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DE RUEHBU #0089/01 0432007
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 122007Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0512
INFO MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000089 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2035/02/12 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AR
SUBJECT: (C) Argentina: Nestor Kirchner Down, but Not Out 
 
REF: BUENOS AIRES 75 AND PREVIOUS; BUENOS AIRES 61 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: VilmaSMartinez, Ambassador, DOS, Exec; REASON: 1.4(B), 
(D) 
 
¶1. (C)  Summary:  Former President and first spouse Nestor Kirchner 
(NK) is recuperating after undergoing emergency surgery for a 
partially blocked carotid artery.  NK underwent a carotid 
endarterectomy, which involved temporarily introducing a shunt in 
his artery to redirect the blood flow to the brain and past the 
obstruction in order to repair the damaged artery.  Argentine 
medical specialists predict a rapid recovery period, but caution 
that NK will need to take preventive steps, including trying to 
reduce his stress levels, a tall order for this consummate 
micromanager and political strategist.  While NK may take his 
doctors' advice and reduce his public appearances in February, we 
expect to see him again in March when Congress reconvenes.  Since 
the surgery, the Casa Rosada has portrayed a resilient Nestor, but 
some, even within his own party, perceive his political days are 
numbered.  Despite wishful thinking from political opponents, it is 
still too early to count Nestor Kirchner out of the presidential 
race in 2011.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Nestor's Health Scare 
 
--------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (C)  The Casa Rosada, and Mission sources with direct access, 
report that former President and first spouse Nestor Kirchner (NK) 
is recovering well after undergoing emergency surgery for a blocked 
carotid artery on February 7.  NK's health setback followed several 
intense political days for the First Couple due to the Central Bank 
saga (ref A) and speculations that NK used insider information to 
profit on the international currency market (ref B).  Press reports 
indicate that mid-day February 7 NK began experiencing tingling and 
numbness in his left arm after exercising on the treadmill. 
(According to our Regional Medical Officer, these symptoms are 
symptomatic of a stroke.)  NK underwent a carotid endarterectomy, 
which temporarily introduced a shunt in his artery to redirect 
blood flow to the brain and repair the blocked artery.  After the 
nearly hour-long surgery, NK remained in intensive care until late 
morning February 9 and was released from the hospital February 10. 
Upon leaving the hospital, a drained and pale-looking NK told 
reporters that he was feeling "100 percent."  The front page of 
paper-of-record "La Nacion" carried a photo of NK leaving the 
hospital, which prominently displayed his deep carotid scar. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (C) Undoubtedly, NK's health scare caused considerable stress 
for the President, who is highly dependent upon NK as her principal 
adviser.  (The episode was also probably reminiscent for CFK of 
2004 when NK, then Argentina's president, was hospitalized for 
gastric hemorrhaging.  At the time, there were rumors that part of 
his colon was removed because cancer was detected.  In October 
2009, rumors resurfaced that again he had been hospitalized for 
reasons varying from an irritable bowel to cardiac problems.)  CFK 
stayed close by his side from the moment he began exhibiting 
symptoms and remained overnight at the hospital, according to press 
reports.  Late into the night, the President was accompanied by the 
couple's two children, Maximo and Florencia, in addition to Chief 
of Cabinet Anibal Fernandez, Senate President Pro Tempore Jose 
Pampuro, Legal Secretary Carlos Zannini, and Foreign Minister Jorge 
Taiana, according to press reports. 
 
 
 
The Medical Take 
 
---------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (C) The Regional Medical Officer (RMO) assesses that given NK's 
relatively speedy release, it appears that his doctors addressed 
the problem in time.  With a mild stroke, generally there is no 
long-term impairment.  Nonetheless, the RMO notes that NK could 
have suffered some loss of brain tissue and functioning, but it is 
still too early to determine long-term damage.  Local Argentine 
doctors predict that NK will recover rapidly, but note that he 
needs to take steps to prevent another episode, such as taking 
anti-clotting medication and reducing his stress.  Deputy director 
of Argentina's Secretariat of Intelligence (SIDE) Francisco Larcher 
told Embassy officers February 10 that NK would face several 
 
restrictions.  He said NK would need to tighten his (already 
strictly controlled) dietary regimen by eliminating salt; monitor 
his blood pressure; and take an aspirin daily.  ("La Nacion" 
reported February 8 that prior to the episode NK was known to take 
multiple aspirins daily.)  In addition, he will have to dial back 
his exercise plan for a while, easing back into it by walking a 
little each day. 
 
