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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LONDON 000313 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UK
SUBJECT: UK ELECTION:  HUNG PARLIAMENT LOOKING MORE LIKELY 
 
REF: A. LONDON 150 (NOTAL) 
     ¶B. 09 LONDON 2425 
     ¶C. 09 LONDON 2745 (NOTAL) 
     ¶D. 09 LONDON 2844 (NOTAL) 
 
LONDON 00000313  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Louis B. Susman, reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1. (C/NF) Summary.  Narrowing polling data suggests the 
increased likelihood of a hung parliament in the UK's next 
general election, expected May 6.  Despite small but 
sustained leads in the polls, the Conservative Party has not 
managed to seal the deal with the British electorate and 
faces the prospect of winning enough seats to make it the 
largest party in the House of Commons while failing to 
achieve a workable majority.  Key battlegrounds will, as 
ever, be marginal constituencies and the ability of the 
parties (particularly the Conservatives) to court 
all-important swing voters.  As the parties struggle to 
distinguish themselves from one another on the key election 
issues of housing, education, health care, the economy, and 
job creation, additional factors affecting swing votes will 
likely include voter turnout, traditional class voting, the 
party leaders' popularity, and how the leaders fare in the 
first televised debates in UK election history.  The 
Conservatives need high turnout of their core voters PLUS a 
strong swing vote in order to gain a majority.  Without this, 
a hung parliament is a strong possibility. End summary. 
 
 
Polls Suggest Hung Parliament 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C/NF) With the UK's next general election expected within 
90 days (May 6 is the likely date), polls that have been 
broadly static for several months are beginning to suggest 
the increased possibility of a hung parliament in which no 
party wins an outright majority.  Polls by YouGov and ComRes 
at the end of January put the Conservatives at 38 percent, 
down two points from December, while Labour rose one point to 
31 percent, and the Liberal Democrats were up two at 19 
percent.  The new numbers are roughly in line with the 
40-30-20 split that the Conservatives, Labour, and the Lib 
Dems have respectively seen in voting intentions for their 
parties since 2007, but the slim and fluctuating margins 
indicate that, despite heavy campaign spending in marginal 
constituencies and slick advertising, the Conservatives have 
yet to convince the British electorate to trust them to 
govern. 
 
¶3. (C/NF) The results are far from definitive:  political 
polling in the UK has long been used as more of a short-term 
snapshot rather than a long-term prediction of voting 
intentions.  The Conservatives have told us that they ideally 
need a 42 percent poll lead with a ten-point spread over 
Labour come election day in order to secure a clear 
parliamentary majority (ref B).  That lead could effectively 
slip down to 38 percent if the Tories felt they no longer had 
to face "anti-Conservative tactical voting" of the past (i.e. 
protest votes for any candidates other than the Conservative 
in a constituency).  Despite the broadly favorable polling, 
Conservative confidence, and a deep campaign war chest, the 
Tories have failed to convince the broad electorate that 
David Cameron is a trustworthy alternative to Prime Minister 
Gordon Brown.  What may result is a House of Commons with the 
Conservatives as the largest single party, but with 
insufficient numbers to reach a majority.  The key question 
will be how well the Conservatives have courted swing voters 
and marginal constituencies in the run-up to the election. 
 
 
Swing Votes Are Key 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (C/NF)  In order to secure a majority of one in the House 
of Commons, the Conservatives need to win 117 new seats in 
the next election.  To do this the Tories must focus heavily 
on convincing swing voters -- those who voted for other 
parties in the last election  -- to come into the 
Conservative fold.  Though the Conservatives have deployed a 
robust "targeted seats" campaign, supported by the party's 
GBP 18 million campaign fund, to attract voters in marginal 
constituencies or those who that have not traditionally voted 
Conservative in the past, the party needs to secure an 
overall swing of over 6.9 percent among Labour voters to gain 
an outright parliamentary majority (ref A).  A swing this 
large from left to right has not occurred in British politics 
in the post-war era; the largest swing from Labour to 
Conservative since 1945 has been no more than 5.3 percent, 
while Labour attracted a 10.2 percent swing in its 1997 
 
LONDON 00000313  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
landslide victory.  Most recent Labour to Conservative swings 
were 3.2 and 1.8 percent in 2005 and 2001, respectively. 
Additionally, no government as far behind in the polls as 
Labour currently is has succeeded in winning a general 
election.  While the statistics of past elections are not 
absolutes, they are illustrative of the difficulties both 
Labour and the Conservatives face this election.  The polling 
"lead" that the Conservatives have enjoyed more-or-less 
steadily since the end of 2007 is misleading.  If the swing 
the Conservatives are able to attract falls below about 6.9 
percent, the result would probably translate into a hung 
parliament, depending on the distribution of the vote. 
 
 
Importance of Marginal Constituencies 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C/NF)  The Labour Party has performed strongly in 
marginal constituencies in the last three elections. 
Labour's landslide victory in 1997 demonstrated the party's 
ability to win small majorities in marginal seats. 
Similarly, in the 2005 election Labour used the same formula 
targeting marginal constituencies -- winning 88 seats with 
less than a majority of 10 percent.  Efficient campaigning 
and appeals to middle income voters have been effective 
Labour tools in courting marginal seats, and the question 
will be to what degree the Conservatives can apply this 
technique to draw swing votes in these constituencies. 
 
