VZCZCXRO0677
RR RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDJ #0165/01 0411559
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101559Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1371
INFO SOMALIA COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000165 
 
SIPDIS 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/10 
TAGS: PREL PTER SO SU YM DJ ET KE
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI: FOREIGN MINISTER UPDATE ON SOMALIA 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: J. Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  During a February 10 meeting with visiting 
Director of the National Defense University's Africa Center for 
Strategic Studies (ACSS) Ambassador William Bellamy, Djiboutian 
Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf assessed the current 
situation in Somalia with pragmatism, concern, and a hint of 
impatience.  Despite ongoing international, regional, and 
Djiboutian support and advice to the Transitional Federal 
Government (TFG), Youssouf said, extremist activity was still on 
the rise in Somalia, and directly threatened Djiboutian security 
and economic interests.  He cautioned that if Kenya decided to move 
forward with its planned Jubaland initiative, Somalis would be 
quick to use such "interference" as an excuse to foment unrest in 
Nairobi.  Djiboutian President Guelleh speaks with TFG President 
Sharif nearly every day, Youssouf said, and counsels him to focus 
on increasing security in Mogadishu, providing services to the 
population, and ramping up public diplomacy efforts to counter 
al-Shabaab's all-too-effective messaging.  Briefly touching on 
Sudan, Youssouf said that the Kenyans had asked for an 
Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) summit on the 
Comprehensive Peace Agreement to be convened in two to three weeks' 
time, but said he had no further details.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
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SOMALIA AND KENYA 
 
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¶2. (C) Current levels of diplomatic and military assistance to the 
TFG had not been enough to staunch rising extremist activity in 
Somalia, Youssouf said.  In addition to the direct threat to 
Djibouti's economic installations and internal security, extremism 
was increasingly endangering Yemen--and now Al Qaeda in the Arabian 
Peninsula has threatened international shipping through the 
Bab-el-Mandeb strait.  Ambassador Bellamy noted Kenyans' growing 
sense of urgency on countering extremist threats emanating from 
Somalia.  Youssouf said that the GOK's cooperation in combating 
piracy had "boomeranged" back, with ethnic Somalis demonstrating in 
Nairobi.  Eldoret Airport has become a major point of entry for 
goods smuggled from Somalia into Kenya, and could mask movement of 
extremist-linked contraband, he added.  Youssouf likened his 
reaction to Kenya's Jubaland initiative to his fears about 
Ethiopia's imminent involvement in Somalia in 2006.  This kind of 
"interference" can only have negative repercussions for Kenya 
itself, he cautioned.  Extremists would quickly turn such 
intervention into an excuse for undermining Kenya's internal 
security.  On a positive note, Youssouf praised regional 
coordination on Somalia policy.  With the notable exception of 
Eritrea, Somalia's Horn of Africa neighbors were much more focused 
and coordinated on Somalia questions than they had been in some 
years. 
 
 
 
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DJIBOUTI TO SHARIF: FOCUS ON THE POPULATION 
 
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¶3. (C) President Guelleh, Youssouf said, continued to speak by 
telephone with TFG President Sheik Sharif nearly every day. 
Guelleh was advising Sharif to focus primarily on security, 
services for the population, and public outreach.  The TFG needed 
to control Mogadishu first, Youssouf stressed, moving beyond Villa 
Somalia into other neighborhoods while an AMISOM cordon prevented 
al-Shabaab from reinforcing.  While dialogue remained important, 
the TFG should negotiate from a position of strength, balancing the 
carrot and the stick.  Youssouf agreed with Ambassador Bellamy that 
the TFG had to create momentum in the security arena, and then use 
it to begin providing services to the population.  He criticized a 
recent TFG budget for devoting some 50 percent of resources to 
security and another 20-30 percent to salaries, rather than 
channeling more to basic services. 
 
 
 
4 (C) "Sustainable security of the government itself will stem from 
the security of the population," Youssouf stressed.  He agreed that 
 
DJIBOUTI 00000165  002 OF 002 
 
 
there was a danger the TFG could concentrate too much on surviving, 
requesting additional troops for its own protection rather to help 
start governing.  President Sharif was a good leader, Youssouf 
assessed, but right now Somalia might need more aggressive 
decision-making.  President Guelleh had already counseled President 
Sharif to focus on governance instead of on keeping peace between 
the clans.  If Sharif could end his term by finishing the 
constitution and securing 80 percent of Mogadishu, it would be a 
good accomplishment.  If Sharif just tries to mediate between the 
clans, Youssouf warned, he could end up achieving 
nothing--following in the footsteps of several of his predecessors. 
Youssouf said that the TFG was still not doing nearly enough mass 
outreach.  In the wake of the December 3 Shamo Hotel attack, for 
example, the TFG had broadcast only mourning recitations from the 
Koran on its radio stations, missing out on a prime opportunity to 
communicate to the population how extremist attacks hurt ordinary 
Somalis. 
 
 
 
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UPCOMING IGAD SUMMIT ON CPA? 
 
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¶5. (C) In an aside on Sudan, Youssouf said that Kenya had recently 
asked that an IGAD summit be convened in some two or three weeks to 
discuss the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).  Youssouf said 
that Djibouti had not yet received an invitation to the event with 
specific dates.  The December 2009 IGAD Ministerial meeting in 
Djibouti had called for Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin 
and Ugandan Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa to travel to Khartoum and 
Juba on an IGAD mission to consult the CPA signatories, but 
Youssouf said that this trip had not occurred. 
 
 
 
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COMMENT 
 
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¶6. (C) Along with the ongoing Djibouti-Eritrea border dispute, 
Somalia remains the GODJ's central security concern.  Beyond its 
hosting of the Djibouti Process, the GODJ clearly remains committed 
to supporting the TFG.  In addition to helping train TFG recruits 
and planning an AMISOM troop contribution, the GODJ also consults 
regularly with the TFG leadership on its strategy.  Like other GODJ 
officials, Foreign Minister Youssouf has invested deeply in the 
TFG's success.  Yet as an ethnic Afar, his equities in Somalia are 
largely professional rather than personal, and he sometimes betrays 
exasperation over intractable Somali inter-clan struggles.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) Ambassador Swan and POL/ECONOff Hunter (notetaker) also 
participated in this meeting.  ACSS Director Ambassador Bellamy did 
not have an opportunity to clear this cable before departing post. 
SWAN