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RR RUEHAO RUEHNG RUEHRS
DE RUEHCV #0173/01 0422213
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 112213Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0448
INFO OPEC COLLECTIVE
WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000173 
 
SIPDIS 
ENERGY FOR ALOCKWOOD AND LEINSTEIN, DOE/EIA FOR MCLINE 
HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
TREASURY FOR MKACZMAREK 
COMMERCE FOR 4332/MAC/WH/JLAO 
NSC FOR DRESTREPO AND LROSSELLO 
OPIC FOR BSIMONEN-MORENO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG ECON AMGT EINV ABLD AEMR VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: Chavez Declares Electricity State of Emergency 
 
REF: 10 CARACAS 151; 10 CARACAS 139; 10 CARACAS 35; 09 CARACAS 1475 
09 CARACAS 1367; 09 CARACAS 1318 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Speaking on national cadena (mandatory television 
and radio coverage of a presidential speech) around 5 p.m. on 
February 8, President Chavez emitted decree Number 7,228 declaring 
an electricity state of emergency and naming an "electricity 
general staff."  Returning to national cadena at 11:00 p.m. the 
same night, Chavez announced electricity tariff fines for users 
that do not reduce consumption over the next sixty days as well as 
tariff discounts for those that do.  Other electricity rationing 
measures across Venezuela remain in place.  The government hopes 
the rationing will extend the time the Guri hydroelectric plant can 
operate assuming seasonal rains do not begin to replenish water 
behind the dam.  According to statistics published February 8, 
Venezuelan electricity consumption grew 4.55% in 2009.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
The Electricity State of Emergency 
 
¶2. (U) President Chavez claimed that 46% of Venezuela's electricity 
consumption derives from the private sector, 25% residential, 17% 
the public sector, and 12% "social residences."  He said, "This 
reflects the capitalist model.  The great inequality.  This is why 
we have to progressively change it."  He designated residential 
users consuming more than 500 KWH of electricity as high volume 
users and mandated that they reduce consumption by 10% effective 
February 9 or face penalties (using the corresponding month in 2009 
as the baseline).  Chavez also claimed that 24% of residential 
consumers in Caracas meet the 500 KWH threshold.  [NOTE: An energy 
specialist speaking on Globovision's "Alo Ciudadano" ("Good Morning 
Citizen") program noted that only 50% of Caracas consumers have 
electricity meters making it hard to measure consumption.  The 
specialist said that almost all households consume more than 500 
KWH.  END NOTE]  The announcement carried the following provisions 
to incentivize electricity savings: 
 
 
 
B7         Failure to reduce consumption by 10% will result in a 75% 
charge to the monthly bill, 
 
B7         Consumption increases greater than 10% will be fined by 
100% of the monthly bill, 
 
B7         Consumption increases greater than 20% will be fined by 
200% of the electricity bill, 
 
B7         Consumption decreases of 10-20% will receive a 25% 
discount, and 
 
B7         Consumption decreases greater than 20% will receive a 50% 
discount from the bill. 
 
 
 
Press reports of the President's statement did not include 
incentives for decreasing consumption up to 10%.  [NOTE: 
Electricity tariffs in Caracas have not changed since 2002.  END 
NOTE]  The same incentive plan will be applied to commercial users 
consuming more than 25 KW.  Commercial users that do not comply in 
the first month will be issued a warning.  If they continue to 
violate the required reduction in consumption, electricity service 
will be cut for 23-48 hours.  A third transgression will result in 
the permanent suspension of electricity service.  These measures 
are in addition to mandatory electricity rationing (i.e., rolling 
blackouts) already in place outside Caracas.  [NOTE: A rationing 
plan in Caracas was repealed by President Chavez on January 13, 
less than 24 hours after being implemented.  END NOTE.]  Chavez 
 
CARACAS 00000173  002 OF 003 
 
 
clarified, however, that the measures would not apply to the 
sanitation, health, fuel distribution, or security sectors. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) According to President Chavez, the declaration of an 
electricity emergency: 
 
 
 
B7         Grants extraordinary powers to Electricity Minister Ali 
RodrC-guez to decree exceptional measures that he deems necessary to 
ensure the population's electricity supply. 
 
B7         Charges RodrC-guez along with Planning and Finance 
Minister Jorge Giordani with designing and executing necessary 
measures to ensure that public and private entities pay their debts 
to the state-owned electricity utilities. 
 
B7         Orders the national electricity holding company 
(Corpolec) and its utility subsidiaries to accelerate timelines and 
execution of work related to the expansion of the nation's 
electricity infrastructure and to adopt measures needed to 
guarantee continued electricity service. 
 
