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RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0074
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1348

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000016 
 
SIPDIS 
 
GENEVA FOR RMA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  2/19/2020 
TAGS: PREL PHUM PREF MOPS MARR BM TH
SUBJECT: KAREN STATE UPDATE 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000016  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
Summary and Comment 
 
-------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶1.  (C) According to the Karen National Union (KNU), which 
continues its armed struggle against Burma's military regime, it 
has agreed on the terms of a defensive military alliance with 
two other armed groups - the Kachin Independence Army (KIA-a 
ceasefire group) and Chin National Army.  Talks aimed at 
expanding the pact to include other groups are on-going.  We can 
also confirm that a DRL-funded health clinic in Karen State was 
entirely burned down in a recent attack.  According to our 
contacts, attacks during January and February have displaced 
4,000 Karen, who are now in hiding on the Burma side of the 
border.  Unlike past years, our contacts have not observed any 
large-scale Burma Army troop movements in Karen State.  They 
attribute this to what they claim is a focus within the Burmese 
regime and military on planning for the upcoming elections.  End 
Summary and Comment. 
 
 
 
Defensive Alliance Agreed 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (C) According to the KNU's head of intelligence Isaac Po, 
who recently traveled to China with other ethnic leaders, the 
KNU, KIA, and CNA have agreed on the terms of a defensive 
military alliance.  Po stated the alliance is not designed to be 
offensive in nature, but he did not rule out the possibility of 
the groups working together against Burma Army targets.  He also 
hinted that the alliance could lead to broader political 
cooperation, though not in the very short term.  According to 
Po, KIA leaders he met in China told him the Army has 20,000 
troops adequately armed (Embassy Rangoon notes KIA strength is 
usually estimated around 6,000 troops.)  , and could recruit an 
additional 10,000 if necessary. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (C) Po told us he also travelled to Shan state to meet with 
leaders of armed groups.  He said many of them discussed the 
possibility of joining the alliance among the KNU, CNA and KIA 
during Shan National Day celebrations February 4-6, but did not 
reach an agreement.  Po said he hopes to hold more talks with 
the Shan about this on an as yet unspecified date. 
 
 
 
What's Going on in Karen State? 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Separately, we spoke to Free Burma Rangers (FBR) 
contacts, who told us that attacks in January and February by 
the Burma Army and DKBA (Democratic Karen Buddhist Army - a KNU 
splinter group allied with the Burma Army) have resulted in 
4,000 IDPs, all of whom remain in hiding on the Burma side of 
the border.  The attacks are taking place in northeast 
Nyanglabin District, according to FBR.  FBR also told us that 
TBBC (The Thailand-Burma Border Consortium), COERR (Catholic 
Organization for Emergency Relief and Reconstruction), and 
Partners (A Chiang Mai-based NGO) were providing relief to the 
IDPs. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) FBR also confirmed that a health clinic in Karen State 
was entirely burned down on February 8.  (Note: We understand 
the clinic received funding from DRL.)  An FBR team at the site 
reported that the clinic in question was co-located with the 
headquarters of a KNLA battalion.  The attacking troops found 
and seized a stash of medicine medics had succeeded in removing 
from the clinic before it was destroyed, according to FBR.  No 
casualties were reported at the clinic as a result of the 
attack, but the clinic's staff and the FBR medics working with 
them report a shortage of medicine and other supplies.  (Note: 
Embassy Rangoon learned from Alan Saw U, coordinator of the 
Karen Development Network, that the attack appeared to be in 
retaliation for a surprise "hit-and-run" attack by the KNU on BA 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000016  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
troops that had occurred a few days earlier.  Following the 
KNU-initiated attack, the BA mobilized approximately 200 troops 
and looked for the KNU troops.  Alan Saw U reported that when 
the BA troops could not find the KNU troops, they attacked the 
easiest target they could find, which happened to be the mobile 
health clinic.  End note.) 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) According to both the KNU and FBR, the Burma Army has 
not executed any large-scale troop movements during this dry 
season - a break with past practice.  Nonetheless, small-scale 
attacks, pillaging and burning continue, particularly in 
Nyanglabin District, they assert.  According to FBR, the Burma 
Army is now delegating attacks in certain areas entirely to the 
DKBA, and is employing the same tactic in parts of Shan State. 
In one incident on February 17, the DKBA crossed the Thai border 
and killed a Thai citizen of Karen dissent in Nong BUa village, 
Tha Song Yang district, allegedly over a business dispute, 
according to FBR.   The commander of the local army ranger unit 
confirmed the murder to Embassy Bangkok, and stated that the 
three DKBA soldiers involved fled across the border. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) FBR also reports that the KNLA's Third Brigade is 
increasingly exercising control over the gold trade in its area 
of operation.  FBR contacts opined that the KNLA is using the 
proceeds to purchase weapons in Thailand, but could not confirm 
this.  FBR also reported that approximately 200 fighters have 
defected from the KNU/KNLA Peace Council (a ceasefire group) 
back to the KNLA over the past three months. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Bangkok and 
Rangoon. 
MORROW