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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000078 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2020 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION UPDATE: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 
ELECTIONS COMMISSIONER, AND MORE 
 
REF: A. COLOMBO 76 
     ¶B. COLOMBO 65 
     ¶C. COLOMBO 62 
     ¶D. COLOMBO 61 
     ¶E. COLOMBO 59 
     ¶F. COLOMBO 57 
     ¶G. COLOMBO 53 
     ¶H. COLOMBO 51 
     ¶I. COLOMBO 48 
     ¶J. COLOMBO 47 
     ¶K. COLOMBO 46 
     ¶L. COLOMBO 45 
 
COLOMBO 00000078  001.2 OF 002 
 
     ¶M. COLOMBO 40 
     ¶N. COLOMBO 36 
     ¶O. COLOMBO 27 
     ¶P. COLOMBO 21 
     ¶Q. COLOMBO 11 
     ¶R. COLOMBO 7 
     ¶S. COLOMBO 2 
     ¶T. 09 COLOMBO 1152 
     ¶U. 09 COLOMBO 1145 
     ¶V. 09 COLOMBO 1139 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS.  REASONS: 1.4 (B, D) 
 
GENERAL ELECTION LIKELY IN 
LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL 
---------------------------- 
 
¶1. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) After broaching the idea 
on January 28, President Rajapaksa's plan appears to be to 
dissolve Parliament on or about February 5, with a general 
election most likely towards the end of March or early April. 
 Analysts suggest the president is hoping to capitalize on 
his victory over the opposition in the recent presidential 
election, and GSL allies have already begun predicting a big 
win for Rajapaksa, with Wimal Weerawansa of the frequently 
anti-American National Freedom Front (NFF) predicting the 
President's governing coalition would easily secure a 
two-thirds majority.  The opposition appears to be regrouping 
after its election loss.  One JVP contact told Post that the 
coalition's goal was to end the executive presidency, and 
that the parliamentary elections would still serve as a venue 
for them to accomplish that and maintain unity in the 
campaign. 
 
ELECTIONS COMMISSIONER DILEMMA 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.)  Though the Elections 
Commissioner told PolOff on January 28 that he was retiring 
by February 1, whether the president accepted it or not (Ref. 
B), a rumor emerged over the weekend that he would lose his 
pension if the president did not accept the resignation and 
he nonetheless stopped coming to work.  Post contacted his 
office on February 1 and learned he had come in to the office 
for work, presumably to begin preparations for the expected 
parliamentary elections.  Although the EC had told PolOff 
that his retirement would bring about a constitutional 
crisis, other analysts said over the weekend that the Supreme 
Court could accept his retirement in lieu of the president, 
and then appoint his deputy as a replacement commissioner. 
This would apparently provide a legal way to sidestep the 
requirement that the 17th amendment be instituted first to 
allow the appointment of a new elections commissioner. 
 
CLAIMS OF VOTE RIGGING CONTINUE 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.)  Various opposition 
 
COLOMBO 00000078  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
figures provided more details on what it described as a 
massive vote-rigging operation by the government.  Chief 
among the claims was a full-page interview in the Sunday 
Leader newspaper with Mangala Samaraweera, seen as the chief 
architect of Fonseka's campaign.  Mangala claimed the 
government had pulled off a massive, high-tech fraud 
operation involving the intimidation of opposition 
vote-counting observers coupled with computer-based fraud at 
the district-secretariat level and at the EC's office.  The 
newspaper said Mangala promised the opposition would have 
more details on this soon and that they would contest the 
results formally while simultaneously campaigning for the 
general election. 
 
¶4. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Post received reports 
during the morning of January 27, while ballots were being 
counted, that the Elections Commissioner was being held by 
security forces.  Post contacted his office by phone late in 
the morning, and was told by a deputy commissioner that the 
EC was at the office but was busy with the counting and 
unable to come to the phone. 
 
¶5. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) Over the weekend of 
January 30-31, the government ordered Swiss journalist Karin 
Wenger to leave the country, although after heavy criticism 
from the international community, the government reversed its 
decision and allowed Ms. Wenger to stay.  It was widely 
suspected that the government was unhappy with her because 
she asked questions at a government news conference about the 
location and status of the EC on January 27.  Wenger 
reportedly had asked Education Minister Susil Premajayantha 
why Basil Rajapaksa, the president's brother, had gone to see 
the EC shortly before the latter announced the results. 
Premajayantha became visibly upset and said Basil had been 
"sleeping" at that time.  Opposition sympathizers claimed 
Basil in fact had gone to force the Commissioner into 
certifying the falsified results and that the Commissioner's 
bizarre speech at the results release was clear evidence he 
was under extreme coercion.  Wenger reportedly said she saw 
Basil leave the EC office just after the results 
announcement. 
 
GOVERNMENT PRESSURES FONSEKA 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) The government continued 
its pressure on Fonseka, as it continued to press claims that 
he had been plotting to assassinate President Rajapaksa while 
staying (under heavy military and police cordon) at the 
Cinnamon Lakeside Hotel on January 27.  The manager of that 
hotel was questioned by CID detectives about Fonseka's 
actions while there.  Fonseka's campaign offices were raided 
) and 17 clerical and security staff detained - by police on 
the afternoon of January 29, and it appeared likely that 
Fonseka himself would soon be arrested.  (See ref. A for 
additional details on the government's position on Fonseka.) 
 
OPPOSITION PLANS PROTESTS 
------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) (Rel to UK, CAN, AUS, SWITZ.) The UNP and JVP have 
called for their supporters to engage in "civil disobedience" 
beginning on February 3, in protest of what they see as the 
fraudulent presidential polling.  It is unclear to what 
extent this call will be heeded or what the government's 
reaction will be.  The government had banned all 
demonstrations for a seven-day period after the election, but 
that ban would appear to expire before this planned protest. 
BUTENIS