VZCZCXRO3199
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #0095/01 0561427
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 251426Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0291
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KAMPALA 000095 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/25 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM
SUBJECT: UGANDA: ELECTORAL COMMISSION FALLS FLAT, AGAIN 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Aaron Sampson, Pol/Econ Chief; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) 
party narrowly defeated the ruling National Resistance Movement 
(NRM) in a February 15 by-election marred by mismanagement, rain, 
and a shoot-out involving the Minister of Housing's bodyguard. The 
FDC attributed its victory to superior organization and the 
government's inability to rig the election due to the presence of 
international observers led by the U.S. Mission. The NRM dismissed 
the outcome as a gift to the FDC from the disgruntled NRM member 
who siphoned off critical NRM votes by running as an independent. 
The Electoral Commission once again disenfranchised voters through 
mismanagement of the voter registry and polling stations. Citing 
the U.S. congressional reporting requirement, the Commission 
refused to provide the Mission with information related to the 
Mbale by-election and directed the Mission to route requests for 
election related material via the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. End 
Summary. 
 
 
 
------------------------------------------ 
 
Opposition Holds on to Mbale Seat 
 
 ------------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) The FDC narrowly maintained its parliamentary seat from 
the eastern town of Mbale on February 15, defeating the NRM by less 
than 1,000 votes. The Mbale seat opened in December when FDC member 
Wilfred Kajeke resigned in disgust over the NRM-dominated 
Parliament's failure to tackle government corruption. Kajeke 
accused the NRM of "mortgaging Uganda" and vowed not to return to 
the legislative body as long as the NRM remains in power. Kajeke's 
resignation offered the NRM an opportunity to capture one of the 
FDC's 39 parliamentary seats and embarrass the Chairman of the 
Parliamentary Accounts Committee (PAC), Mbale-native and FDC member 
Nadala Mafabi, who is spearheading Parliament's investigation into 
the massive Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) 
corruption scandal (ref. A). 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Internal squabbles over the NRM's method of selecting a 
candidate to run for Kajeke's seat, however, resulted in one 
official NRM candidate and a second NRM-affiliated independent 
candidate. In the campaign's final days, President Museveni and 
several Ministers travelled to Mbale to convince the NRM 
"independent," Shinyabulo Mutende, to withdraw for the good of the 
party. Accusing the NRM of rigging its own internal primary, 
Mutende refused and garnered just enough votes - 1,199 (12%) - to 
force the NRM's official candidate into second place with 3,875 
(38%) votes. FDC candidate Jack Wamanga Wamai won with 4,776 (47%) 
votes. The election's participation rate was approximately 25%. 
 
 
 
----------------------------------- 
 
Electoral Commission Follies 
 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) With just 72 polling stations all located within the 
town's city limits, the Mbale election should have been less 
complicated and cheaper than the January 19 Budiope by-election 
which involved 141 polling stations spread across an isolated and 
rural part of central Uganda (ref. B). However, as in that race, 
the Electoral Commission again finalized the voter registry only 
two days before election day, depriving opposition parties and 
voters of the ability to obtain copies of the registry or 
scrutinize its contents. The Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) party, 
which purchased an out-of-date voter registry from the Commission 
prior to the election, did not receive an accurate copy until 11pm 
on election eve. Several FDC poll watchers reported discrepancies 
between unofficial registries sold to the FDC and official 
registries issued to poll workers on election day. Observers 
recorded numerous instances where poll workers turned away voters 
with voter cards because their name failed to appear on voter 
registries. 
 
KAMPALA 00000095  002 OF 004 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Commission's inexplicable failure to alphabetize the 
voter registry resulted in major delays and confusion. One 
exasperated polling officer gave up trying to locate voter names on 
his registry, and resorted instead to reading the names of several 
hundred registered voters aloud before an increasingly frustrated 
crowd of potential voters (a security officer later fired into the 
air in front of this polling station to disperse angry crowds). 
Opposition parties also complained that the Commission neglected to 
invite opposition representatives to a Commission-funded January 13 
training for poll workers, police, and NRM party delegates; that 
some local government officials were running various polling 
stations; that the Commission failed to provide opposition parties 
with sample ballots in advance of election day, resulting in 
ballots that depicted the FDC's skeleton key logo in black and 
white while the NRM's school bus logo appeared in color; and that 
the Commission's opaque reorganization of several polling stations 
disenfranchised voters. Election observers confirmed most, if not 
all, of these allegations. 
 
