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RR RUEHBZ RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDU #0010/01 0530952
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 220952Z FEB 10
FM AMCONSUL DURBAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1556
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0941

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000010 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/S; INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: IFP LEADERSHIP BATTLE CONTINUES 
 
REF: A 09 DURBAN 50; B 09 DURBAN 100 
 
DURBAN 00000010  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.     The redeployment of Inkatha Freedom Party 
(IFP) National Chairperson Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi has deepened 
fissures within the party.  KaMagwaza-Msibi's supporters claim 
certain IFP leaders are attempting to separate her from her 
constituency ahead of the party's elective conference.  African 
National Conference (ANC) officials have publicly invited 
kaMagwaza-Msibi to join their party claiming that the IFP is not 
women friendly.   KaMagwaza-Msibi temporarily retreated from 
public life but remains the most likely candidate to succeed IFP 
president Mangosuthu Buthelezi.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
FIGHT FOR POWER 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Rumors that IFP founder and president Prince 
Mangosuthu Buthelezi might soon step down have created a 
scramble for power within the party.   The two most likely IFP 
leaders to succeed Buthelezi are kaMagwaza-Msibi and IFP General 
Secretary Musa Zondi.  While these two leaders have stated 
publicly that they would not stand against Buthelezi at the 
IFP's elective conference in May, supporters of both leaders 
have openly clashed and called for new leadership (Ref B). 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) KaMagwaza-Msibi has been tipped by media and political 
analysts as representing the best chance for the IFP to revive 
its political prospects (Ref A).   She is a forward-thinking 
politician who enjoys the support of the IFP Youth Brigade, the 
IFP Women's Brigade, and progressives within the party. 
KaMagwaza-Msibi's successful run as mayor of Zululand, a major 
KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) municipality, is a bright spot for a party 
that has, for many, come to represent incompetent or incapable 
public service.   Zondi, on the other hand, is a more distant 
leader but has the support of IFP traditionalists (Ref B). 
KaMagwaza-Msibi's supporters claim that Zondi's supporters are 
behind attempts to harass kaMagwaza-Msibi into submission and 
keep her from running for party president. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) As the succession contest has grown increasingly 
public and rancorous, kaMagwaza-Msibi has avoided media events 
and has stopped attending IFP meetings.  An uncharacteristically 
exasperated kaMagwaza-Msibi told Pol/Econ Assistant on January 
26 that she `did not want to discuss her situation.' She did, 
however, offer that she was under `a lot of party pressure.' 
IFP Deputy National Spokesperson Thulasizwe Buthelezi (a known 
Zondi supporter) told Pol/Econ Assistant on January 25 that 
party leaders are growing concerned about kaMagwaza-Msibi's 
recent behavior.  They are even considering asking Prince 
Buthelezi to speak with her to determine if she is well, he 
added. 
 
 
 
KAMAGWAZA-MSIBI TOLD TO MOVE UP, NOT OUT 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On January 31, the IFP National Council resolved to 
redeploy kaMagwaza-Msibi from her mayoral position to the KZN 
Legislature.   Because kaMagwaza-Msibi must step down after her 
current mayoral term ends in 2011, the IFP wants to move her now 
in order to secure her service to the party beyond that time, 
Zondi told local media of the national council's resolution. 
KaMagwaza-Msibi's supporters, however, believe that the national 
council's decision is an attempt to separate kaMagwaza-Msibi 
from her constituency ahead of the elective conference.  In 
response to the redeployment, angered IFP members formed the 
Friends of Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi group (FOZ), which calls for 
kaMagwaza-Msibi to be elected party president.   Although she 
has previously called for party members to desist from 
campaigning for new leadership ahead of the IFP elective 
conference (Ref B), kaMagwaza-Msibi has not denounced the latest 
calls for her to be elected president.  FOZ Spokesperson 
Nhlanhla Khawula told Pol/Econ assistant that FOZ will support 
kaMagwaza-Msibi `till the end' and that they stand against 
leaders such as KZN IFP Chairperson Mtomuhle Khawula (who 
happens to be his brother) who declare that the IFP will `never 
be led by a woman. 
 
 
 
DURBAN 00000010  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In response to rumors that prominent IFP mayors and 
councilors were planning to condemn publicly kaMagwaza-Msibi's 
redeployment, IFP National Organizer Albert Mncwango (a known 
Zondi supporter) released a press statement on January 28 
threatening to dismiss from the party anyone who stood against 
the IFP's resolutions. 
 
 
 
ANC GLADLY FUELS FLAMES OF GENDER DISCONTENT 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Political rivals in the ANC capitalized on the IFP's 
infighting and publicly invited kaMagwaza-Msibi to join the ANC. 
 `We like her in the ANC and we know how to take care of women,' 
said Minister of Human Settlements Tokyo Sexwale at an ANC rally 
on January 24.  KaMagwaza-Msibi rejected in a letter to the 
media the ANC's overture, but the invitation reinforces the 
long-standing notion that the IFP is dominated by 
traditionalists who do not want to be led by a woman.  Although 
IFP Parliamentarian Helen Makhubu also rejected this 
characterization on behalf of female party members, National 
Chairperson of the IFP Women's Brigade Thembi Nzuza (a known 
supporter of kaMagwaza-Msibi) issued no such statements, 
suggesting that there is merit to the issue of gender inequality 
(and even harassment) within the party. 
 
 
 
KAMAGWAZA-MSIBI IS GOING NOWHERE SOON 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The decision to redeploy kaMagwaza-Msibi may come to 
naught, however, due to a technicality, according to Chris 
Mlotshwa, a manager in the Office of the Speaker of the KZN 
Legislature.  After the IFP lost the 2009 general election to 
the ANC in KZN, kaMagwaza-Msibi declined to take up her seat as 
a KZN legislator, opting to remain mayor of Zululand, Mlotshwa 
told Pol/Econ Officer and Assistant on February 10.  As she is 
no longer on the official list of legislators, kaMagwaza-Msibi 
cannot be appointed to the KZN Legislature until the Independent 
Electoral Commission (IEC) reviews the IFP's petition for 
kaMagwaza-Msibi's reinstatement.  The end result is that 
kaMagwaza-Msibi will remain mayor of Zululand until the end of 
May, Mlotshwa said, when the IEC will next consider such 
petitions. 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) KaMagwaza-Msibi will likely never leave the party she 
joined as a teenager in 1975.  Her recent withdrawal from the 
public and from party meetings should not be seen as a sign of 
weakness but rather an indication of her strong distaste for 
public power plays.  Also, she seems truly hurt that political 
rivals within the party would portray her as anti-Buthelezi or 
power hungry.  Unless Buthelezi decides to step down at the IFP 
elective conference in May, kaMagwaza-Msibi will likely (as she 
did during the 2008 conference) declare her loyalty to the 
Prince and the IFP, and fall in line with party directives.  If 
the IFP presidency does become vacant, kaMagwaza-Msibi will 
respond to calls to run for president and will likely win - to 
the chagrin of party traditionalists who never imagined or 
wanted a woman at the helm of the IFP.   If the traditionalists 
do not revolt and kaMagwaza-Msibi can hold the party together, 
the IFP might yet become a relevant political force in the new 
South Africa. 
DERDERIAN