamas 
which would teach law and theology.  Pinder has a criminal record 
with a significant number of arrests for drug possession, smuggling 
and bribing public officials. 
 
 
 
------------ 
 
Comment 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶14. (C)  The opposition party PLP is likely to win what promises to 
be a close election, which would boost their chances in the 
national elections.  Despite favorable media attention for third 
party candidates, this race is strictly a PLP and FNM affair.  A 
poor economy and increasing crime play favorably for the PLP. 
However, bolstering the position of the FNM was the poor 
performance and lack of resources that the previous PLP candidate 
was able to bring to the constituency.  Although no one has 
publicly questioned Pinder's race, privately, contacts admit it 
could be a significant factor.  The key will be the amount of 
resources each party is able to spend on the election. 
AVANT