VZCZCXRO3152
OO RUEHBC RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHDM #0097/01 0321329
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 011329Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7306
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 5914
INFO RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0873
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0827
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 1017
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 000097 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR PRM/ANE, DEPT FOR USAID, CAIRO FOR FAS, LONDON FOR 
MILLER, PARIS FOR NOBLES, ROME FOR WFP WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2020 
TAGS: EAGR EAID ECON FAS PGOV PREL SOCI SY WFP
SUBJECT: SARG SHEDS LIGHT ON ITS DROUGHT CONCERNS 
 
REF: A. DAMASCUS 070 
     ¶B. 09 DAMASCUS 619 
     ¶C. 09 DAMASCUS 432 
     ¶D. 09 DAMASCUS 499 
     ¶E. 08 DAMASCUS 847 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Chuck Hunter for reasons 1.4(b,d) 
 
 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  SARG officials discussed the drought 
afflicting northeast Syria with surprising transparency 
during a January 27 public forum that drew comparisons to 
those held during the pre-2001 "Damascus Spring."  During the 
same week, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs 
Abdullah al-Dardari publicly blamed the drought for Syria's 
failure to achieve a series of economic goals in the past few 
years.  Though recent rains raised hopes of possible relief 
on the horizon, representatives from the World Food Program 
(WFP) and Action Against Hunger-Spain underscored the 
worsening humanitarian impact of the drought during meetings 
with Emboffs.  The WFP effort has reached "a critical point," 
and WFP officials believe that a U.S. contribution could 
spark a "domino effect" of donations that will not otherwise 
be forthcoming.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
SARG INCREASINGLY FRANK ABOUT DROUGHT SEVERITY 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2. (C) SARG officials discussed the drought afflicting 
northeast Syria with surprising transparency during a January 
27 public forum organized by the Syrian Economic Society. 
Some press commentators compared the event to those held 
during the "Damascus Spring," a movement that attempted to 
revive civil society but was eventually crushed by the SARG 
in 2001.  Government participants at the forum acknowledged 
that poverty levels in the northeast governorates now hover 
around 80 percent, and the water shortage approaches 2.5 
billion cubic meters per year.  Hassan Katana, Head of 
Statistics and Planning at the Ministry of Agriculture, told 
attendees, "All our agricultural resources have been used up. 
 The real challenge is to develop strategies and know-how to 
provide new economic activity in this region."  Atieh 
al-Hindi, Head of the National Agricultural Policy Center, 
acknowledged the government's responsibility for 
environmental challenges, remarking that its subsidy policies 
helped to improve living standards in the northeast but 
contributed to the region's water shortage. 
 
¶3. (SBU) During the same week, Deputy Prime Minister for 
Economic Affairs Abdullah al-Dardari arguably went further, 
blaming the drought wholesale for recent economic 
shortcomings.  Speaking to the First Conference on 
International Development in Syria on January 23, Dardari 
lamented that "Syria could have achieved goals pertaining to 
unemployment, poverty, and growth if it was not for the 
drought that hit the country." 
 
------------------- 
"FROM BAD TO WORSE" 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) World Food Program (WFP) Country Representative 
Muhannad Hadi and Action Against Hunger-Spain (ACF) Head of 
Mission Lucia Oliveira underscored the continuing impact of 
the drought in the northeast during recent meetings with 
Emboffs.  Having just returned from a three-day visit to the 
region, Hadi described the humanitarian situation in the 
drought-stricken governorates as "going from bad to worse." 
He said the trip reinforced his conviction that migrants are 
coming back to the region (ref A), drawn by encouraging 
rainfall over recent months.  While Hadi confirmed that 
fields are noticeably greener in the areas he visited, he 
acknowledged starkly that WFP "can't meet the needs of those 
returning," given the organization's struggle even to attract 
sufficient funds to feed its target population of 300,000 
individuals. 
 
