VZCZCXRO9345
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0296/01 0530901
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 220856Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0234
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000296 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREF PGOV PHUM PREL SU
SUBJECT: SE GRATION MEETING WITH JUBA UN OFFICIALS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  In a meeting February 18 with U.S. Special 
Envoy General Scott Gration, UN officials in Juba reported that 
elections mobilization is underway, food insecurity in the South is 
on the rise, and the need for additional support and focus on 
capacity building in the South is acute.  They highlighted the fact 
that recent press reporting on the Government of Southern Sudan's 
(GOSS) inability to govern could be a self-fulfilling prophesy and 
asked for Gration's support to publicly counter such assumptions. 
Finally, they asked for the U.S. to provide more assistance on the 
security front as well as with development and growth initiatives. 
End Summary. 
 
Elections Mobilizing Underway 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In a February 18 meeting, UN Resident Coordinator David 
Gressly and UN Humanitarian Coordinator Lise Grande told U.S. 
Special Envoy Gration that elections mobilization is underway and 
thus far has progressed without serious incidents.  Gressly said 
that he was especially surprised that there had been no violence 
around the nominations process, although tensions regarding the 
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) independents have not 
abated.  He is most concerned with the time immediately following 
elections and the possible June run-off election for national 
presidency of Sudan. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Grande explained that many of the current SPLM problems 
stem from the ideological split between those that just want to get 
to the referendum and those that want to win the national 
presidential election, and who are focused on democratic change. 
The National Congress Party (NCP) is clearly not comfortable with 
the idea of going to a second round; and if they are pushed to 
this, all bets are off.  Grande suggested that one possibility for 
the NCP is to convince Lam Akol not to run in the south in return 
for the SPLM's withdrawal of Yasir Arman from the national 
election.  Gressly was skeptical about the likelihood of such a 
swap. 
 
Food and Human Security 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Grande reported that this year will be one of the worse 
for food security throughout Southern Sudan.  She told us that the 
UN currently estimates that 4.3 million people will need some food 
assistance at some point in 2010.  She believes the worse period 
may last only two months.  However Grande also observed that 1.8 
million people will be at higher risk and may need food assistance 
for a longer period.  World Food Program (WFP) currently believes 
it will need 200,000 tons of food in 2010.  While the USG has been 
the biggest donor to date, Grande added, she wanted the U.S. to 
pressure other donors to provide support and assistance.  She said 
there will also be a need for additional funding for voluntary 
returns in Southern Sudan. 
 
Concerns Over Governance and Security 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) While security is a valid concern in Southern Sudan and 
the GOSS needs more assistance in order to respond effectively, 
recent press reporting highlighting GOSS' lack of capacity to 
govern itself may be a self full-filling prophesy, Grande noted. 
Gressly pointed out that tribal and community conflict continues 
and that these are legitimate concerns, but should not suggest that 
the GOSS cannot govern itself.  While the police and military need 
additional assistance to respond effectively to internal and 
external threats, the country will not devolve into Somalia style 
conflict in the streets of the capital.  Grande specifically 
pointed to a recent Financial Times article that suggests that the 
south will plunge into chaos if southerners choose separation in 
the referendum next January 2011.  Grande requested that the USG 
publicly counter such assumptions and continue supporting the GOSS 
on the security front to better enable them to prevent, mitigate 
and respond to local violence and conflict. 
 
USG Assistance for Capacity 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In recent months there have been a number of initiatives 
and assessments aimed at capacity building in the GOSS, as well as 
other development initiatives.  Who should pay for much of this 
technical assistance remains unclear, Grande explained.  While IGAD 
countries are willing to send 200 technical advisers to Southern 
Sudan, the focus of their efforts, the source of funding, and the 
 
KHARTOUM 00000296  002 OF 002 
 
 
receptivity of the GOSS are unclear.  Grande asked that the USG 
become more involved in this initiative.  All agreed that there is 
great need of roads and other infrastructure, as well as 
agricultural and farming development.  There is also a need to 
diversify from oil and attract a wider range of investment in 
Southern Sudan.  She acknowledged that much of this assistance and 
investment must come from the World Bank and African Development 
Bank, as the U.S. cannot do it alone. 
WHITEHEAD