VZCZCXRO9748
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0310/01 0531419
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 221418Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0258
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA FWD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000310 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM EAID SU
SUBJECT: SE GRATION MEETS SOUTHERN OPPOSITION LEADERS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On February 18 U.S. Special Envoy (SE) to Sudan, 
General Scott Gration met in Juba with Southern Sudan opposition 
party leaders who told him that funding for opposition parties and 
space for campaigning are critical if there is to be any chance for 
free and fair elections in Southern Sudan.  Attendees see a glimmer 
of hope for free elections in the south in the fact that 374 
members of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) were 
ejected from the party on February 17 for running as independent 
candidates, stating that the SPLM's fracture creates space for the 
opposition.  Attendees also widely rejected Yasir Arman, the SPLM's 
presidential candidate, for ethnic and strategic reasons.  The SPLM 
is clearly using illegitimate means to make life difficult for 
southern opposition parties, an approach to democracy that may be 
difficult to unlearn.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
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Funding for Opposition Parties Critical 
 
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¶2. (SBU) On February 18 SE Gration met with Southern Sudan 
opposition party leaders who told him that funding for opposition 
parties is critical if there is to be any chance for free and fair 
elections in Southern Sudan.  Leaders in attendance represented 
every significant party in the southern opposition, including the 
National Congress Party (NCP) and Lam Akol's SPLM - Democratic 
Change (SPLM-DC).  Attendees stated that funding for the SPLM is 
overwhelming by comparison with that available to opposition 
parties, largely because the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) 
and the SPLM are not truly separate, and the funds of the GoSS 
support the SPLM and its election campaign.  They also asserted 
that the SPLM receives aid from the international community, either 
directly, or through aid received by the GoSS.  Further, they 
pointed out that as the incumbent party, the SPLM is in a position 
to take credit for development and dole out money to influence or 
buy votes. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Attendees stated that opposition party funding is 
necessary to fund campaign transportation, voter education, and 
most importantly, ballot box monitoring during elections. 
Attendees noted that having monitors in all voting centers will be 
a huge undertaking and expense, and while they welcomed 
international monitors, international monitors will be wholly 
insufficient and most polling locations will be monitored solely by 
party members.  Attendees argued that ultimately, funding for 
opposition parties is about making the electoral process more 
transparent.  Attendees made clear that they look to the 
international community for this help because neither the 
Government of National Unity nor the GoSS will provide funds. 
 
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Space to Campaign Crucial 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Opposition party leaders in attendance stated that the 
SPLM and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are intimidating 
their candidates and obstructing their parties' campaign 
activities.  They agreed that generally it is safe for them to 
campaign in Juba because of the international presence, but that 
when their party members enter rural areas they are truly in danger 
from SPLA forces.  They noted that the SPLA is in effect the army 
of the SPLM, not the army of Southern Sudan, and that many SPLM 
politicians are also SPLA commanders. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Attendees stated that only the international community, 
and the signatories to the CPA in particular, could hope to reign 
in the SPLM's campaign of intimidation and obstruction.  In fact 
they placed some of the blame for the SPLM's behavior on the 
international community, and the U.S. in particular, stating that 
U.S support to the SPLM has made them strong, and that the SPLM 
would not act in this manner without support from the West.  They 
said that if these activities continue unabated, the opposition 
 
KHARTOUM 00000310  002 OF 002 
 
 
will be forced to withdraw from the election because they cannot 
face the forces of the SPLA and police. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Opposition party attendees see a glimmer of hope for free 
elections in the south in the fact that 374 members of the SPLM 
were ejected from the party on February 17 for running as 
independent candidates.  Attendees stated that the SPLM's fracture 
creates space for the opposition because if the SPLM were united it 
would squeeze out all opposition.  Attendees asserted that it is 
not possible to peacefully split with the SPLM, and that the SPLM 
will crack down on these independents as they have done on other 
opposition parties.  As a consequence, attendees opined that these 
independents will not return to the SPLM after elections, but will 
instead form a new party. 
 
 
 
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Yasir Arman Opposed by Southern Opposition 
 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Attendees widely condemned the SPLM's presidential 
candidate.  On a personal level they asked how the SPLM could ask 
them to vote for a Muslim Arab.  On a strategic level, attendees 
expressed a fear that the election of Arman will create confusion 
and discord in the south.  They stated that, if elected, Arman will 
seek to delay the referendum in order to have more time to make 
unity attractive, an idea they categorically opposed.  Attendees 
said they will do everything they can to ensure Arman is not 
elected.  They did not have the same opinion about GoSS President 
and SPLM nominee Salva Kiir, whom (with the exception of SPLM-DC) 
they support, and they indicated that their hope is to achieve a 
divided government, with the SPLM controlling the Presidency of 
Southern Sudan and the opposition parties controlling the Southern 
Sudan Legislative Assembly. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Southern opposition leaders in attendance spoke 
convincingly about the problems facing them.  The SPLM is clearly 
making life difficult for opposition parties in the South.  The 
Government of Southern Sudan has received nearly unconditional 
support from the international community and appears less concerned 
with the credibility of elections than with consolidating authority 
in the lead-up to the southern referendum.  Even the opposition 
party leaders stated that they want a unified south until after the 
referendum, and that they hope to democratically transform the SPLM 
and the South at some later date.  The danger is that a precedent 
will be established in Southern Sudan whereby the incumbent party 
bullies and crushes opposition, and that this approach to democracy 
will be difficult to unlearn.  End Comment. 
WHITEHEAD