 
The Queen's Role 
---------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU/NF) A hung parliament occurs when no party secures an 
absolute majority of parliamentary seats during a general 
election. The Queen's constitutional role after an election 
is to summon the leader of the majority party and invite him, 
as Prime Minister, to form a government.  Lacking the command 
of a majority, the leader with the largest number of seats 
would be forced to turn to smaller parties to explore 
coalition options.  UK media has reported that the civil 
service has begun preparing for the possibility of a hung 
parliament by codifying the Queen's role in the event no 
party reaches majority.  The Queen's advisors are in close 
contact with each of the parties and will be in a position to 
advise her in the event of a possible coalition forced by a 
hung parliament. 
 
 
Key Factors Affecting the Swing 
------------------------------- 
 
 
¶7. (C/NF) Popularity and Timing:  A number of factors will 
influence swing voting and the chance of a hung parliament. 
Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who was never elected to the 
post, remains uncharismatic; just a few weeks ago, he fended 
off a leadership challenge -- but the reluctance of his 
"supporters" shows.  He has indicated his intention to remain 
at the helm of the Labour party through the election and has 
presided over a growing disaffection (and perhaps voter 
fatigue with Labour, in power since 1997) toward the 
government and Parliament among the electorate.  Brown 
confidante and former Defense Secretary Des Browne told us 
that he did not believe there was enough time for Brown to 
turn things around in the remaining months before the 
election.  Cameron's Tories, however, have not succeeded in 
seizing the opportunity that Brown's lack of popularity has 
presented.  Cameron, who has regularly polled as more 
trustworthy and a better leader than Brown, has tried to 
distinguish himself from Brown on the budget by calling for 
an age of austerity, without detailing what cuts his 
government would make, and has fashioned himself as a new 
generation Tory, pledging to empower individuals and 
communities.  But, if Cameron has not been able to capitalize 
by this late in the game, what are his chances of attracting 
the needed amount of swing votes by May? 
 
¶8. (C/NF) First-time Debates:  A new feature in the election 
mix is the introduction of three debates among the three 
party leaders once the election date has been announced.  The 
UK's parliamentary system pits the leaders against one 
another each Wednesday during Prime Minister's Questions in 
the House of Commons, but presidential-style debates are new 
to the UK and -- coming within weeks of the election -- could 
play an important role among undecided and potential swing 
voters.  As a polished and formidable public speaker and 
former public relations executive, Cameron stands to lose the 
most in the debates as expectations of his performance will 
 
LONDON 00000313  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
be high.  Brown, a weaker speaker whose public remarks are 
highly varied, will likely draw or do slightly better than 
expected.  Labour insiders have told us the key for Brown 
will be not to appear angry or grumpy during the debates, as 
he is often perceived by the public.  The telegenic Lib Dem 
leader Nick Clegg -- the least recognizable of the three -- 
will do relatively well simply by virtue of being included. 
 
¶9. (C/NF) Class Voting and Turnout:  UK voters tend to revert 
to their traditional party allegiances as an election nears 
-- despite what they have told pollsters about their voting 
intentions in the pre-election period.  While voters no 
longer distinguish themselves strictly along the ideological 
lines of the 1970s and 80s -- socialists versus capitalists 
-- there remain strong class ties to voting patterns.  A key 
trend to watch in this election will be whether working class 
voters are prepared to swing from their traditional support 
of Labour in favor of the Conservatives' "fixing broken 
Britain" manifesto -- in other words, whether Tory plans to 
encourage smaller and more accountable government, empower 
communities, promote law and order, and ensure personal and 
fiscal responsibility translate into votes from the working 
class.  A second factor will be whether the Conservatives are 
able to make inroads into middle income Lib Dem 
constituencies.  The Tories are banking on a strategy to 
attract these working and middle class voters to deliver the 
needed 6.9 percent swing; if they fall short, so will the 
party's majority. 
 
¶10. (C/NF) Turnout in the last election in 2005 was 61.4 
percent nationally.  If turnout remains at this level while 
polling still suggests a 40/30/20 split across the parties, 
political observers believe the result will be a hung 
parliament.  Between 1945 and 1997, UK turnout was roughly 
between 71-83 percent; 2001 turnout fell to 59.4 percent, and 
rose again in 2005 to 61.4 percent.  A key determinant is 
whether voter disaffection with the Labour government and 
particularly with PM Brown will be enough to reverse the 
turnout trend and bring voters to the polls in sufficiently 
large numbers that -- combined with an adequate swing 
nationally or in marginal seats -- will push Cameron over the 
top. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (C/NF) Though current polling numbers suggest it would be 
difficult for the Conservatives to win outright, the election 
has always been theirs to lose.  Typically, the Tories (whose 
core supporters are regular and committed voters) hope for 
low turnout in elections as it suggests that Labour and Lib 
Dem voters have stayed home.  This year, however, with the 
polls indicating only a relatively modest Conservative lead, 
Cameron needs the almost impossible combination of high voter 
turnout and a sizable swing vote.  His party is hoping that 
Labour's low popularity and the Tories' "targeted seats" 
campaign might be enough to produce a clean win for the 
Conservatives.  Shortfalls in either of these variables will 
point to a hung parliament and the need for Cameron to search 
for coalition partners among the third parties. 
 
Visit London's Classified Website: 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom 
 
SUSMAN