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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000227 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SOCI TBIO ECON PGOV PREL PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTANI REACTION TO COPENHAGEN CONFERENCE 
 
REF:  ISLAMABAD 146 
 
ISLAMABAD 00000227  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Pakistani reaction to December's Copenhagen 
Conference on Climate Change ranges from disappointment with the 
outcome to outright disapproval of the steps taken to formulate the 
Copenhagen Accord.  Climate change think tanks and a government 
research organization seem to have retained some enthusiasm for the 
next round of talks in Mexico City, but the tone within the Ministry 
of Environment is markedly more subdued when discussing further 
negotiations.  End Summary. 
 
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High-Risk, Low Influence 
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¶2. (SBU) Given Pakistan's heavy reliance upon the rapidly depleting 
glacial melt from the Himalayas, the anticipated effects of climate 
change in Pakistan include the possibility of an acute, nationwide 
water shortage.  GOP officials are therefore keen to see Pakistan 
recognized as a high-risk country.  "We are not sinking, like the 
Maldives," said Arshad Khan, Director of the Government's Global 
Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC), "but our glaciers are melting 
and the shore is disappearing; these two factors will ruin us in 
time."  Ministry of Environment Director General Jawed Ali Khan 
stressed that he would like to see the concept of a nation's 
"vulnerability" scientifically defined and internationally agreed 
upon.  Pakistan, he said, should be acknowledged as highly 
threatened by climate change. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Pakistani delegation was frustrated to not have a 
natural voting bloc to join in Copenhagen.  "We were not a BASIC 
(Brazil, South Africa, India or China) country, we are not a less 
developed country and we are not a small island state," said MoE 
Director General Khan.  "Climate change is a big problem for us, yet 
we are not part of these important groups."  It was particularly 
difficult for the members of the Pakistani Copenhagen delegation to 
see India's tremendous influence during the negotiations.  While 
both nations depend on monsoon rains for a percentage of their crop 
irrigation, Pakistan is far more reliant upon seasonal glacial melt 
to keep its agricultural heartland active; a fact which Pakistani 
experts believe makes their country much more vulnerable to the 
effects of climate change than India.  (Note: India uses seasonal 
glacial melt for 15 percent of its water for agriculture, while 
Pakistan irrigates with 70 percent glacial melt.  End Note.)  As the 
Pakistanis see it, India's status as one of the world's highest 
emitters of greenhouse gases garnered it a place within the highly 
influential BASIC negotiating bloc, giving the Indians a voice at 
Copenhagen that Pakistan lacked, while Pakistan's relatively low 
level of emissions meant that it was further disenfranchised. 
 
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"This is Not an Accord" 
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¶4. (SBU) Reaction to the Copenhagen Accord is for these reasons 
subdued in Pakistan's climate change NGOs and related Ministries. 
"This is not an accord," Momin Agha, Deputy Secretary at the 
Ministry of Environment told EconOff.  "To use the word 'accord' 
means that there was some agreement and in Copenhagen all we saw was 
a locked room and a handful of countries permitted inside."  Ali 
Tauqeer Sheikh, the CEO of the NGO Leadership for Environment and 
Development (LEAD) was uncharacteristically subdued in discussing 
the Accord, saying only that "there is a certain degree of 
disappointment with the outcome from Copenhagen." 
 
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Disappointment with the U.S. 
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¶5. (SBU) Pakistan is particularly dissatisfied with the level of 
emissions reduction pledged by the United States.  "Most 
disappointing for me is the very small commitment from the U.S.," 
said the GCISC's Arshad Khan.  Pakistani officials believe that the 
reduction promised by the U.S. is essentially equal to Kyoto 
Protocol levels; Pakistan had hoped that the U.S. would match levels 
of reduction pledged by other developed countries.  "Some countries 
are pledging to reduce emissions by up to 35 percent," said Khan. 
"We expected the U.S. to come up with an approach comparable to that 
of the EU."  Khan and Sheikh both acknowledged in passing the 
financial commitment pledged by the United States, but both made it 
clear they would rather see a commitment for emissions reduction 
 
ISLAMABAD 00000227  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
from the U.S. 
 
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The Road to Mexico 
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¶6. (SBU) Unlike the GOP, representatives from both GCISC and LEAD 
were able to find a silver lining to Copenhagen's outcome.  Arshad 
Khan of GCISC believes that Pakistan's ability to give voice to its 
concerns in a multilateral forum was a good first step in what he 
hopes will be ongoing negotiations.  Sheikh of LEAD cast Copenhagen 
as a learning experience for the Pakistani delegation, listing a 
larger delegation and the involvement of the Prime Minister among 
his hopes for Pakistan's engagement in Mexico City.  Ministry of 
Environment Deputy Secretary Agha voiced more subdued expectations 
for COP-16, stating "our greatest hope is to see this move forward 
in a more balanced and inclusive way." 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: Ministry of Environment Director General Khan 
promised the announcement of Pakistan's formal position on the 
Copenhagen Accord in mid-January, yet such an announcement is still 
pending.  It is probable that Pakistan will eventually accede to the 
Accord if the BASIC countries decide to do so, but any GOP action on 
this issue will certainly come at minimum speed and with maximum 
distaste.  End Comment. 
 
PATTERSON