VZCZCXRO1382
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #0067/01 0421322
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 111322Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0217
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 000067 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/11 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: BY-ELECTION GOES FROM SUCCESS TO SUSPECT 
 
REF: 09 KAMPALA 01278; 09 KAMPALA 01349 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Aaron Sampson, Pol/Econ Chief; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: A January 25 by-election in central Uganda 
underscored concerns about the voter registry and the transparency 
of polling results in advance of the February 2011 presidential 
election. Local media and observers described turn out as low, and 
the Electoral Commission uncovered one instance of ballot stuffing. 
Our own review of election results cast suspicion over returns from 
nearly one fifth of Budiope's 140 polling stations. While the 
apparent fraud may not have affected the outcome in favor of the 
ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate, similar 
practices could impact the outcome of a competitive and contentious 
presidential election in February 2011.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
------------------------- 
 
Budiope By-Election 
 
-------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Citizens north of Jinja in central Uganda's Budiope 
sub-county voted on January 25 to elect a new Member of Parliament 
following the death of Budiope's former MP in a vehicle accident. 
Three EmbOffs joined with European Union colleagues and the 
International Republican Institute to field a small contingent of 
election observers.  Budiope is a rural area without any paved 
roads or towns. EmbOffs visited polling places in village market 
areas, fields, school yards, and private compounds. All polling 
stations visited were outdoors and open to the elements. The NRM 
candidate won with 23,457 votes (75.6%). The opposition Forum for 
Democratic Change (FDC) candidate finished a distant second with 
only 6,210 votes (20%). Official turnout was 51%. The Electoral 
Commission spent approximately $34,000 (or $0.53 per registered 
voter) to organize the election. The Chairman of the Electoral 
Commission and three Commissioners were in Budiope to observe the 
exercise. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) The campaign period was peaceful and all materials seemed 
to be in place the evening before the vote. On election morning, 
several polling stations opened hours late due to tardy poll 
workers and/or lack of voters as Ugandan law requires a specific 
number of voters to witness the opening of each polling station. 
Few voters seemed to have voter cards, but voter registries include 
photographs and those without cards can vote provided they match 
the picture in the registry and someone at the polling station 
vouches for their identity. The Electoral Commission voided results 
from one polling station where the number of ballots exceeded the 
number of voters. Three poll workers were arrested, charged with 
electoral malpractice, and released on bail. 
 
 
 
¶4. (C)  Election day appeared clam and moderately well organized, 
although opposition leaders alleged intimidation and rigging. 
EmbOffs observed riot police, armed with weapons and tear gas 
grenades, in areas highlighted by the Commission as potential flash 
points. At one polling station riot police were leaning against the 
string demarcating a polling station when EmbOffs arrived. The 
police immediately melted away, but opposition party delegates and 
others complained that the police had been deployed the night 
before to depress local turnout and intimidate villagers. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
Voter Registry Problems - Missing Voters 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) On election day, the FDC announced that voter registries 
sold to the FDC by the Electoral Commission on January 21 contained 
approximately 2,800 more names than the official registries 
distributed by the Commission to poll workers on January 22, and 
accused the Commission of surreptitiously deleting the names of FDC 
supporters. Observers confirmed that voter registries issued to the 
 
KAMPALA 00000067  002 OF 003 
 
 
FDC differed from those issued to poll workers, but the deletions 
appeared to be more a function of the Electoral Commission's 
disorganization than a concerted plot to disenfranchise opposition 
voters. According to the Electoral Commission, the actual voter 
register was not finalized until January 23 and deletions in the 
days preceding the election involved the removal of deceased voters 
and those no longer living in Budiope sub-county. The Commission 
defended the registry "cleaning" process, stating that all legal 
guidelines and requirements were followed. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
Suspect Participation Rates 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Local newspapers, observers, and the Electoral Commission 
all reported low voter turnout. The Director of the European 
Union's $20m Deepening Democracy Project (DDP) noted numerous 
factors that depressed participation rates, including traditional 
disinterest in by-elections, a lackluster campaign period, a race 
regarded by many as a foregone conclusion in favor of the NRM, and 
the fact that the by-election winner must stand for re-election 
again next year. Official numbers placed the participation rate at 
51%, which is remarkably good for a low profile by-election in a 
rural constituency. An analysis of participation rates by polling 
station, however, reveals that nearly 20% of Budiope's 140 polling 
stations reported turnout rates in excess of 88%, with several 
stations carried by the NRM recording 99% or 100% participation. 
Average turnout at the 29 stations won by the FDC was 38%. 
 
