VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPC #0107/01 0561422
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251422Z FEB 10

FM AMEMBASSY LOME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9421
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS LOME 000107 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SECSTATE FOR AF/W, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV TO
SUBJECT: TOGO: NEW INFORMAL SNAPSHOT OF PUBLIC SENTIMENT 
 
REF: LOME 437 
 
¶1. SUMMARY. As post personnel have traveled around Togo prior 
to the March 4 presidential election, a picture has emerged 
not only of the views of those closely involved with the 
election, but also those who are not. Since there are no 
polls in Togo, these views are largely anecdotal:  gathered 
in one-on-one conversations with Togolese and expatriates 
from all walks of life. They give a picture of a populace 
that is largely apathetic about the election and resigned 
that the incumbent will win; slightly hopeful for improved 
conditions in the country; eager for a non-violent election 
period; and ready for the election to be concluded so that 
they can get on with their lives. END SUMMARY. 
 
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GENERAL MOOD 
------------ 
 
¶2. Many are apathetic about the election; some even say that 
they do not plan to vote. The preference is for a quick 
election, as there is little expectation of change and many 
are discouraged about the irresponsible behavior of 
politicians in general. They are resigned to the fact the 
incumbent will win and that the democratic process will take 
a back seat to President Faure Gnassingbe's desire to remain 
in power. 
 
¶3. At the same time there is some respect for President 
Faure, although he is not popular. He is a familiar figure, 
and during his last five years in office economic conditions 
have improved and security conditions have relaxed. Few seem 
eager to test someone else's management style. Faure's slick 
campaign is ever-present with its professionally produced 
posters printed in France, catchy slogans, and targeted 
public appearances. The campaign elicits admiration, albeit 
grudging, even among opposition supporters. Some grumble that 
the money spent on this lavish campaign is a waste and could 
be better used to improve the general infrastructure such as 
building roads. At the same time, though, the opposition 
candidates are seen as disorganized, dishonest, and divided; 
focused on the minutiae of election process criticism and not 
on larger issues. 
 
---------------- 
SECURITY MATTERS 
---------------- 
 
¶4. The excessive, brutal and arbitrary violence of the 2005 
presidential election is seared into the country's collective 
memory, and no one wants it repeated. The general consensus 
is that President Faure, backed by military and security 
forces, is determined to maintain public order during the 
election. The Presidential Election Security Force (FOSEP), 
funded by the European Union and trained by the French, is 
well-prepared and has clear instructions to quash any 
gatherings that threaten this order. Faced with this, even 
those who support the opposition are very cautious about 
running the personal risk of demonstrating. They remember 
that they were called to the streets in 2005 by opposition 
leaders who abandoned them and even left the country when the 
demonstrations turned violent. Many indicate they prefer to 
keep their heads down and be very careful for a few days 
before and after the election, particularly when election 
results are announced. They choose instead to focus on family 
and friends, improving their socio-economic status, and 
staying out of trouble with the security forces. 
 
----------------------- 
SHOP NOW, BUT CAREFULLY 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. Families are stockpiling food and basic necessities in 
case stores close. Most have spent all their January salaries 
for these preparations and are hoping to be paid their 
February salaries before the election. Those without the 
money to stockpile are worried and are borrowing money from 
friends. Business people are anxious, though, as the purchase 
of non-essential items is delayed. Sales are down, the port 
of Lome is quiet after a Christmas period surge, and 
customers who can--both wholesale and retail--are avoiding 
Lome during the election period. 
 
----------- 
STAY OR GO? 
----------- 
 
¶6. Although some Togolese are hopping the border to stay with 
extended family during the election period, most are simply 
staying put. Public schools plan to remain open but are 
rushing through their curriculums in case they must close. 
The expected surge in demand for U.S. and Schengen visas--the 
two most popular--did not occur. By contrast, through, many 
U.S. and European expatriates, primarily those who are not 
also citizens of Togo, are choosing the election time to 
vacation abroad. Since some of the 2005 violence targeted 
French and German property, businessmen whose companies are 
loathe to risk a repeat are sending their expatriates out of 
the country, other expatriates are leaving temporarily on 
their own. The American International School and the French 
lycee in Lome have adjusted  vacation schedules to 
accommodate this exodus. However, the British school is 
remaining open. 
 
 
¶7. COMMENT. The Togolese are resigned and apathetic largely 
because they do not believe that transparent and free 
elections are possible in Togo. They also remember the 2005 
election violence and do not want a repeat. Most people think 
that the election will be generally peaceful; however, there 
is a slight possibility of violence. The government is 
willing to use force to stop open dissent before it gathers 
strength, and there may be dissent from certain radical 
organizations such as the opposition's Citizens' Movement for 
Change (MCA) and the ruling party's Group for the Support of 
the Party (GRAP) (reftel). Overall, though, the populace's 
lack of enthusiasm for change is feeding into the ruling 
party's probable victory. END COMMENT. 
Hawkins