 
 
 -------------------------------------------- 
 
And Then There Was the Shoot-Out 
 
 ------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) In the days before the election, President Museveni and 
several Ministers travelled to Mbale to drum up support for the 
official NRM candidate and shame the rogue NRM independent 
candidate Mutende into withdrawing from the race. In response, 
Mutende accused the government of harassing and intimidating his 
supporters, and police arrested one Mutende booster for allegedly 
threatening supporters of the official NRM candidate with a gun. 
Meanwhile, FDC candidate Wamanga accused the government of 
harassing his supporters after police arrested 24 individuals on 
February 9, allegedly for refusing to close their shops during a 
campaign visit by Housing Minister Michael Werikhe. Wamanga also 
complained that Mbale's Resident District Commissioner (RDC) and 
District Internal Security Officer (DISO) hand picked presiding 
officers at certain polling stations to tilt the election in the 
NRM's favor. 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) On election day, opposition leaders accused the government 
of using the security forces to frighten voters and depress 
turnout. Several opposition leaders also accused Presidency 
Minister Beatrice Wabudeya and Housing Minister Werikhe of using 
their government vehicles and armed security details to intimidate 
voters at polling stations by threatening to record the names of 
those voting against the NRM. U.S. Mission observers did not see 
Ministers Wabudeya and Werikhe on election day, and were unable to 
substantiate these claims. However, local NGO observers recorded 
one instance of an unnamed NRM official with armed guards 
threatening poll workers. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) At 2pm, Minister Werikhe's vehicle became entangled with a 
vehicle belonging to the wife of NRM independent candidate Mutende 
in front of a particularly disorganized and tense cluster of 
polling stations in downtown Mbale. According to reliable 
eyewitness accounts, Werikhe's bodyguard descended from the 
Minister's vehicle and shot out the tires of Mutende's car, 
wounding one member of Mutende's entourage in the foot. In the 
ensuing chaos, Werikhe fled to the Mbale police station. Werikhe 
later escaped the mob assembled outside the police station by 
exiting through a back door. After the incident, a police spokesman 
told international observers that Werikhe's bodyguard fired warning 
shots into the air, and that the wounded individual's foot was 
punctured by a "sharp object." Police later said Werikhe ordered 
his bodyguard to fire in self defense. Werikhe claimed he never 
gave the order to fire, and that the bodyguard fired into the air. 
 
 
 