B7         Permits Corpolec, with the permission of the Electricity 
Ministry, to enter into agreements with independent electricity 
providers to purchase electricity.  [NOTE: The Bolivarian Republic 
of Venezuela (GBRV) nationalized most of the domestic electrical 
sector in 2007.  END NOTE] 
 
B7         Calls on all levels of government to eliminate any 
non-authorized connections to the national grid. 
 
B7         Instructs the Electricity Ministry to produce a registry 
of entities that have a capacity to generate electricity. 
 
B7         NOTE: Under Venezuelan law, a declaration of a state of 
emergency removes the requirement that government entities follow 
the regulations of the Public Law on Contracting.  END NOTE. 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) President Chavez also announced the establishment of an 
"Electricity General Staff" including, Vice-President Elias Jaua, 
Ministers RodrC-guez and Giordani, Minister of Energy & Petroleum 
Rafael Ramirez, and Minister of Basic Industry and Mining Rodolfo 
Sanz.  Chavez charged this group with reviewing proposals submitted 
by the technical commissions sent by Argentina, Brazil, and Cuba 
and offers received from Chinese, Russian, and European businesses 
and their respective governments.  Finally, Chavez claimed that he 
would publish a list of 8,000 large consumers located in Caracas. 
 
 
 
The Reason for the Emergency -- Guri's Steady Descent 
 
¶5. (U) According to data published by the GBRV Office of National 
Electricity System Management (CNG), the water level in the 
reservoir of the critically important Guri dam was 265.77 meters 
above sea level (MSNM by its Spanish acronym) on November 1, 2009. 
By February 1, 2010 it had fallen to 258.08 MSNM.  The Guri 
reservoir levels are critical as once it hits 240 MSNM the 
hydroelectric system will start to fail, effectively eliminating 
about 70% of Venezuela's electricity generating capacity (until 
water levels are restored).  In the following graph of Guri's water 
levels (CNG data), EconOff added the linear trendline (an Excel 
function) in mid-January.  At that point, it appeared as if Guri's 
water levels would not decline to critical levels in May.  On 
February 2, Econoff added the red line reflecting the impact of a 
recent acceleration of decreases in Guri's water levels.  This 
trend suggests water levels will drop to the critical 240 MSNM 
level by the beginning of June (unless rain significantly 
replenishes the Guri reservoir before then).  Historically, the 
advent of the rainy season in May reverses declines in the 
 
CARACAS 00000173  003 OF 003 
 
 
reservoir's levels. 
 
 
 
cid:image003.png@01CAAB41.8F72CD90 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) At a diplomatic event the evening of February 10, the 
Brazilian DCM told us that a Brazilian technical commission had 
just assessed that there is five months of water behind the dam. 
The commission also believed that it could provide technical 
assistance to the GBRV which would allow the generation of more 
electricity from Guri without the use of more water, thus extending 
for 40 days the period before the dam would have to shut down.  In 
contrast, the Russian DCM at the same event said that a visiting 
Russian commission had reached the conclusion that there were no 
realistic short term measures to avert a crisis if water fell below 
minimum levels at the Guri dam.  By contrast, senior Central 
University of Venezuela (UCV) professors told EconOff on February 
10, that based on confidential electricity system data they had the 
Guri reservoir would hit critical levels in April.  The Brazilian 
commission confirmed that Venezuela only has 17 GW of available 
capacity and needs to add 4 GW of capacity to the system [NOTE: 
Venezuela has an installed capacity of 23.65 GW - 14 GW of 
hydroelectric and nearly 9.65 GW of thermal electric.  Only 12.8 GW 
of installed hydroelectric capacity is currently available and 4.9 
GW of thermal electric installed capacity is available.  END NOTE.] 
 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: There is no consensus on how soon a crisis might 
occur, but there is consensus that sometime between April and July 
one will transpire stemming from the possible shut-down of the Guri 
hydroelectric plant.  In the meantime, there appear to be no short 
term measures to avert severe rationing if rain does not begin to 
refill the Guri basin in the next four to five months.  This is 
just about the time when heavy rain is expected in the Amazon basin 
which feeds the Caroni river and Guri dam.  The collapse of Guri 
could profoundly affect nearly every aspect of life in Venezuela. 
Chavez's announcement effectively implements rationing in Caracas - 
although not the rolling blackouts associated with the failed 
January plan - and is intended to extend the time Guri can generate 
power, assuming there is no rain.  END COMMENT. 
DUDDY