 
 
Business as Usual for the Casa Rosada 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C)  Since the surgery, CFK and Casa Rosada spokespersons have 
portrayed government activities continuing as normal and NK 
recovering rapidly.  To that end, the day after the surgery, CFK 
made an unplanned appearance at a grocery store's inauguration. 
She assured the crowd that NK was doing well and that he was in 
"perfect condition" to resume leadership of the Peronist party in 
March.  She reportedly maintained a full agenda on February 9 and 
during a Casa Rosada event that day quipped: "we have Kirchner for 
a little longer" after confirming that he had been released from 
intensive care.  Additionally, at a February 11 public rally to 
inaugurate the taxi union's new headquarters, CFK put NK's health 
into soccer terms, stating: "Nestor Kirchner never left the field 
nor will he leave the field; he is on the bench a few days because 
he is injured." 
 
 
 
Muted Public Reaction 
 
--------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C)  Public reaction to NK's health scare has been muted, 
perhaps as a result of early assurances from government sources 
that the procedure was basic and had gone well.  NK's well-wishers 
were evident in large numbers, but his scare did not appear to 
generate a deep non-partisan wave of sympathy or concern.  There 
were reports (and, from government-allied media, criticism) of 
chain-mails on the Internet celebrating Kirchner's health problems 
and expressing the desire that he die. 
 
 
 
The Caged Lion 
 
-------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C)  NK, who thrives on politics, will almost certainly be a 
difficult patient.  Press reports indicate that shortly after the 
operation he was antsy to leave the hospital and resume his 
routine.  Left-leaning, government-allied "Pagina 12" described him 
as feeling like a caged lion.  "La Nacion" noted that after leaving 
the hospital he received a "dossier" with the latest political and 
economic updates.  The paper notes that the joke circulating Casa 
Rosada halls was "the same Nestor is back, he has started calling 
everyone."  SIDE deputy director Larcher, who visited him at the 
hospital on February 10, told Ambassador Martinez that NK was 
receiving a number of people in his hospital room.  Foreign 
Minister Taiana, one of the first to see NK after his surgery, told 
the Ambassador that NK was recuperating and in good spirits. 
Taiana said that while NK is eager to get back into the swing of 
things, if he were him he would take it easy, but that is not NK's 
style. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (C)  While NK may heed his doctors' advice and maintain a low 
profile in February, we can expect to see him again in March.  High 
on NK's agenda is attending the opening session of Congress March 1 
and resuming the presidency of the Peronist party during a March 10 
ceremony in Chaco province.  (NK resigned from the presidency 
following his slate's second place finish in Buenos Aires province 
in the June 2009 midterms.  He and his party followers argue that 
he now can resume the presidency because his resignation was never 
formally accepted by the party.) 
 
An Uphill Battle for 2011? 
 
-------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  (C)  Despite the Casa Rosada's public manifestations of NK's 
resilience, the image of a physically debilitated NK appears to be 
signaling to some that his political days are numbered.  The 
director of Banco Mariva, Enrique Antonini, told EconCouns February 
9 that the business community's immediate reaction was that NK's 
health episode would increase the calculation among the strong 
Peronist mayors of Buenos Aires province that they cannot win with 
the Kirchners in the 2011 presidential race.  As a result, the 
mayors will further distance themselves from the Kirchners, 
Antonini predicted.  Additionally, a day after the surgery, one of 
NK's key challengers for the Peronist party presidential 
nomination--Santa Fe Senator Carlos Reutemann--quipped to 
journalists that "when they go in 2011...Argentines will be happy." 
While he later said his message was directed toward General 
Confederation of Labor Secretary General (and staunch Kirchner 
ally) Hugo Moyano, Reutemann's comments suggest he too believes 
NK's political prospects are diminishing. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶10.  (C)  Despite wishful thinking from the Kirchners' political 
opponents, it is still too early to count Nestor Kirchner out of 
the 2011 presidential race.  While his political drive will 
continue to test the limits of his physical capabilities, NK has a 
track record of bouncing back from health scares.  As long as NK 
maintains his mental faculties, he will remain a force to be 
reckoned with on the road to 2011. 
MARTINEZ