VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGT #0049/01 0531704
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 221704Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1113
INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0080
RUCNFB/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000049 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/22 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM GT
SUBJECT: Opposition Leader Complains of Smear Campaign 
 
REF: A) 08 GUATEMALA 1017; B) 09 GUATEMALA 919 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Drew G. Blakeney, Political and Economic Counselor, 
State, P/E; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
Summary 
 
 
 
¶1.  (C)  The Ambassador met February 17 with rightist opposition 
leader General Otto Perez Molina.  Perez said the First Lady and 
her associates are preparing a smear campaign to falsely accuse him 
of human rights abuses during the internal conflict, and are trying 
to manipulate the judiciary to disqualify his presidential 
candidacy.  Nonetheless, he was confident of winning the presidency 
in 2011.  Perez Molina's Patriot Party is prepared to work with the 
government in Congress to pass important rule of law reform 
legislation and would even consider supporting controversial tax 
reform, though the increasingly charged political environment 
threatens to derail the legislative agenda.  The Ambassador thanked 
Perez Molina and Baldetti for their support for a new election of 
the head of the public defender's office.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Opposition Leader Perez Molina Confident of Win 
 
 
 
¶2.  (C) On February 17, the Ambassador and Pol/Econ Counselor had 
breakfast with opposition leader retired General Otto Perez Molina 
and Roxana Baldetti, the leader of his rightist Patriot Party's 
congressional bench.  Perez Molina was confident he would win the 
fall 2011 presidential election.  Press had reported on February 16 
the results of two polls.  One that Perez Molina commissioned 
showed him leading First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom with 52% 
support to 9%; the governing UNE's poll reportedly showed him 
edging out the First Lady 21% to 20%.  Perez Molina said he thought 
he had a strong possibility of winning in the first round with over 
50% of the vote. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (C) Asked whether Sandra Torres' leadership of the "My Family 
Progresses"  Conditional Cash Transfer program might give her a 
decisive advantage with rural voters, who had delivered the 
presidency for Alvaro Colom in 2007, Perez Molina said no.  For 
every rural voter UNE had won over with the program, it had 
alienated another due to flawed methodology used to determine who 
should be included.  "That program has divided poor rural 
communities into 'haves' and 'have-nots'; it's actually somewhat 
dangerous," said Baldetti.  Asked whether he would publicly pledge 
to continue the program, Perez Molina smiled wryly and said "I'll 
have to."  Asked about competition from other rightist candidates, 
such as GANA's Alejandro Giammattei and VIVA's Harold Caballeros, 
Baldetti said none had a chance of advancing to the second round. 
In an aside to Pol/Econ Counselor, Baldetti derisively described 
would-be presidential contender Manuel Baldizon as a charlatan and 
criminal. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C) Baldetti said that, while all indications are that the UNE 
believes it can overcome the constitutional prohibition of 
presidents' family members running for the presidency, Sandra 
Torres has not yet cleared that hurdle.  The government's 
manipulation of the courts to allow her candidacy would be the 
source of bitter controversy, she predicted.  Perez Molina added 
that there is a small chance that the UNE would conclude Sandra 
Torres is not  viable candidate, and instead run the popular 
President of Congress, Roberto Alejos. 
 
 
 
First Lady Preparing Smear Campaign 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Perez Molina said Sandra Torres is working closely with 
Gloria Porras, Secretary General of the Attorney General's Office, 
to develop specious embezzlement charges that would falsely 
implicate him in the congressional MDF embezzlement scandal (ref 
a).  He asserted that President Colom, at his wife's behest, plans 
 
to name Porras Attorney General in May which, he opined, would 
politicize the Attorney General's Office and guarantee impunity for 
the First Family.  The Ambassador said the Embassy and the UN-led 
International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) 
would engage closely on the Attorney General selection process, as 
we had done with the Supreme Court last year (ref b).  Perez Molina 
accused Secretary of Peace Orlando Blanco, a member of the First 
Lady's inner circle, of coaching indigenous people in Quiche 
Department - where Perez Molina served as an army detachment 
commander during the internal conflict - to bear false witness 
against him.  Specifically, he said, Blanco was preparing a false 
accusation that Perez Molina had personally murdered an entire 
indigenous family. 
 
 
 
Prospects Good for Passage of Rule of Law Reform Legislation 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C) Baldetti agreed with the Ambassador on the urgency of 
congressional passage of certain rule of law reform measures, 
particularly the Assets Seizure Law, Illicit Enrichment Law, and 
Injunctions (amparos) Reform Law.  She said congressional consensus 
was broad enough to ensure passage, likely within the next few 
months, but cautioned that partisan political attacks could derail 
the legislative agenda at any moment.  The Ambassador pressed her 
to see to it that that did not happen.  Baldetti said she thought 
Congress could pass the most important legislation before Easter 
Week, "but after that the knives will come out."  Many Members of 
Congress from other parties are looking to enhance their 
re-election prospects by switching to the Patriot Party, Baldetti 
said.  No decision had yet been made on whether to accept them, but 
she said there probably is not room for many on the party's slate 
of congressional candidates, and that accepting too many outsiders 
could threaten the party's ideological coherence. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) Perez Molina thanked the Ambassador for having hosted him 
and President Colom to restart dialogue.  He said he and the 
president  -- with whom he met in January -- were on speaking 
terms, though the same did not hold for the First Lady.  The two 
sides were not as far apart on tax reform as Colom publicly 
indicated, Perez Molina said.  The Patriot Party also recognizes 
the need for increased government revenue, and disagreed only with 
the income and car tax portions of the GOG's proposed reform 
package.  Enhanced transparency would, however, be critical to 
building public confidence and therefore political consensus, given 
rampant corruption.  The Ambassador noted that he had urged Colom 
to work much harder on transparency.  He thanked Perez Molina and 
Baldetti for their support for the annulment of Congress's recent 
election of a problematic candidate to head the Public Defenders' 
Institute (septel). 
 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
 
 
¶8.  (C) The fall 2011 election is far off, but is now foremost in 
the minds of Guatemala's political class.  At this early stage, 
Perez Molina appears to be the candidate to beat.  The campaign 
will feature much mud-slinging.  A former head of military 
intelligence, Perez Molina is no babe in the woods, and will surely 
do his share of the slinging.   Opponents exhaustively reviewed his 
human rights record in the course of the 2007 presidential 
campaign, and were never able to develop evidence of wrongdoing. 
In the meantime, we will work to keep Congress focused on the 
important legislative business at hand. 
MCFARLAND