 
 
 --------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
No Answers From Electoral Commission 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) The U.S. Mission shared its assessment of the Budiope 
election with Electoral Commission's Secretary, Sam Rwakoojo, on 
February 8. We noted that while the Commission's last minute 
changes to the voter rolls did not appear to disenfranchise 
specific voters, the unfortunate timing raised suspicions that 
could have been avoided had the Commission shared the final list 
with all interested stakeholders. In response to questions about 
the surprisingly high participation rates at some polling stations, 
Rwakoojo said a high turnout for a presidential election would 
likely not exceed 70%, but claimed participation rates of 90 to 
100% for an unheralded by-election in Budiope are not cause for 
concern. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Despite advance assurances from the Electoral Commission 
that Rwakoojo would provide us with an updated budget for the 2011 
elections, Rwakoojo said the Commission is still revising its 
budget for 2010 and 2011. In 2009, the Commission requested $98 
million for election-related activities in 2010 and 2011. This is 
almost double what the Commission spent for elections in 2006. 
According to the DDP, the Commission spent $4.30 per registered 
voter in 2006 but is on track to spend $8.60 per voter in 2011 
(ref. A). Rwakoojo said the Commission has revised its budget 
downward by approximately $3.5 million by cancelling and scaling 
back planned activities that can no longer be implemented before 
2011, but said the budget could go back up as the Commission is 
still working on final calculations. The Commission has so far 
received one third of its budget request, or 61 billion shillings 
($30 million), from the Ugandan government. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Rwakoojo was unable to provide an updated roadmap for the 
2011 election cycle. He claimed the Commission completed the field 
component of the polling station re-organization exercise per the 
roadmap's February 1 date, and said opposition parties participated 
in this process. Two FDC parliamentarians, however, told the 
Mission on February 8 that they were not aware of any attempt to 
reorganize polling stations in their constituencies and were not in 
 
KAMPALA 00000067  003 OF 003 
 
 
contact with the Electoral Commission. 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Rwakoojo was also unable to provide additional 
information on the timetable for cleaning the voter registry, which 
along with the reorganization of polling stations is one of the 
election's most contentious issues. Rwakoojo said procurement 
difficulties delayed the registry clean-up. In November, the Public 
Procurement and Disposal of Public Assets Authority (PPDA) canceled 
a $15m tender issued by the Electoral Commission for a voter 
registration and biometric ID system due to irregularities in the 
bidding process and complaints that the proposed registration 
program would target only urban voters who traditionally support 
opposition parties (ref.B). Rwakoojo said the Commission is 
determined to move ahead with the procurement, despite the fact 
that it will consume nearly half the government's current allotment 
to the Commission. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
Comment: One By-Election, Two Lessons 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) A transparent voter register is critical to the success 
of the 2011 election. The Electoral Commission did itself no favors 
by revising the registry just days before election day and failing 
to notify the FDC. On February 9, the FDC called on the Electoral 
Commission to post the registry to the internet and arrange for 
on-line registration of voters. On-line voter registration in 
Uganda, where few voters have access to the internet and many have 
no electricity, is impractical. Posting the entire registry on 
line, however, would increase transparency, get the Commission out 
of the business of selling the registry by the page to 
stakeholders, and enable political parties to monitor changes to 
the electoral list when they occur.  On February 11, the local 
National Democratic Institute (NDI) representative estimated that 
posting the registry to the internet with a built-in search engine 
would cost approximately $25,000 and not pose any serious 
technological difficulties. 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) The Commission should also set a cut off date for 
freezing changes to the registry prior to election day, and provide 
a second copy of the registry to post in front of polling stations 
on election day to reduce voter confusion and allow voters to 
quickly ascertain - without standing in line for hours - whether 
they are lined up in front of the correct polling station. 
 
 
 
¶13. (C) The inflated participation rates suggest scattered 
collusion between poll workers and delegates  from opposition 
parties. On February 8, two FDC parliamentarians admitted that 
party poll watchers are not well compensated and that some in rural 
poverty-stricken areas like Budiope are tempted to accept small pay 
offs to look the other way. Although this collusion did not impact 
the lopsided Budiope result, it could have a destabilizing effect 
should the 2011 presidential election be close and competitive. 
LANIER