¶5. (C) WFP Deputy Country Director Silvana Giuffrida 
expressed cautious optimism about a strong wheat harvest this 
year, but emphasized both the continued immediate need to 
feed the affected population through the summer harvest 
season and the longer-term need for assistance in overcoming 
four years of catastrophic drought.  In a vignette 
demonstrating the serious economic and social consequences of 
 
DAMASCUS 00000097  002 OF 003 
 
 
the crisis, Giuffrida recounted a conversation she had with a 
mother who married off two of her daughters early because she 
could no longer afford to feed them.  Her son had also 
departed six months earlier with other migrants from the 
village to find work in Lebanon and has not been seen or 
heard from since.  "When I asked how old he was, I expected 
her to say 15 or 16," Giuffrida said.  "But he was only nine 
years old." 
 
¶6. (C) Oliveira, who lives and works in Hassakeh, drew a 
similar picture as Hadi and Giuffrida during a January 27 
meeting.  Oliveira said that pastures and farmland are 
"sprouting" after much-needed rain, but tremendous 
humanitarian needs continue to persist in the region.  She 
added that malnutrition rates among Iraqi refugees in 
northeast Syria (the population targeted by ACF's projects in 
the area) are not especially high but that ACF's assessments 
have identified higher levels of low-calorie consumption and 
anemia.  Oliveira judges that these problems are mirrored 
among the regional Syrian population, and usually in greater 
severity. 
 
----------------------------------- 
HOPING FOR A U.S.-LED DOMINO EFFECT 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Hadi confessed to growing frustration with the funding 
of the current WFP appeal.  The $22.3 million Emergency 
Response launched in November has thus far received only $5.3 
million from donors, though Hadi announced that a further $2 
million from European Commission Humanitarian Aid (ECHO) 
appears to be imminent. (NOTE: Contacts from the EU 
Delegation in Damascus confirmed Hadi's statement, but noted 
that the donation has not been finalized yet.  END NOTE.) 
When asked when WFP might be forced to decide between cutting 
the target number of beneficiaries or cutting food rations, 
Hadi responded "right now."  WFP currently has sufficient 
funds to cover 240,000 beneficiaries for food distribution 
scheduled to begin in February, 60,000 fewer than intended. 
For the second food distribution in March/April, the 
shortfall is even larger: even with the expected funds from 
ECHO, WFP would only have enough resources to feed 150,000 
individuals. 
 
¶8. (C) In light of the funding shortfall, Hadi declared that 
"we are at a critical point."  Citing the opinion of WFP 
officials in Rome, he asserted that no further donations 
would likely be forthcoming unless the United States steps 
forward with a contribution which could spark a "domino 
effect."  Giuffrida added that even a "symbolic" U.S. 
donation could not only inject new life into the WFP appeal, 
but also -- based on her frequent interactions with SARG 
officials -- could "go a long way" politically for U.S.-Syria 
relations.  Both officials emphasized more than once that 
they would welcome the opportunity to bring a U.S. embassy 
representative on a future trip to the region to witness the 
humanitarian situation first hand. 
 
¶9. (C) Hadi (please protect) revealed that the rebranding of 
the current WFP appeal as an "emergency" -- previously a 
redline term for the SARG -- had much to do with the United 
States.  He explained that over a period of several months 
last year, his conversations with SARG officials revealed 
lessening suspicion of U.S. motives under the Obama 
administration.  Hadi believes this more relaxed outlook 
permitted the SARG to lower its ideological guard and be more 
frank about the severity of the situation in the 
drought-affected areas. 
 
¶10. (C) COMMENT:  The statements by Dardari and SARG 
participants at the public forum days later demonstrated a 
newfound willingness to discuss more openly the economic and 
social challenges posed by the drought; however, publicly 
acknowledging the scale of migration from the northeast is 
still considered taboo.  Moreover, Dardari's comments are 
also likely an effort to deflect dissatisfaction with the 
country's economic performance away from himself, the focal 
point of much public ire. 
 
¶11. (C) COMMENT, cont: Giuffrida's allusion to a "symbolic" 
donation implies that WFP may anticipate that any U.S. 
contribution would be well below the $10 million requested 
last month.  Nonetheless, her contention that a U.S. donation 
would go "a long way politically " probably overstates the 
 
DAMASCUS 00000097  003 OF 003 
 
 
significance the SARG would attach to such a gesture, though 
it could serve as a potential confidence-building step in 
U.S.-SARG engagement.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
HUNTER