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DE RUEHBUL #0673/01 0541349
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O 231349Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5820
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000673 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM, INR/B 
STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
USFOR-A FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR KDEM MOPS CAN AF PK
SUBJECT: KANDAHAR'S POWERBROKER: GUL AGHA SHIRZAI: TEEING 
UP THE ENDGAME IN THE SOUTH? 
 
Classified By: Interagency Provincial Affairs Deputy Director Hoyt Yee 
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (S) Summary. Kandahar uber-powerbrokers Gul Agha Shirzai 
and Ahmed Wali Karzai (AWK) teamed up February 16-17 for an 
unprecedented show of political togetherness in Kandahar City 
(KC) to showcase plans for a southern Afghanistan regional 
peace and reconciliation jirga.  Shirzai told the Kandahar 
PRT (KPRT) that his proposal involves: 1) an "active ISAF 
military posture" that keeps up the pressure on the Taliban; 
and 2) international community financial resources.  Shirzai 
critiqued current Kandahar Governor Weesa's performance and 
qualifications in a meeting with the PRT, calling for a 
strong, dynamic governor who has a jihadi background and is 
close the tribes.  Despite the remarkable joint appearances 
of Shirzai and AWK, Shirzai later hedged on whether AWK is 
fully on board with the peace jirga, and a close aide to AWK 
hinted that AWK is not jumping at the proposal for now, 
anyway.  Both camps are probably thinking endgame tactics for 
the war in the South, with Kandahar as the prize.  Whatever 
the motivations of both men, if the proposal is serious, 
Shirzai and AWK might be successful in reconciling 
significant Taliban in the south -- especially if they 
decided to work reintegration and reconciliation together. 
End Summary. 
 
Peace and Reconciliation Jirga South 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (S) Nangahar Governor (and Kandahar powerbroker) Shirzai 
came to Kandahar City (KC) on February 16-17 to shop his 
concept for a Peace and Reconciliation Jirga on the model of 
a provincial version used in Shinwar Valley in Nangahar. 
Last July, the Shinwaris organized to keep insurgents out, 
encourage reconciliation among those open to it and to 
attract reconstruction projects from the PRT in Jalalabad. 
During a two hour meeting at the PRT on February 17, Shirzai 
told the PRT that after some initial hesitation (NFI) he got 
behind the project.  The ten-man Nangahar delegation that 
Shirzai brought with him to KPRT told a story of success, 
including defending their territory against insurgents during 
the elections and seeing the reconciliation of "hundreds" of 
Taliban. 
 
¶3. (S) After hosting a "feast" for Shirzai in Kandahar City 
on February 16, AWK appeared February 17 with him at a shura 
attended by about 1500 people at the Governor's compound. 
(Note:  Governor Weesa was in Kabul during the event and told 
KPRT that he knew nothing of the shura held at his residence 
in his absence. End Note)  Shirzai proposed to the shura that 
key leaders convene a Peace and Reconciliation Jirga in 
Kandahar that would be joined by delegations from Helmand, 
Zabul and Uruzgan provinces to form a South Regional Peace 
and Reconciliation Jirga. 
 
¶4. (S) At the shura, Shirza said that based on the Nangahar 
model, the jirga would include a militia-like defense 
component (best linked to the Afghan National Border Police 
(ANBP), Shirzai improbably said) that would also be empowered 
to arrest Taliban members or supporters who would, in turn, 
be subject to AFN 1 million (approximately USD 20,000) fines, 
having their homes burned down and internal exile for 
collaboration.  The jirga would be empowered to vet all 
persons arrested by the Afghan National Security Forces 
(ANSF) in order to make its own determination about who 
should be prosecuted and who should be let go.  With regard 
to reconciliation, each tribe would process its own people 
with the international community, underwriting both the costs 
of the jirga itself and the reconciliation process. 
According to Shirzai, this is the way to win the war in the 
south "without bullets -- only money." 
 
Criticizing Weesa 
----------------- 
 
¶5. (S) Current Kandahar Governor Tooryalai Weesa (who was not 
present) received scathing criticism from Shirzai who said 
that Weesa is "weak" and isolated to the point of "being in 
prison" in his own offices.  Weesa has no tribal shura 
operating with him in the province and no tribal roots of his 
own, Shirzai said.  In fact, Shirzai added, Weesa's "door is 
closed to the tribes" and he has been foot-dragging on the 
establishment of a tribal shura.  The only supporting 
political body operating in the province, Shirzai said, is 
the Provincial Council (chaired by AWK) with which Shirzai 
said he had "friendly relations."  Shirzai repeatedly 
contrasted his own "dynamic," "strong," "jihadi," "tribal" 
leadership style to that of Weesa.  In response to the PRT's 
 
KABUL 00000673  002 OF 002 
 
 
question of whether he would consider coming back to 
Kandahar, Shirzai demurred, coyly citing much work he has to 
do in Nangahar. 
 
International Community Role 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (S) Shirzai informed KPRT, which was in listening mode, 
that the international community role in support of the Peace 
and Reconciliation Jirga would be to pay "salaries and 
expenses" of jirga members, underwrite the larger 
reconciliation effort nationally and keep the pressure on the 
Taliban militarily.  Under these conditions, Shirzai said, 
the tribal leadership could vet and integrate its own 
"dissatisfied brothers," while punishing or exiling the 
hardcore.  Shirzai portrayed himself as without equal in the 
country in dealing with tribes and tribal dynamics. 
(Comment: Given Shirzai's relatively weaker political 
position vis-a-vis the Karzai family in the GIRoA/Kabul 
context, it is no surprise that he might prefer to take them 
on from a tribal/provincial angle of approach. End Comment.) 
 
 
Separate Meeting with Haji Agha Lalai Dastegeeri 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶7. (S) In a February 18 meeting with KPRT,  AWK Provincial 
Council Deputy Dastegeeri was open but cool to the Peace and 
Reconciliation Jirga proposal.  There had been more than a 
dozen attempts over the past few years to convene some type 
of reconciliation jirga, and none had been successful, he 
said.  He said that if both AWK and Gul Agha Shirzai truly 
committed to the concept of a jirga in the South; and if 
Kabul supported the idea; and if the international community 
agreed to underwrite it, it was worth doing.  To the question 
regarding Shirzai's motives for proposing the jirga now, 
Dastegeeri speculated that either he was "sent by Kabul" 
(NFI) to assess the prospects or perhaps he was attempting to 
re-establish his political base in Kandahar. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (S) KPRT has heard a couple different versions of the 
Nangahar Peace and Reconciliation Jirga story from local 
Kandaharis and, while they may vary, all reflect Shirzai's 
ambition to turn the reconciliation issue to his personal 
political benefit -- preferably on the national stage.  We 
believe that AWK has the same agenda, and so the question 
becomes whether they contest the issue here in the South or 
split it up.  Both men seem more than willing to volunteer us 
to do the fighting to make reconciliation an attractive 
option for the Taliban and to pay the bills for the program 
itself.  Their part in the enterprise would be managing the 
tricky politics.  The payoff could be big: an avenue toward a 
political solution to the conflict, plus the possibility of 
integrating a reformed Taliban into their respective 
political base.  As calculating as Shirzai and Karzai may 
seem at the moment, if either or both acting together could 
actually deliver significant Taliban from the battlefield to 
the political sphere, their motives might seem less 
important.  That said, given the enmity and the possibility 
each probably sees to run the table on the other, that looks 
like a long shot at this point. 
RICCIARDONE