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FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9621
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000268 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MC HK
SUBJECT: SOCIAL JUSTICE TRUMPS DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT FOR 
MACAU REFORMERS 
 
REF: (A) 09 HONG KONG 1807 (B) HONG KONG 101 
 
Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher Marut for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Although democracy is now at least a topic 
of discussion in Macau, even the leading advocates of 
democratic reform see little prospect that the public will 
push for more democracy in the near term.  At most, there 
might be a transition in the 2013 legislative elections that 
would change two of the appointed seats in the Legislative 
Assembly to directly-elected seats.  Youth politics are also 
not a force for democratic reform, with one democratic 
politician suggesting young graduates were actually 
well-positioned to benefit from Macau's current economic 
growth.  Democracy not being a mobilizing issue, the 
proto-democratic New Macau Association continues to focus on 
grass-roots issues, particularly public housing, income 
distribution and imported labor. 
 
---------------- 
Under Discussion 
---------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Despite being the only political organization 
supporting democratic reform in Macau to have gained a seat 
in the September Legislative Assembly (LA) elections (ref A), 
the New Macau Association (NMA) recognizes the victory had 
more to do with smart election tactics than increased 
popularity among the public.  (Note: the NMA's two incumbent 
legislators, Antonio Ng Kuok-cheong and Au Kam-sam, ran on 
separate tickets, which allowed them to distribute their vote 
count broadly enough to seat Paul Chan Wai-chi from Ng's 
electoral slate.  End note.)  Recognizing this, NMA's Au told 
us pushing for greater democratic reform is not NMA's main 
focus at present.  They are nevertheless still visible on the 
issue: the NMA has already attempted (unsuccessfully) to 
petition new Chief Executive Fernando Chui Sai-on on 
democratic reform.  The NMA was also able to rally a very 
respectable 1,000 people to march on Macau Foundation Day 
(December 20) in support of democracy and livelihood issues 
and against corruption. 
 
¶3. (C) University of Macau (UM) scholar Eilo Yu Wing-yat told 
us democracy was now a topic of conversation, although he did 
not think those participating in the discussion had a 
particular goal or focus as yet.  Though she did not win a 
seat in the LA, Yu believed UM journalism professor Agnes Lam 
Iok-fong, who had democratic reform in her electoral 
platform, had been established as an opinion leader.  Her 
Civic Power organization continues to bill itself as a 
moderate pro-reform alternative to the "confrontational" NMA. 
 Meanwhile, Yu noted that even the "traditional associations" 
-- "patriotic" organizations founded with PRC backing during 
the colonial period that since the handover have become part 
of the establishment -- now run on platforms promising to 
"check" the Macau government. 
 
¶4. (C) Macau Polytechnic Institute social work professor 
Larry So Man-yum agreed there was no mass support to push for 
democratic reform.  Nevertheless, So expressed hope that 
Macau might make some democratic progress under the Chui 
administration.  Contending that questions were now being 
asked about the number of appointed LA members (currently 
seven, with ten members indirectly elected by economic and 
social sectors and twelve directly elected), he allowed that 
perhaps two of those seats might become directly elected in 
the next legislative elections in 2013. 
 
------------- 
Callow Youth? 
------------- 
 
¶5. (C) NMA's Au felt Macau youth were not involved in 
politics the way Hong Kong's "post-80s" were (see ref b), and 
offered two reasons.  First, Au doubted Macau youth have the 
same developed social consciousness their Hong Kong 
counterparts evince.  Second, while young Hong Kong 
university graduates were having trouble finding good 
employment in Hong Kong's established (and still recovering) 
economy, Au thought young Macau graduates were among the best 
placed to take advantage of Macau's still-considerable boom. 
UM's Yu gave the youth more credit, suggesting the post-80s 
movement in Hong Kong was serving as an example to a 
university/young graduate population already more actively 
discussing political issues.  That said, Yu did not indicate 
Macau youth politics was taking on the radical edge seen in 
Hong Kong. 
 
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HONG KONG 00000268  002 OF 002 
 
 
Doing Well by Doing Good 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) With democracy a distant goal, the NMA continues to 
focus on livelihood issues, which are its bread-and-butter in 
the LA and in public mobilization.  While the government 
agreed to fund universal free education, Au pointed to the 
lack of public housing and the inequitable distribution of 
the economic benefits of Macau's boom as key grass-roots 
concerns.  Polytechnic's So concurred, noting that, while the 
median monthly income was MOP 8,000 (about USD 1000), the 
median dropped to MOP 6,000 (about USD 750) once casino 
workers (median income MOP 10,000/USD 1250) were factored 
out.  That said, So admitted he could not explain why Macau's 
gini coefficient was actually going down (a larger number 
represents a greater societal disparity in wealth). 
 
¶7. (C) While 80 percent of Macau households reported owning 
their residence, So thinks this represents the older 
generation, and that new families have difficulty in finding 
affordable housing.  Two issues add to this problem.  First, 
So suggested local business interests were reluctant to see 
public housing made available that could lower the value of 
their holdings.  Second, there is no land left on which to 
build in Macau, and So actually thinks the government may be 
in "debt" to various developers, owing them land in payment 
for land "swaps."  The public will watch recently-approved 
land reclamation projects closely, So said, looking to see 
how much of the gain ends up in the hands of vested interests. 
MARUT