VZCZCXRO5450
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHDJ #0191/01 0480916
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 170916Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1420
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 000191 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/17 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPAO PHUM SO DJ
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI: LAST UNDECIDED RULING COALITION PARTNER SUPPORTS 
GUELLEH FOR THIRD TERM 
 
REF: 09 DJIBOUTI 1417; 09 DJIBOUTI 1405; 10 DJIBOUTI 129 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: J. Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  President Guelleh's last undecided and 
undisputedly most important ruling coalition partner has declared 
its support for a constitutional amendment allowing him to run for 
a third term in office in 2011.  Yet while the FRUD ("Front for the 
Restoration of Democracy and Unity") did throw its weight behind a 
third mandate, its endorsement was not unconditional.  The 
ethnic-Afar, former armed opposition group--widely recognized as a 
legitimate national political voice and an important counterweight 
to the President's own party-- also voiced criticism toward some 
aspects of Guelleh's administration, called for a rebalancing of 
representation between the two parties, and demanded that any 
constitutional amendment be submitted to the people in a 
referendum.  While disagreements over strategy and policy may well 
still simmer among some FRUD members, the party has now officially 
adopted and promulgated its core positions.  With the FRUD's public 
stance declared, inter- and intraparty discussions will now turn 
towards the mechanics of a constitutional amendment, including the 
crucial decision of whether it will be voted on by the full 
population, or by the National Assembly.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
FRUD: YES TO CONSITUTIONAL REVISION-- 
 
BUT MUST BE BY NATIONAL REFERENDUM 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) The FRUD held a two-day national party convention February 
10-11 at the People's Palace, Djibouti's flagship public conference 
center.  The event was well-attended, not just by FRUD leaders and 
members, but by a full complement of representatives from the 
partner ruling coalition parties of the UMP ("Union for a 
Presidential Majority").  Amidst regular party business and 
displays of traditional music and dancing, the two most 
carefully-watched components of the convention were the keynote 
speech of FRUD party president Ali Mohamed Daoud ("Jean-Marie"), 
and the formal adoption of seven resolutions by the convention 
attendees. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) In his speech, Daoud focused on both regional and national 
questions.  Domestically, he criticized slow progress on 
decentralization and democratic growth.  He nevertheless praised 
President Guelleh for several important achievements, and noted 
that the FRUD--not being in a position to present its own candidate 
for 2011 presidential elections and seeing no other viable 
alternatives--would support a constitutional amendment allowing 
Guelleh to run for a third term in office.  Regionally, Daoud 
addressed the threats of piracy and instability in Somalia, as well 
the ongoing Djibouti-Eritrea border dispute.  Notably, he 
criticized the GODJ's commitment to contribute troops to AMISOM as 
"counterproductive," and without precedent. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The FRUD convention closed with the adoption of seven 
resolutions: 
 
 
 
--Resolution One: Calls for "further action by President Guelleh in 
the context of a third mandate," while noting that the 
constitutional revision needed to allow for a third term should be 
"submitted to the people's votes by referendum." 
 
 
 
--Resolution Two: Calls for a new agreement between the FRUD and 
the President's RPP (People's Rally for Progress) party to replace 
the outdated 1994 agreement ending the civil conflicts of that 
decade.  Proposes a "Charter of Alliance" between coalition allies, 
with appropriate coordination and monitoring mechanisms. 
 
DJIBOUTI 00000191  002 OF 003 
 
 
--Resolution Three: Calls for FRUD leaders to "quickly correct" 
imbalances in representation between the FRUD and the RPP. 
 
 
 
--Resolution Four: (Administrative resolution on time frame for 
implementing resolutions) 
 
 
 
--Resolution Five (SOMALIA): Takes note of the situation in 
Somalia, supports the Djibouti Peace Process, and "approves of the 
President of the FRUD's analysis" of the situation in Somalia. 
(COMMENT.  Without expressly stating opposition to the GODJ's plan 
to contribute troops to AMISOM, this resolution de facto endorses 
FRUD President Daoud's criticism of that decision.  END COMMENT). 
 
 
 
--Resolution Six (ERITREA): Condemns Eritrea's actions and calls 
for applying sanctions against Eritrea. 
 
