VZCZCXRO0914
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #0083/01 0541339
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 231338Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0262
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/23 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: AMBASSADOR CALLS ON KING OF BUGANDA 
 
REF: 10 KAMPALA 69; 09 KAMPALA 1044 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Tim Manarin, Political Officer; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The leader of Uganda's largest and most powerful 
ethnic group told the Ambassador on February 18 that Uganda is 
slipping toward instability. Buganda King Ronald Mutebi II said he 
is apprehensive about the February 2011 election, and accused 
President Museveni of trying to dismantle the Buganda Kingdom. The 
King and his advisors said there are no ongoing negotiations with 
the government to defuse tensions stemming from the deadly 
September 2009 riots, and accused Museveni of "persecuting" Buganda 
in retaliation for the Kingdom's demand for federalism. End 
Summary. 
 
 
 
 --------------------------------------------- --- 
 
King Warns of Democratic Backsliding 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
 
 
¶2. (C) King Mutebi met Ambassador Lanier and PolOff at the King's 
palace on Banda hill in Kampala. Also present were Buganda's Prime 
Minister John Baptist Walusimbi, Attorney General Apollo Makubuya, 
and Deputy Attorney General David Mpanga. The King voiced concern 
for Uganda's democratic backsliding and urged vigilance to avert 
what he described as "our worst fears." When the Ambassador asked 
him to elaborate, Mutebi said public support for Museveni is 
declining and that Museveni has failed to strengthen the 
institutions needed to prevent a return to Uganda's violent past. 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) Mutebi described Museveni's refusal to reform the Electoral 
Commission as a recipe for disaster. The King also noted rising 
ethnic tensions, and said these tensions were not present a few 
years ago. Mutebi said there is a widely held perception that the 
U.S. has given Museveni a pass on democracy in return for Uganda's 
troop contributions to the African Union Mission to Somalia. He 
warned that the U.S. may be inadvertently promoting instability by 
ignoring Museveni's democratic failings. Attorney General Makubuya 
added that many Ugandans wonder why the U.S. took a tough line with 
Kenya on democracy but not Uganda. In response, Ambassador Lanier 
said the building of democracy is the highest priority for the U.S. 
in Uganda, that the U.S. regards Uganda as one of our closest 
partners in the region, that we consistently stress the importance 
of holding peaceful and democratic elections during discussions 
with Ugandan leaders, and noted the recent congressional reporting 
requirement for the 2011 elections (ref. A). 
 
 
 
------------------------------------------- 
 
Buganda Has No Faith in Museveni 
 
------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (C) With little progress since the September 2009 riots that 
left as many as 27 people dead (ref. B), Mutebi said that Buganda 
was undergoing a kind of "persecution" by the state and emphasized 
that he was not using the word lightly. He complained that the 
central government has shown no good will toward Buganda, cannot be 
trusted, and that no negotiations with Museveni are ongoing. 
Buganda Prime Minister Walusimbi noted that the Kingdom's dispute 
goes well beyond the riots and the closure of CBS radio to include 
issues of land and civic rights. Walusimbi accused Museveni of 
failing to honor a personal promise in April 2009 to return a 
particular piece of land to the Kingdom. 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) Walusimbi described the closure of CBS radio as the latest 
step in Museveni's plan to break Buganda's back, and Kingdom of 
Buganda Attorney General Makubuya complained that the Ugandan 
government responded to a lawsuit by CBS's 100 employees for 
wrongful loss of employment with a countersuit seeking damages for 
the loss of life and property incurred during the September riots. 
Makubuya said Museveni precipitated the riots by illegally blocking 
Prime Minister Walusimibi from visiting Kayunga district in 
 
KAMPALA 00000083  002 OF 002 
 
 
September, and said Buganda has little hope of legal redress due to 
the steady erosion of the judiciary's independence. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
Federalism and the Buganda Voting Bloc 
 
 --------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (C) When the Ambassador asked why Museveni regards the Kingdom 
as a threat, Mutebi said the ruling National Resistance Movement 
(NRM) party knows Buganda represents Uganda's largest voting bloc, 
but that the NRM views Buganda demands for federalism as 
unacceptable. Mutebi characterized the rapid proliferation of 
administrative districts as an attempt by Museveni to fracture and 
weaken larger groupings like Buganda, and scoffed at government 
claims that redistricting will bring services closer to the people, 
arguing instead that new districts have only increased patronage 
jobs and reduced funds trickling down to people at the grassroots. 
 
 
 
¶7. (C) Kingdom leaders agreed that Museveni has delivered security 
and improved economic growth during more than 20 years in power, 
but insisted that a return to a federal system like the one that 
existed until 1966 is the only way to fully restore peace and 
stability in Uganda. Mubebi stressed that Buganda is not advocating 
for secession from Uganda, but rather a federal system where the 
national government retains certain overarching responsibilities 
like defense, foreign affairs, and monetary policy-making. The 
Prime Minister and Attorney General said that they envision a 
federal Buganda government as a constitutional monarchy led by a 
democratically elected parliament. 
 
 
 
¶8. (C) Mutebi noted that the Odoki Commission in the mid-1990s 
found that 65 percent of all Ugandans support federalism, and said 
the Kingdom made some progress toward convincing non-ethnic Baganda 
of federalism's value during a December 2009 conference. He said 
Buganda has always welcomed and integrated non-Baganda so there 
should be no fear that a Buganda government would impinge on the 
rights of other ethnicities living in the kingdom, and added that 
western Uganda's Bunyoro Kingdom, which wants to benefit from 
recent oil discoveries, is becoming a convert to federalism. 
 
 
 
 ------------ ------------------- 
 
Comment: Risks for 2011 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (C) Raised and educated in Britain, Mutebi radiates an air of 
British royalty. Since the King's infrequent public statements are 
generally confined to terse, non-political messages, this meeting 
offered a rare glimpse of the King's personal viewpoints. Buganda's 
relationship with Museveni and Uganda's political situation is not 
encouraging, as both Buganda and Museveni appear to be engaged in a 
high stakes game of chicken, with Buganda refusing to dial back 
demands for federalism and Museveni determined to chip away at the 
Kingdom's authority. The standoff has increased the King's popular 
support among ethnic Baganda - as evidenced by the notable rise in 
portraits of Buganda royalty being sold by street vendors and 
displayed in car windows throughout central Uganda. Meanwhile, it 
will be difficult for Museveni to win central Uganda in 2011 
without the King in his corner, and Museveni will be taking a 
calculated political risk by running for re-election without 
Buganda's support. Continued animosity between the King and the 
President, and the subsequent failure to defuse tensions stemming 
from the deadly September riots, raise the odds for conflict during 
the presidential election in February 2011. 
LANIER