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PP RUEHDBU RUEHSL
DE RUEHKV #0264/01 0501612
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 191612Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9350
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000264 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP RS
SUBJECT: YATSENYUK CLAIMS HE HAS FORTY FROM OU-PSD FOR NEW 
REGIONS-LED COALITION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C)  Former presidential candidate Arseniy Yatsenyuk told 
the Ambassador February 17 that he has forty Our Ukraine - 
People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) MPs who would be willing to 
take down PM Tymoshenko's coalition and join a new coalition 
with Yanukovych's Party of Regions.  He intimated that he 
would receive the PM job in exchange.  Members of OU-PSD and 
the Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) continue to tell us that a new 
coalition is far from guaranteed.  People close to Yanukovych 
are, however, optimistic it will come together the week after 
Yanukovych's February 25 inauguration.  Gone are Yatsenyuk's 
boastful declarations that he would become "an opposition 
leader to reckon with."  End Summary. 
 
New Coalition: Yatsenyuk as PM? 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Former presidential candidate Arseniy Yatsenyuk told 
the Ambassador February 17 that he has forty members (out of 
72) of the Our Ukraine - People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) 
parliamentary faction ready to form a new coalition with 
Party of Regions (Regions) MPs.  Under rules of coalition 
formation, this majority of OU-PSD deputies would deliver the 
entire faction count (72) to the coalition calculation.  The 
defection of a majority of OU-PSD would thus take down the 
Tymoshenko government. 
 
¶3. (C) When asked if one of the conditions for forming the 
coalition would be for him to serve as PM, Yatsenyuk told us 
that his group of MPs would not put him forward for the 
position (due to their own egos and arrogance).  However they 
would support him if Yanukovych nominated him.  He added that 
he would not ask Yanukovych to be appointed; rather, 
Yanukovych would have to offer him the position and agree to 
his reform plan. 
 
¶4. (C) Ridding Ukraine of oligarchic control tops his 
conditions for becoming PM, Yatsenyuk said.  Second, the 
Regions-OU/PSD government must agree to pass an unpopular but 
necessary budget.  Third, Ukraine must increase its tariffs. 
Finally, domestic and foreign debt must be audited and the 
debts for state enterprises such as Naftohaz and the rail, 
nuclear energy and road construction companies must be 
restructured. 
 
¶5. (C) According to Yatsenyuk, Yanukovych understands that he 
needs a PM who represents the electorate in Western and 
Central Ukraine in order to unify the country.  Yanukovych 
will wait until after his February 25 inauguration to form 
the new parliamentary coalition. 
 
Tymoshenko Expected Moscow to Save Her 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) According to Yatsenyuk, Tymoshenko spent the week 
after the election trying to call in her remaining chips with 
the Russians to get them to pressure Yanukovych into agreeing 
to a "grand coalition" with Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT). 
However, "no one, not Putin, not Medvedev, can keep her in 
the premiership now," Yatsenyuk declared.  Tymoshenko 
apparently believed that Putin was obligated to help her 
because of the gas deal she signed, and she was ready to call 
him but was talked out of it by her closest advisors.  The 
visit to Kyiv last week of Medvedev's Chief of Staff, Sergey 
Naryshkin, and Regions' seemingly unsolicited public 
statements rejecting a coalition with BYuT, were indicators 
of the behind-the-scenes maneuvering, Yatsenyuk maintained. 
 
Fear of Early Elections Motivating Factor 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Yatsenyuk indicated that the threat of early 
parliamentary elections is motivating current MPs among the 
Lytvyn Bloc, the Communists and OU-PSD, most of whom would 
likely lose their seats in such elections, to negotiate with 
Yanukovych about a new coalition.  On the flip side, 
Tymoshenko, too, is "scared to death" of early elections, 
Yatsenyuk claimed, and is working to keep her coalition 
intact in order to regain popular support by operating as the 
leader of a viable opposition.  She, however, gave up her 
seat in parliament to become PM and, according to Yatsenyuk, 
will have a very difficult time trying to run things from the 
outside. 
 
BYuT, OU-PSD MPs: What Coalition? 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
KYIV 00000264  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶8. (C) Notwithstanding Yatsenyuk's claim to lead a bloc of 
forty MPs ready for a coalition, OU-PSD MP Mykola Katerynchuk 
told us February 18 that there does not currently exist a 
majority of his faction ready to defect and join a new 
coalition.  He rejected the idea that more could be enticed 
to join if the premiership were offered to someone from their 
ranks.  Specifically regarding Yatsenyuk, Katerynchuk told us 
that many faction members recall how, after they made him 
Rada Speaker in 2006, he stopped talking to them and failed 
to represent their interests.  "We will not make that mistake 
again," he averred.  He did believe, however, that Yanukovych 
would succeed in dissolving the Rada and calling early 
parliamentary elections. 
 
¶9. (C) BYuT MP Andriy Shevchenko, a Tymoshenko insider, also 
doubted that Regions would be able to form a new coalition 
with OU-PSD.  He was convinced that Regions would not give 
the premiership to someone from another party and, therefore, 
OU-PSD MPs would not agree to dissolve the existing 
coalition.  Shevchenko could envision, however, Regions 
promising the premiership to them to break the coalition and 
then reneging on the promise after a new coalition was 
formed.  He rejected the claim that Tymoshenko is afraid of 
early elections -- "How else would she return to Parliament 
and lead the opposition?"  Rather it is Regions that is 
afraid because early elections would bring into the Rada new 
players from Yatsenyuk's and Tihipko's parties. 
 
¶10.  (C) Shevchenko anticipated that Yanukovych would 
successfully dissolve the Tymoshenko government after the 
inauguration through a no-confidence vote ("She will never 
resign").  The Rada would then have sixty days to nominate a 
new PM, which Shevchenko did not think possible, after which 
Yanukovych would call early parliamentary elections. 
 
Regions Insiders: 90% Certain of New Coalition 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶11. (C) Sources close to Yanukovych have told us that they 
were confident Regions would form a new parliamentary 
coalition with OU-PSD MPs the week after Yanukovych's 
inauguration.  They also confirmed that Yatsenyuk was 
currently the "top choice" for the premiership.  Yanukovych's 
Chief of Staff, Serhiy Lyovochkyn, told the Ambassador on 
February 18 that he thought such a coalition was close to 90% 
certain.  He added that Yatsenyuk was a likely choice for PM 
because "he is an OU-PSD MP who can deliver the coalition, 
and he is weaker than Serhiy Tihipko." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (C)  The contrast between "Yatsenyuk the candidate" and 
"Yatsenyuk the potential Prime Minister" was striking, given 
his earlier declarations that he would not accept a position 
in a Tymoshenko or Yanukovych government.  Gone too was his 
bravado about being a formidable opposition leader who would 
make Yanukovych miss Tymoshenko.  We are reminded of comments 
Yatsenyuk made to us last year about politics being 
fundamentally about "getting the best deal you can." 
Coalition talks continue in earnest; the matter will 
ultimately be decided by whether Regions can convince a 
majority of the notoriously fractious OU-PSD to "put up" with 
a new Region-led coalition, and thus keep their Rada seats a 
little longer, or "shut up" and risk losing it all in 
pre-term parliamentary elections. 
TEFFT