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INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000235 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: FOR TYMOSHENKO, "BETTER TO BE A VICTIM THAN A 
LOSER" 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Nearly a week has passed since the February 7 
presidential runoff, and PM Yuliya Tymoshenko has been 
uncharacteristically absent from the airwaves, refusing to 
appear in public or release a public statement under her own 
hand.  Officials from her campaign, however, have made 
numerous accusations of electoral malfeasance by Party of 
Regions (Regions) and have vowed to fight the returns in 
court.  MPs close to Tymoshenko admit that these court 
challenges have little merit and that Tymoshenko "lost the 
election."  However, they tell us that a new parliamentary 
coalition for Regions that would enable President-elect 
Yanukovych to dissolve the Tymoshenko government is "far from 
a done deal."  A Regions MP confirms to us that negotiations 
with members of Tymoshenko's coalition to defect are ongoing 
and mired by often mutually exclusive demands from the 
individual MPs.  Insiders believe, however, that Tymoshenko 
will break her silence after the Central Election Commission 
certifies the results to announce her plans to become 
opposition leader.  End summary. 
 
 
TYMOSHENKO'S COURT CHALLENGE WITHOUT MERIT 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Our Ukraine - People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) MP Roman 
Zvarych told us on February 12 that he has been in direct 
contact with PM Tymoshenko and was tasked by her to both 
fight to a) preserve the existing parliamentary coalition 
between OU-PSD, the Lytvyn Bloc and Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko 
(BYuT); and b) create an opposition plan should this first 
task prove impossible.  Under no circumstances would 
Tymoshenko resign the PM's position, he stated.  He described 
her current state as "defeated, unwell, and exhausted," and 
told us that there had been serious concerns about her health 
during the last weeks of campaigning.  "She told me we lost," 
Zvarych said, "but I reminded her that only five people in 
Ukraine's history have gotten more than 45% of the vote in a 
presidential election, and she is one of them.  This gives us 
room to fight."  Zvarych conceded that Tymoshenko had lost 
the election, and that he had advised her that appealing 
local court cases to the High Administrative Court would be 
futile.  "We have no legal basis to have the election results 
thrown out.  I hope she realizes that, but who knows what 
Yuliya will decide?" 
 
¶3. (C) OSCE/ODIHR's legal analyst explained to us on February 
12 that the observation mission did not believe there was any 
merit to Tymoshenko's claims of widespread election fraud. 
He described the few specific allegations that the PM's team 
has provided to ODIHR as "nickel-and-dime stuff" that, even 
if proven valid, would have no effect on the election 
outcome.  ODIHR is concerned that Tymoshenko's team continues 
to publicly claim massive falsification, but ignores ODIHR's 
repeated requests for information to back up their 
allegations.  Fraud on the scale that Tymoshenko is claiming, 
according to the legal analyst, would require an "enormous 
conspiracy" at multiple levels of the election system and 
would be visible to all serious election observation 
organizations.  He chalked up the PM's repeated claims that 
the election was stolen to a Ukrainian proverb that says it 
is "better to be a victim than a loser." 
 
NEW PARLIAMENTARY COALITION "NOT A DONE DEAL" 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Zvarych also argued that the new Party of Regions 
(Regions) coalition is far from being a "done deal." 
According to him, the Lytvyn Bloc is waiting for a decision 
from the members of the OU-PSD faction, whose votes (at least 
37) are needed to dissolve the existing coalition with Lytvyn 
and Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT), before the Lytvyn Bloc 
will agree to join a new coalition with Regions.  According 
to Zvarych, there are not at this point 37 OU-PSD members who 
are ready to make this move. 
 
¶5. (C) There are many factors at play in the decision to 
enter a new coalition, Zvarych continued.  For Lytvyn, who 
received an abysmal 2.35% of the vote in the January 17 first 
round, it is the fear of pre-term parliamentary elections 
(where it is predicted that his bloc would lose most of its 
seats) that motivates his decision to stay in the existing 
coalition with BYuT and OU-PSD, or to support the formation 
of a new coalition with Regions.  "Regions obviously does not 
have the 37 members of OU-PSD that it needs to vote the 
Tymoshenko government out of power," he added, "or they would 
have already started the process to do so.  We are calling 
 
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their bluff and will continue to fight for the existing 
coalition." 
 
¶6. (C) What will happen within the OU-PSD faction, which is 
currently comprised of several disparate parties with 
competing interests, is not clear.  Party of Regions Deputy 
Faction Leader Volodymyr Makeyenko told us that the groups 
within OU-PSD are fracturing and that the MPs want to 
negotiate with Regions separately.  He said that now OU-PSD 
"has 72 faction leaders."  Makeyenko explained that they are 
working with as many MPs as possible, but the many competing 
interests within OU-PSD are often cross-cutting and MP 
demands are often mutually exclusive.  He said that differing 
groups within OU-PSD have variously demanded the Prime 
Ministership for President Yushchenko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 
Serhiy Tihipko, or former PM Yuriy Yekhanurov as the price 
for their backing for a new coalition.  Makeyenko said that 
coalition negotiations are still ongoing, but that he is 
confident they will ultimately be successful, because OU-PSD 
MPs will eventually understand that a coalition is better 
than losing their seats -- a fate awaiting most of them in a 
new election. 
 
¶7. (C) Zvarych told us that he and the MPs with whom he is 
aligned will most certainly stick by Tymoshenko and are 
preparing to create a formidable opposition.  There are two 
scenarios under which this could happen:  The first would be 
to maintain the existing coalition and deprive Regions of a 
no-confidence vote against the Tymoshenko government. 
Tymoshenko would thus remain PM.  The second scenario, which 
would take place if a new coalition is formed and 
Tymoshenko's government is dissolved, would be to "make so 
much hell" for Yanukovych that he has no choice but to agree 
to pre-term parliamentary elections at a time that would be 
convenient for those in the opposition. 
 
DEPUTY JUSTICE MINISTER CONCURS 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) We also spoke February 12 with Deputy Justice Minister 
Yevgen Korniychuk, a Tymoshenko loyalist.   Korniychuk agreed 
that Tymoshenko felt beleaguered.  She regarded the 
congratulatory calls from President Obama and other European 
leaders as premature since the CEC has not yet certified 
final results.  Korniychuk admitted that Tymoshenko's legal 
case was extremely weak.   If the campaign cannot reveal 
something more significant in the next day or two he will 
advise Tymoshenko to ease back on court challenges, resign, 
and lead the opposition.   Korniychuk maintained that Regions 
had bought substantial votes, but that BYuT would not be able 
to prove it in court. 
 
¶9. (C) Korniychuk acknowledged that Regions was engaged in an 
intense effort to win over a majority of OU-PSD MPs to oust 
Tymoshenko and form a new coalition.  He predicted that, in 
the end, they would probably succeed.   Tymoshenko, he 
contended, would never agree that Yanukovych had won. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) We expect Tymoshenko to break her silence after the 
Central Election Commission certifies the election result, 
possibly as early as February 13.  A victim line is probable: 
she will say Yanukovych did not win, and has no moral right 
to be President of Ukraine, whether or not she pushes the 
court cases hard.  Her fate as PM appears in the hands of the 
inchoate OU-PSD faction -- and the ability of Regions to woo 
them. 
TEFFT