VZCZCXRO1245
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #0085/01 0541930
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 231930Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0264
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000085 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/23 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANT OLARA OTUNNU'S STRATEGY FOR 
2011 
 
REF: 09 KAMPALA 1411; 10 KAMPALA 69; 10 KAMPALA 73 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Aaron Sampson, Pol/Econ Chief; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: On February 16, presidential hopeful and former UN 
Under Secretary Olara Otunnu characterized his December 21 auto 
accident with the Presidential Guard Brigade as an assassination 
attempt, and said the U.S. congressional reporting requirement for 
Uganda's election is a core component of his strategy to mobilize 
voters against President Museveni in 2011. Otunnu, speaking on the 
margins of a disorganized by-election in the eastern town of Mbale 
in which his party captured only 1% of the vote (septel), said the 
2011 election presents a final window of opportunity for Uganda, 
that there is "no way" the current Electoral Commission will 
preside over the 2011 elections, and that the U.S. should use its 
response to Uganda's draft anti-homosexuality bill as a blueprint 
for pressuring Museveni to respect democratic norms. End Summary. 
 
 
 
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Otunnu: AmCit Foiled Assassination Attempt 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
 
 
 ¶2. (C) Otunnu said his December 21 accident with a Presidential 
Guard Brigade (PGB) convoy (ref. A) was "a targeted operation, 
meant to assassinate," and attributed his survival to the 
unexpected presence of an American film maker in his car. Otunnu 
alleged that the soldiers who surrounded him with guns drawn after 
forcing his car from the road would have fired had the American not 
been present. Otunnu dismissed police claims that an investigation 
into the incident in ongoing, stating that police lack the 
authority to investigate the PGB, and that the Ugandan government 
will not pursue the matter. Otunnu claimed unnamed advisors to 
President Museveni have admitted that the accident was planned to 
intimidate or harm Otunnu in retaliation for his ability to 
mobilize international opinion against Museveni.  Other Embassy 
sources have claimed the incident was indeed harassment but nobody 
else thinks it was an attempt to kill Otunnu. 
 
 
 
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 Otunnu's 2011 Campaign Playbook 
 
 ------------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) Describing himself as an "American carpetbagger" more at 
home in the U.S. than Uganda, Otunnu said he lobbied Washington 
contacts to include a reporting requirement on the 2011 elections 
in the 2010 Foreign Appropriations Act (ref. B), and that the 
congressional directive is a core component of his electoral 
strategy. He said his campaign theme is "unity", and that the 
reporting requirement sends a message of unity and hope to Ugandans 
by confirming that the U.S. supports free and fair democratic 
processes and is not in "cahoots" with Museveni. Otunnu claimed 
crowds in rural Uganda respond with shock and applause when he 
relates U.S. interest in Ugandan democracy, and that his stump 
speech exhorts voters to join with the U.S. and international 
donors to stand up for democracy. Referencing President Obama's 
Accra speech, Otunnu said change in Uganda depends on two factors: 
international support for free and fair elections, and everyday 
Ugandans' willingness to take control of their own future. 
 
 
 
 ¶4. (C) Otunnu said the congressional directive is particularly bad 
news for Museveni because it inspires Ugandan voters to speak out 
against the President, and undermines Museveni's image as a leader 
with broad international support. Otunnu said Museveni cultivates 
this image as a means of tamping down domestic dissent, and that 
Museveni is extremely concerned about the directive, but still 
trying to work out whether the U.S. is serious about the 2011 
electoral process. Echoing recent statements by several civil 
society leaders (ref. C), Otunnu said the international community's 
aggressive response to the anti-homosexuality bill provides a 
blueprint for pressuring Museveni to abide by democratic norms, and 
that if the U.S. shows it is serious about free and fair elections, 
 
KAMPALA 00000085  002 OF 002 
 
 
then Museveni will fall in line. 
 
 
 
-------------------- 
 
The Long-shot 
 
 ------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) Otunnu has not yet officially announced his candidacy for 
the 2011 presidential election. He said he intended to make an 
announcement during the February 16 parliamentary by-election in 
Mbale, but scrapped the idea at the last moment to avoid 
pre-empting the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) party's internal 
nomination process. The UPC is fractured, with nine candidates 
vying for the party's presidential nomination, including Jimmy 
Akena, the son of former UPC leader and Ugandan President Milton 
Obote. These fissures have weakened the party, and even with 
Otunnu's presence on by-election day in Mbale, the UPC managed to 
capture only 1% of the vote. Otunnu expressed confidence that he 
will win the UPC's presidential nomination, provided the UPC can 
pull itself together long enough to resolve a court battle between 
rival factions and scrounge money needed to hold a party delegates 
conference. 
 
 
 
 ----------------------------------------- 
 
Opposition Coalition Calculations 
 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
 ¶6. (C) Otunnu said he strongly supports the opposition Inter-Party 
Cooperation (IPC) coalition's desire for a single opposition 
candidate, and that defeating Museveni is more important than 
internal rivalries over who wins the IPC's endorsement. NOTE: The 
frontrunner for the IPC's nomination is Forum for Democratic Change 
(FDC) president Kizza Besigye. END NOTE.  Ottunu said "there is no 
way" the current Electoral Commission will preside over the 2011 
elections, and that every day the "Commission puts another nail in 
its coffin." He said the entire structure of the Commission is 
compromised, and a "clean sweep" of the entire Commission is 
required. He declined to speculate on what the IPC will do if the 
Commission remains unchanged, saying only that the current 
Commission is unacceptable and that the IPC is reviewing potential 
responses. 
 
 
 
¶7. (C) Asked for his predictions for 2011, Otunnu said Museveni has 
always assumed that Ugandans will not challenge him, but that he 
may be in for a surprise. Otunnu said there are deep and dangerous 
levels of bitterness in Uganda, both at the grassroots and 
political levels, directed at the political/military class over 
which Museveni presides and also, to a lesser extent, at ethnic 
westerners who many perceive as the main beneficiaries of the 
Museveni regime. "This is the last window this country has to 
prevent something really nasty in 2011," said Otunnu. "If 2011 is 
aborted in terms of free and fair elections, God help us." 
 
 
 
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Comment: An International Candidate 
 
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¶8. (C) After 24 years of exile abroad, Otunnu has little support in 
Uganda. His power as an opposition figure is derived not from 
internal popularity but from his international network. By 
encouraging the U.S. and other donors to take a critical view of 
Uganda's electoral processes, Otunnu has delivered one half of his 
equation for unseating Museveni in 2011. The other component - 
convincing Ugandan voters to oppose Museveni en masse on election 
day - will likely fall to an opposition candidate with a serious 
domestic following, such as the FDC's Kizza Besigye. 
LANIER