 --------------------- 
 
Fraud Deterrents 
 
 --------------------- 
 
KAMPALA 00000095  003 OF 004 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Applying lessons learned from the January 19 Budiope 
by-election, where more than 20% of polling stations carried by the 
NRM reported impossibly inflated participation rates, the FDC 
paired one local poll watcher with one trusted party operative at 
each of Mbale's 72 polling stations to prevent NRM payoffs of FDC 
poll workers. A contingent of approximately 20 international and 
local observers served as an additional check, likely visiting each 
polling station at least once on election day. In general, poll 
workers and party delegates appeared dedicated and cheerful despite 
less than ideal circumstances, organizational problems, and 
sporadic rain. However, there were isolated incidents of fraud and 
malfeasance. 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) For instance, the Electoral Commission re-named and 
re-located one polling station for unexplained reasons just days 
before the election. When U.S. observers finally located this 
station at 11:30 am, participation rates were already nearly triple 
the average turnout rates at other polling stations, even though no 
one in Mbale seemed to be aware of this polling station's location. 
This was the only station where we observed newly registered voters 
with registration slips issued in January 2010, and the Director of 
the European-funded $20m Deepening Democracy Project later noted 
that the Commission was unable to explain the unusual addition of 
100 new voters to this polling station. Turnout at this station 
mysteriously dropped to near zero after our arrival, and final 
results revealed this station as a significant outlier, with a 
remarkable 89% of votes cast in favor of the NRM. 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) The atmosphere at the cluster of polling stations where 
the Werikhe shooting occurred was particularly tense. An opposition 
poll watcher at one of these stations told the Mission that the 
station's presiding officer tried to pressure fellow poll workers 
to sign the final tally sheet in the morning, before voting even 
began. A subsequent procedural "error" by a presiding officer at a 
separate station led the Electoral Commission to void results from 
the entire polling station. A particularly aggressive presiding 
officer at a third polling station repeatedly challenged observers 
to show proof of identification and accreditation. A procedural 
"error" by this presiding officer later led the Commission to also 
void all ballots from this station. 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) Failures by presiding officers to properly complete tally 
sheets or seal results envelopes resulted in the disqualification 
of results from four polling stations. The FDC claimed its 
candidate carried each of these stations, and accused presiding 
officers and the Electoral Commission of conspiring to 
disenfranchise opposition voters. On February 21, FDC spokesman 
Wafula Oguttu attributed his party's narrow victory to the 
vigilance of FDC poll watchers, the U.S. congressional directive to 
monitor preparations for the February 2011 presidential election, 
and the presence of foreign observers. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
Electoral Commission: No Info for You 
 
 --------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) Prior to the Mbale election, the Commission's Secretary 
Sam Rwakoojo repeatedly refused to release budget information for 
the Mbale by-election or the 2011 general elections to the U.S. 
Mission. Rwakoojo also refused to provide the Mission with copies 
of the final results for Mbale, first instructing the Mission to 
send a request in writing, and then responding with a February 18 
letter instructing the Mission to channel all requests for 
election-related information via the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 
Rwakoojo told PolOff that the Commission believes the Foreign 
Ministry should be aware of any information shared with the U.S. 
Mission due to the congressional reporting requirement. As of 
February 24, Rwakoojo had also refused to share the Mbale results 
and budget information with European donor partners. 
 
KAMPALA 00000095  004 OF 004 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
----------- 
 
 Comment: Electoral Commission Shoots Itself in the Foot, Again 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
----------- 
 
 
 
 ¶14. (C) The atmosphere in Mbale was particularly tense.  In the 
evening after voting ended, security forces twice fired into the 
air to disperse crowds gathered around the Electoral Commission's 
tallying center in downtown Mbale.  The Commission's penchant for 
last minute changes to the voter registry once again undermined an 
election's credibility. These opaque changes needlessly raised the 
suspicions of opposition parties and disenfranchised voters.  U.S, 
U.K., and Dutch observers were disappointed by the Commission's 
passive response to legitimate allegations of voter intimidation 
and electoral malfeasance on election day, as well as the clearly 
duplicitous claims by government officials that Minister Werikhe's 
body guard shot only into the air and that the wounded individual 
was injured not by a bullet but by a sharp object. 
 
 
 
¶15. (C) In a February 23 editorial entitled "Voter Registers: Are 
the EC and NRM Bedfellows?", the FDC's parliamentary opposition 
leader Morris Ogenga Latigo observed that the Commission can 
disenfranchise more than 700,000 voters by merely striking - or 
adding - 20 to 50 voters at each of Uganda's 20,000 polling 
stations. The Budiope and Mbale by-elections suggest that minor 
alterations at the micro level are already underway. FDC spokesman 
Oguttu's assessment of the Mbale contest is probably correct: the 
vigilance of FDC poll watchers and presence of international 
observers likely prevented additional and more widespread fraud. 
Uganda's next parliamentary by-election is in March in Kabale along 
Uganda's border with Rwanda. An additional by-election will also 
occur in Arua in northern Uganda to replace a parliamentarian who 
died unexpectedly of natural causes on February 21. 
HOOVER