VZCZCXRO4259
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHSL #0064/01 0470958
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 160958Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0415
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHSL/AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA 0480

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000064 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM LO
SUBJECT: INTRODUCTION TO JUNE 12 NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
 
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¶1. (U) Summary. Parliamentary elections will be held in Slovakia 
on June 12. It is all but certain that Smer-Social Democracy, 
the party of current Prime Minister Robert Fico, will win the 
largest share of the votes. Recent opinion polls showed support 
for Smer around 40 percent, while no other party has surpassed 
20 percent support in the last four years. Post-election 
coalition possibilities for Smer vary from more of the same to 
partnership with a center-right party.  Because coalition 
forming will depend on post-election math, it is difficult to 
predict. Slovak politics is more a competition of personalities 
than ideas, however, and the leading parties are pragmatic, not 
ideological. In septels over the coming months, Post will 
describe the main parties, players and issues in greater detail. 
End summary. 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) Elections are conducted on the basis of a universal, 
equal and direct electoral franchise, by means of secret ballot, 
and in accordance with the principle of proportional 
representation. Candidates for Parliamentary office must be 
citizens of the Slovak Republic, at least twenty-one years of 
age and eligible to vote on polling day, with permanent 
residence in the Slovak Republic. Judges, prosecutors, public 
defenders of rights, members of the Armed Forces, members of 
Armed Corps, or members of the European Parliament may not run 
for parliament. The territory of the Slovak Republic constitutes 
a single electoral constituency. 
 
 
 
The elections 
 
------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) Elections are held over the course of one day. Citizens 
over the age of 18 may cast votes outside their city of 
residence with prior notice, or by post from outside Slovakia. 
Citizens choose from lists of candidates submitted by registered 
political parties. These lists, not to exceed 150 names each, 
are submitted to the Central Electoral Commission at least 
ninety days before polling day. 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) In addition to a vote for a party, each voter can also 
pick up to four "preferential candidates" from the respective 
party list. Thus, any candidate with at least 3,000 preferential 
votes could move up the list (rank-ordered by preferential 
votes), even if the party had originally put him/her towards the 
bottom of the list. 
 
 
 
Allocation of seats 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) The sum of valid votes cast on election day is divided by 
151 (the number of Parliamentary seats plus one). The result of 
this division rounded off to a whole number is the party's 
republic electoral number. The sum of each party's votes is 
divided by the republic electoral number to determine the number 
of seats each party obtains. In the event the total seats thus 
calculated equals 151, the party with the lowest remainder loses 
a seat. If the total seats allocated equals 149, the party with 
the highest remainder gains a seat. 
 
 
 
Rules for the Campaign 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Officially, the campaign begins 21 days before polling 
day when broadcasting of (explicitly) political advertisements 
may begin. Slovak public television and Slovak Radio are 
obligated to set aside no more than ten hours of broadcasting 
time for political advertisements, which shall be allocated to 
competing parties with no single party receiving more than 
thirty minutes. A further ten hours of broadcasting time is to 
be set aside by the public media for discussion programs. 
Licensed commercial broadcasters are not obligated to carry 
political advertisements, but if they choose to do so are 
 
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subject to the same maximum limits of thirty minutes per party 
and ten hours total. Election campaigns and advertising can 
continue through election day; however, poll results must not be 
published after the polls open.  Parties have no limits on how 
much they can spend on their campaigns. 
 
 
 
The parties 
 
----------- 
 
 
 
Party acronyms: 
 
 
 
SMER-SD -- Robert Fico's 'Direction' 
 
 
 
SDKU-DS -- Mikulas Dzurinda's Democratic and Christian Union 
 
 
 
HZDS-LS -- Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a Democratic Slovakia 
 
 
 
KDH -- Jan Figel's Christian Democratic Movement 
 
 
 
SNS -- Jan Slota's Slovak National Party 
 
 
 
SMK -- Pal Csaky's Hungarian Coalition Party 
 
 
 
MOST-HID -- Bela Bugar's 'Bridge' 
 
 
 
SaS -- Richard Sulik's Freedom and Solidarity Party 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Recent opinion polls indicate that these eight parties 
will likely gain the five percent of valid votes cast necessary 
to enter parliament. Smer leads the polls with nearly 40 percent 
support. The main opposition party, SKDU, usually comes second 
in polls with 10-15 percent support while the other parties poll 
at between 4 and 10 percent. The next governing coalition is 
most likely, therefore, to include Smer and two partners. The 
post-election day "mathematics" of coalition formation will be 
at least as important as the vote itself.  There are several 
possible post-election scenarios, but almost anything is 
possible and Smer has so far refused to rule out cooperation 
with any party. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Before the current government of Smer, SNS, and HzDS 
was formed in 2006, we described such a coalition as the 
"nightmare scenario."   Smer, by contrast, has seemed fairly 
comfortable with the arrangement despite occasional grumbling 
from party insiders about both partners.  HZDS is viewed as more 
difficult, but the more pliant SNS appears to have become a 
greater liability.  Corruption scandals and the nasty, 
anti-Hungarian rhetoric of its party leaders, particularly 
Chairman Jan Slota, have caused PM Fico international 
embarrassment best demonstrated by a three-year suspension of 
full membership rights in the Party of European Socialists (PES) 
grouping. We have heard that Smer had to promise not to form a 
new coalition with SNS in order to gain full membership in PES 
last year. If other suitable partners cannot be found, however, 
Fico would likely turn to HZDS and SNS again, and both would 
jump at the chance. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Although various parties have said publicly that they 
would rule out cooperation with one or another of their 
competitors, the only coalition that we find inconceivable would 
be one that includes SNS and either of the two ethnic Hungarian 
parties, SMK or Most-Hid.  The new center-right party of 
businessman Richard Sulik has said it would not go into 
 
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coalition with Smer since the imbalance of power would make SaS 
a mere puppet. Sulik is known to crave the position of Finance 
Minister, however, and in a coalition that included another 
center-right party we believe he would make a deal. 
EDDINS