VZCZCXRO0272
RR RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0127/01 0531639
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 221639Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0262
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000127 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/22 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KPKO UN SU
SUBJECT: Special Envoy Discusses Election Preparations with DSRG 
Lidder, UN Elections Advisor Kennedy 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Robert E. Whitehead, Charge d'Affaires; REASON: 
1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 20 meeting with Deputy Special 
Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) Jasbir Lidder, 
Special Envoy (SE) Scott Gration said strong United Nations Mission 
in Sudan (UNMIS) leadership is needed to meet current and future 
challenges, including support for the elections, protection of 
civilians and post-2011 arrangements.  Lidder said UNMIS could 
rightly take credit for progress in Comprehensive Peace Agreement 
(CPA) implementation, election preparations, relative peace in 
Abyei, and successful demining in the South; and it is doing more 
to improve protection of civilians and publicize its successes. 
While UNMIS' mandates are acceptable, he continued, UNMIS needs 
more resources to carry them out, as well as clearer understanding 
by donor countries of UNMIS' unique limitations.  UN Elections 
Assistance Division Sudan Director Ray Kennedy and International 
Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) Sudan Director Jerome 
Layraud told the Envoy that National Election Commission (NEC) 
regulations will make it impossible for many designated individuals 
to participate as domestic observers, and that the NEC is 
ill-prepared for a runoff.  A failure to name Southern Sudan and 
Abyei Referendum Commissions before the elections will create major 
challenges for the referendum timetable.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
Lidder: UNMIS Needs Resources, Not Mandate Change 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a February 20 meeting with the Special Envoy, Deputy 
Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) Jasbir 
Lidder described the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) as one 
of the most difficult operations ever undertaken by the United 
Nations given the large territory it covered and the unique 
political environment, including the presence of a second 
peacekeeping mission in country.  A large organization, UNMIS 
interacts with a number of high level leaders with intersecting 
roles, including incoming SRSG Haile Menkarios, UN-African Union 
(AU) Darfur mediator Djibril Bassole, United Nations-African Union 
Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) Joint Special Representative (JSR) 
Ibrahim Gambari, and UN-AU High Level Panel on Sudan Chairman Thabo 
Mbeki, as well as with innumerable local NGO actors.  At the same 
time, UNMIS must be mindful of the sovereignty of the host nation, 
and this combination of all factors which make UNMIS less nimble 
than it otherwise might be.  Despite these complexities, UNMIS can 
be credited, at least in part, for the fact that the Comprehensive 
Peace Agreement (CPA) is on track, that election planning is moving 
forward, that Abyei is more peaceful than it was before the 
Permanent Court of Arbitration decision, and that demining in the 
South has been extremely successful.  Civilian protection is a part 
of the UNMIS mandate, Lidder granted, but each UN specialized 
agency has a different view of what constitutes civilian 
protection.  He said that tribal violence in the South is an 
ongoing backdrop to UNMIS' primary mandate of monitoring the CPA. 
To carry out its civilian protection mandate, UNMIS now has a 
greater field presence, including more temporary forward operating 
bases, and is more active in civil affairs.  At the same time, 
resources are a continuing problem.  UNMIS has asked for fifteen 
additional helicopters to support the elections; only three are 
under contract.  Actionable information is also often lacking. 
UNMIS will conduct more proactive reporting so as to do a better 
job of telling others how it is accomplishing its core mandates, 
Lidder stated, and UNMIS may hold a protection conference as a 
reality check to assure that it is doing all it can.  UNMIS sees 
part of its task as working cooperatively with other entities to 
reach shared goals.  Nonetheless, the complex system that is UNMIS 
has its own constraints and its own dynamic; anyone trying to push 
it beyond its limits may win an individual battle, but lose the 
war. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Special Envoy Gration noted that strong leadership is 
needed if UNMIS is to rise to coming challenges.  It is not enough 
to report on violence, the Special Envoy said; the UN must be able 
to mobilize and pre-empt, with people trained in conflict 
mitigation.  He asked whether Lidder considered the current UNMIS 
configuration a static one, with six out of every ten employees at 
 
KHARTOUM 00000127  002 OF 002 
 
 
base supporting four in the field; or whether he would consider it 
a more robust configuration, with eight out of ten persons in the 
field and two at base in support.  Lidder responded that UN forces 
are supported by civilians in a centralized support unit, which 
means that each commandeer in the field does not control his own 
resources, but rather is subject to a system of checks and 
balances.  The current force of 10,000 could, Lidder noted, be 
reconfigured and reoriented to new roles, but this will take time. 
SE Gration asked Lidder what, if anything, should be adjusted in 
the UNMIS mandate.  Lidder responded that the mandate is adequate, 
but that more resources to carry out existing mandates are needed. 
On post-2011 issues, Lidder noted that the North needs to realize 
that UNMIS will not just disappear following the referendum, but 
will need to remain on the ground to meet continuing challenges, 
but noted that UNMIS focus has already begun to shift to the South. 
 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
Kennedy:  Runoff Likely, NEC Planning Deficient 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C) The Special Envoy also met with Ray Kennedy, UN Elections 
Advisor, and with Jerome Leyraud, Chief of Party International 
Foundation for Election Systems (IFES).  The Envoy asked the 
advisors if the number of international observers was adequate, or 
whether he should press for more.  Kennedy noted that he hoped for 
500 international observers, but that domestic observers are even 
more crucial because they are able to see and hear things that 
international observers cannot.  However, he noted, stringent 
accreditation requirements put in place by the NEC, especially ID 
requirements, may exclude a large number of domestic observers, 
thus weakening the observation effort.  Asked about the likelihood 
of a runoff, both advisors said they believed one would take place, 
and that NEC has not yet done sufficient planning.  The 
international community is pressing NEC to set the date for the 
runoff in June, rather than in May, as set forth in the current 
electoral calendar, the advisors said, to allow adequate time to 
prepare.  The expressed extreme concern about the lack of a 
logistics plan to transport ballots to polling places, and lamented 
the fact that the NEC had not yet provided the data so that UNDP 
can begin to print legislative ballots.  They feared the NEC could 
postpone legislative elections on logistical grounds, and blame the 
international community for not delivering ballots on time, but go 
forward with the executive elections with ballots that are printed 
locally.  All ballots are supposed to be serialized and have 
counterfoils, but security overnight and during counting will 
nonetheless be a challenge, especially where polling stations are 
located outdoors.  If the Southern Sudan Referendum and Abyei 
Referendum Commissions are not named prior to the elections, both 
Kennedy and Leyraud stressed, there will be major challenges to 
holding the referenda in January 2011. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: DSRSG Lidder was the former UNMIS Force Commander 
for two years and knows the realities on the ground as well as 
anyone involved in the South.  We expect him to provide much 
improved leadership to UN efforts over the coming year. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (U) Special Envoy Gration's staff cleared this cable. 
WHITEHEAD