 
 
--Resolution Seven (PALESTINIAN PEOPLE): Expresses solidarity with 
the Palestinian people.  Calls on the international community, and 
in particular the United States, to push Israel to comply with 
applicable United Nations resolutions. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Treatment of the FRUD convention in state-owned media, 
including the French-language newspaper "La Nation," included 
unusually direct coverage of the FRUD's criticisms of the 
government.  One story printed all seven FRUD resolutions, while an 
initial piece summarized Daoud's keynote speech.  Covered topics 
included Daoud's characterization of Djibouti's decentralization 
process as "embryonic and fragile," as well as his statements that 
Djiboutian democracy had not fully "responded to the hopes 
nourished by our compatriots" and that election methods did not 
allow for full representation and "political alternation."  This 
relatively open coverage was framed by a headline that focused on 
the FRUD's endorsement of a constitutional amendment: "FRUD says 
yes to a revision of the constitution, demands a referendum." 
 
 
 
¶6. (C) As the FRUD leadership publicly declared support for a third 
term for Guelleh, private gossip in Djibouti City focused on 
remaining divisions among the FRUD rank-and-file.  Postings on at 
least one opposition website (the "Association for the Respect of 
Human Rights in Djibouti") painted FRUD President Daoud as a 
traitor to his supporters and people.  (COMMENT.  There is still 
some level of dissent among FRUD members--or more broadly, within 
the FRUD's ethnic-Afar constituency.  However, Djibouti's 
intensively consultative decision-making protocols make it highly 
unlikely that top FRUD leadership would take so public a stance 
without having first gathered sufficient support through lengthy 
informal discussions within the party.  Likewise, although details 
on which party gets what likely remain somewhat fluid, the FRUD's 
basic support for a third mandate (ref A) was clearly carefully 
negotiated with the RPP in advance.  END COMMENT). 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
DISSENTING VOICES ISOLATED, BUT ACTIVE 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) PND ("National Democratic Party") President Aden Robleh 
Awaleh--now the only ruling coalition partner to have publicly 
rejected a constitutional amendment allowing President Guelleh to 
run for a third term in office (ref B)--attended and spoke at the 
FRUD convention.  His speech reportedly focused on the historical 
roles of the PND and the FRUD as lead agents in the fight for 
democracy in Djibouti, and on the cooperative links between the two 
groups.  The PND newsletter "La Republique" continues to appear 
biweekly, and a February 11 edition invited "human rights 
activists, union leaders, and political leaders" to contribute 
their thoughts for a page dedicated to readers' opinions. 
 
DJIBOUTI 00000191  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) None of the members of the three-party opposition grouping 
UAD ("Union for a Democratic Alternation") attended the FRUD 
convention.  In a press release posted to opposition websites on 
February 10 (the opening day of the FRUD convention), UAD member 
ARD ("Republican Alliance for Democracy") Secretary General Kassim 
Ali Dini announced that the ARD will hold a party assembly on 
February 25-26 in Djibouti City's Balbala neighborhood.  The ARD, 
which counts former members of the armed wing of the FRUD, 
represents a heavily ethnic-Afar constituency. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
NEXT STEPS: REVISION BY REFERENDUM? 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (C) COMMENT.  After the FRUD's announcement of support for a 
constitutional revision, many are expecting President Guelleh to 
break his long public silence and officially announce a third run 
during a planned March 4 RPP Central Committee meeting.  However, 
if the question of proposing a constitutional amendment appears 
largely settled, the question of how to do so is still very much up 
in the air.  The FRUD has now publicly demanded a referendum; and 
in the past senior GODJ officials have told Ambassador that they 
too were in favor of a plebiscite.  Nevertheless, the constitution 
allows the President to decide whether to approve amendments via a 
majority vote in both the National Assembly and in a referendum--or 
instead, by two-thirds majority in the National Assembly.  Minister 
of the Interior Yacin Elmi Bouh recently told Ambassador that the 
RPP's Central Committee would urge President Guelleh to choose the 
National Assembly route (ref C).  On February 10, Minister Bouh 
told visiting Director of the National Defense University's Africa 
Center for Strategic Studies Ambassador Bellamy and EmbOffs that 
the financial and personnel costs of organizing a referendum in 
such close proximity to the 2011 presidential and regional 
elections should also be taken into account.  As key GODJ decision 
makers continue to negotiate toward a constitutional revision, Post 
will again reinforce the message that free, fair, and transparent 
elections--and election preparations--are in everybody's interest. 
END COMMENT. 
SWAN