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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 000333 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KJUS EAID ASEC RP
SUBJECT: ELECTION STUMBLING BLOCKS RAISE QUESTIONS 
 
REF: A. MANILA 281 (PREPARATIONS ON TRACK) 
     ¶B. MANILA 135 (MEETING WITH AQUINO) 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Leslie A. Bassett, 
reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Election controversies are an established tradition in 
the Philippines, and the 2010 national poll looks certain to 
feature its fair share.  The country is embarking on an 
unprecedented effort to automate the vote nationwide, and 
Filipinos still face considerable hurdles in implementing 
this ambitious goal.  Coincidentally, every office in the 
Presidential line of succession is up for grabs in this 
nationwide vote, and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court 
is also set to retire amid haggling over whether President 
Arroyo has the right to appoint his successor.  Unless the 
eventual presidential victor wins by a significant margin, it 
is possible the weeks following the election will see 
disputes and competing claims of victory.  Nonetheless, as in 
the U.S. system, the Philippine President remains in office 
for many weeks following the election, providing breathing 
room to work on serious issues that may arise.  Moreover, the 
recent inability of any political party or figure to 
duplicate the "people power" mass demonstrations of past 
years coincides with increasing professionalization of the 
military and police, institutions that currently seem to have 
lost their appetite for direct involvement in the political 
process.  As the presidential race develops and the outlines 
of the result become clearer, it will be important for the 
U.S. and the international community to signal the need for 
close adherence to constitutional and legal practices, and to 
dampen the enthusiasm of any disappointed candidate who might 
want to take his fight to the streets rather than to the 
courts.  End Summary. 
 
I WAS ROBBED 
------------ 
 
¶2. (C) A seasoned political observer here has noted that 
there are no losers in Philippine elections, only candidates 
who claim they had the election stolen from them.  A 
combination of election manipulation and candidates' pride 
often leads to results being disputed before the Commission 
on Elections (COMELEC) and the courts.  Indeed COMELEC in 
recent months reversed the outcome of three major 2007 races 
-- for two governorships and a congressional seat -- and 
Senator Loren Legarda, now running again for Vice President, 
only last year reluctantly gave up her battle to be declared 
the legitimate Vice President from the 2004 election. 
 
¶3. (C) There are legitimate reasons for candidates to 
complain.  President Arroyo has been dogged since 2004 by a 
widespread belief that she colluded with COMELEC to ensure 
she won the 2004 presidential election by a wide margin. 
Mindful of the long history of electoral irregularities in 
the Philippines, especially the manipulation of the vote 
count as results are transmitted to the capital, the country 
embarked on an extraordinarily ambitious plan to automate the 
2010 election nationwide.  While this plan held the promise 
of increasing the integrity of elections and reducing 
election-day violence, it also has spawned concern about the 
logistical, technological, and human factors involved in the 
transition. 
 
AUTOMATION CONCERNS 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) The automated election equipment for this election 
consists of optical scanners manufactured by the SmartMatic 
company, which will scan and interpret a ballot with ovals 
shaded by the voters; the machines will tally the votes and 
then transmit results to COMELEC servers.  Similar machines 
worked reasonably well in a regional election in Mindanao in 
¶2008.  An executive of U.S. firm SysTest (protect), 
contracted by COMELEC to test the current systems, recently 
told us that the SmartMatic systems appear able to function 
as intended (ref A).  If these work properly on election day, 
they should provide results instantly accessible to the 
public via the internet. 
 
¶5. (C) Early field testing showed that, while most SmartMatic 
machines worked as intended, some had difficulty scanning 
ballots or transmitting results.  Experts are working to 
address the problems identified to date, but it is impossible 
 
MANILA 00000333  002 OF 003 
 
 
that every machine will function flawlessly, or that polling 
station personnel will smoothly execute fallback plans when 
necessary.  Meanwhile, COMELEC has much work remaining in 
educating voters about the new automated procedures at its 
planned 37,000 polling stations.  Recent mock polls showed 
that voters needed nearly 12 minutes to fill out the complex 
machine-readable ballot, which requires special pens and ink, 
is 25 inches long, double-sided, and lists well over 250 
candidates and parties.  Some election experts expressed 
concern that voters, especially the elderly, will either err 
or choose not to vote out of fear of erring. 
 
PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION AND THE "FAILURE" SCENARIO 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶6. (C) The shift to automated systems has led some Filipinos 
to postulate a failure of the 2010 elections, with widespread 
malfunctioning of the SmartMatic machines (or electronic 
manipulation of the results) precluding a determination of 
election victors and necessitating a follow-on election. 
More fevered minds have voiced concern that President Arroyo 
would take advantage of such a crisis -- or even cause it -- 
in order to remain in office beyond the June 30 end of her 
term in office. 
 
¶7. (C) The Constitution specifies that the line of 
presidential succession begins with the Vice President, 
followed by the Senate President and the Speaker of the House 
of Representatives.  This year, however, all the 
aforementioned posts are up for reelection, and a total 
failure of elections might lead to a constitutional crisis. 
Thus, some in the Senate have argued that current Senate 
President Enrile should resign the Senate presidency in order 
that a Senator with a term lasting until 2013 could assume 
the position and ensure continuity of governance.  (Enrile 
has shown no interest in this proposal.) 
 
¶8. (C) Anxiety about a possible constitutional crisis has led 
observers to speculate about Supreme Court involvement. 
Current Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno faces 
mandatory retirement because of his age on May 17, and the 
constitution precludes President Arroyo from making 
appointments in the final two months of her term.  (Some 
Filipinos have questioned whether that provision covers 
judicial appointees.)  The media has hypothesized about the 
political ramifications of a vacancy on the court, though 
legal observers suggest the Court could still function with 
an acting Chief Justice.  Some of the debate over President 
Arroyo's right to appoint Puno's successor as Chief Justice 
may be connected to jockeying among Supreme Court Justices 
for the top position, rather than principled concern about 
election-related ramifications. 
 
PUBLIC, SECURITY FORCES NOT PRIMED FOR ACTION 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) While some leading candidates may be predisposed to 
believe and foster a perception that victory was rightfully 
theirs, it is not clear they can bring the public out into 
the streets in large enough numbers to change the outcome of 
a disputed election.  Current Liberal party presidential 
candidate Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III recalls well the 
success of his mother, Cory Aquino, in drawing upon "people 
power" to oust authoritarian President Marcos in 1986.  And 
Noynoy Aquino has contemplated whether he might resort to 
mass demonstrations if he felt the election had been 
illegally manipulated (ref B).  But the public has not 
appeared eager to change the Philippines' leadership through 
street protests, even though prodded repeatedly in recent 
years by some influential opponents of Arroyo.  We attribute 
this in part to the Arroyo administration's success in 
providing an economic "safety valve" in the form of easy 
emigration for overseas employment, and also in helping to 
keep consumer staples affordable.  Of equal importance, the 
security forces have made no significant attempt at mutiny 
since 2003 (although there have been more recent incidents of 
lesser import), and the military and police have not shown a 
notable inclination toward supporting any mass movement in 
favor of a particular candidate. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) We believe fears of an election failure and a 
succession crisis are overblown.  As noted above, the 
SmartMatic machines appear reasonably reliable.  And in the 
event of widespread problems on election day, the Philippine 
 
MANILA 00000333  003 OF 003 
 
 
government and legislature remain in place for approximately 
seven weeks -- hopefully long enough time to devise and build 
consensus around a solution. Much of the tumult over a 
possible failed election can be written off to a penchant -- 
particularly among the media -- for political melodrama. 
Nevertheless, the Philippines' history of election fraud and 
political violence, as well as the technical hurdles involved 
in the automation effort, underscore the need for continued 
international efforts to help ensure a credible and 
transparent election process.  Mission will continue its 
broad-ranging efforts with the International Foundation for 
Electoral Systems (IFES), The Asia Foundation, and the 
American Bar Association to provide COMELEC with technical 
assistance for managing automated election processes; to 
support election monitoring by NGOs; and to support the 
Philippine judiciary in anticipation of election protests. 
The Embassy, coordinating with other diplomatic missions, 
will conduct its own election observation effort with broad 
geographic coverage, to ensure we have credible, first-hand 
information about the election process as it takes place. 
And we will be prepared, in case of a crisis, to emphasize 
publicly the importance of all actors following 
constitutional and legal procedures to address whatever 
problems arise. 
BASSETT