VZCZCXRO9608
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0113/01 0531233
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O R 221233Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0240
INFO DARFUR COLLECTIVE
IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000113 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/22 
TAGS: MOPS PINR KPKO ASEC SU CD
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PLURALISM IS THE REAL END GOAL OF THE APRIL 
ELECTIONS, AEC CHAIR TELLS SE GRATION 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Robert Whitehead, Charge d'Affaires, State, U.S. 
Embassy Khartoum; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Sir Derek Plumbly, the chairman of the Assessment 
and Evaluation Commission (AEC), told U.S. Special Envoy (SE) to 
Sudan General Scott Gration that political developments in Sudan 
have been gathering speed over the past several months, leading to 
a "frenzy of interest" on the ground level in Sudan's political 
process.  The UN needs to comprehensively plan for post-2011, a 
step the south would welcome but may ruffle political feathers in 
the north.  Although it would be naive to hope that a "New Sudan" 
would emerge following the April elections, Plumbly said his hope 
is that greater political pluralism would emerge in both north and 
south.  End summary. 
 
 
 
¶2. (C) As the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) reaches its 
completion next year, Plumbly said that he had noted a "gathering 
in speed" of Sudan's political impetus.  The high degree of 
interest in the upcoming April elections has initiated a national 
discussion of issues related to the CPA, which in turn has led to a 
"frenzy of interest in what's next."  Plumbly said he believed that 
neither north nor south would regret the loss of unity if the 
process would preserve the interests of both sides, especially on 
issues of citizenship, oil revenues and security arrangements. 
Plumbly highlighted the need for Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile 
states to get a "fair deal" over the next several years, in order 
to prevent their return to war as the rest of the bifurcated nation 
moves toward peace.  Plumbly asserted that both the National 
Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement 
(SPLM) see the elections as a two-party exercise, and neither has 
conclusively thought out how to regroup should an alternate 
scenario arise. 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) Following the 2011 referendum for the independence of 
Southern Sudan, Plumbly believes the United Nations will be in the 
best position to develop a strategic and logistic framework for the 
development of the nascent nation.  "The UN needs to start planning 
for 2011 on their own," he said.  "The Government of Southern Sudan 
(GOSS) wants this, but because of sensitivities to the north, they 
can't be too public about it."  Key to any plan for the south's 
future will be the stance of the UN's Department of Peacekeeping 
Operations (DPKO), which would need to take a lead role in 
assessing the security needs in a region riven with arms, tribes, 
and scores yet to be settled.  The international community, in 
turn, needs to collectively monitor and push for resolution on the 
issues that spread across any potential new international border, 
including those issues of citizenship, oil revenues, border 
demarcation and security arrangements.  Plumbly warned that 
emerging priorities in need of international support would carry a 
steep price tag, one which the international donor community would 
have to pay. 
 
 
 
¶4. (C) Although Plumbly remains unconvinced that a "New Sudan" will 
emerge following the April elections, he was optimistic that the 
elections will mark a turning point of some sort. "I hope to see 
greater political pluralism as an end result," Plumbly said.  "They 
can demonstrate that this is a real election, a step in the right 
direction for democracy."  Sudan's neighbors, in turn, play a 
constructive role in encouraging "neighborliness" in supporting the 
resolution of key issues over the next several years.  Former South 
African President Thabo Mbeki, in his role as the head of the 
African Union High Level Implementation Panel on Sudan, can play a 
role in addressing the sour relations among political parties in 
the south.  Plumbly said he saw a need for the heads of the two UN 
peacekeeping missions in Sudan, Haile Menkerios and Ibrahim 
Gambari, to work together as soon as possible, given the limited 
amount of time before next year's referendum.  Plumbly invited SE 
Gration to the first post-election high-level meeting of the AEC, 
to be held the first or second week of May. 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) Comment: Seasoned observers in Sudan often blur the line 
between realism and cynicism, but Plumbly's hope for greater 
political pluralism is a practical goal that both the NCP and SPLM 
should support.  Because both parties see politics as a zero-sum 
 
KHARTOUM 00000113  002 OF 002 
 
 
game, however, it will take a delicate political choreography to 
convince them that the elections are progress towards democracy, 
not merely a validation of their supremacy. End comment. 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) This cable has been cleared by the Office of the U.S. 
Special Envoy to Sudan. 
WHITEHEAD