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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 000189 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR EUR/CE PETER SCHROEDER 
STATE FOR OES/SAT RAYMOND CLORE AND DAVID TURNER 
STATE FOR ISN/MDSP DICK BUENNEKE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2035 
TAGS: ETTC PGOV PINR MCAP PREL TSPA FR RS CH GM
SUBJECT: ATHENA -- THE GERMAN GODDESS OF BALLISTIC MISSILE 
DEFENSE 
 
Classified By: Global Affairs David L. Fisher for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Bremen-based OHB-System is seeking a 
partnership with "like-minded" countries to develop and 
deploy a ballistic missile (BM) early warning/tracking 
satellite constellation, dubbed Athena, conceptually capable 
of accurately tracking northern latitude missiles from early 
launch through end-game impact.  OHB sees Athena as European 
industry's answer to the evolving threat arisen from the 
proliferation weapons of mass destruction (WMD) combined with 
BM delivery systems.  In particular, OHB desires to partner 
with U.S. industry on the Athena project to tap into the 
"billions the USG spends on BM defense" and firmly believes 
Athena would positively complement existing U.S. missile 
tracking systems.  On December 11, OHB-System Department Head 
for Security and Defense, Dr.-Ing Gerd Hofschuster, briefed 
Econoff and Embassy military attach on the Athena concept. 
END SUMMARY 
 
 
WATCHING BALLISTIC MISSILES FROM MT OLYMPUS 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) OHB touts Athena as a low-cost (500 million euro) BM 
warning/tracking satellite constellation with emphasis on 
anti-ballistic missile (ABM) radar cueing, a tool for treaty 
verification/armament control, and an effective means to 
enhance Space Situational Awareness (SSA).  Athena's system 
architecture calls for a 6-9 satellite constellation situated 
in a Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) equatorial ring.  Given that the 
threats like Iran, Syria, Pakistan, and North Korea, are 
situated in the northern hemisphere along with NATO partners, 
Athena's Field of View (FoV) is focused on mid-northern 
hemisphere latitude countries.  OHB said that for obvious 
political reasons, Russian territory would excluded from 
Athena observation. 
 
 
HOW IT WORKS - IT'S NOT ROCKET SCIENCE 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Hofschuster, who formerly worked as a BM analyst 
contractor for the German External Intelligence Service 
(BND), is OHB's principle project manager for Athena and has 
been granted a European patent for the system concept. 
Hofschuster said Athena's solution, at its core, is to 
utilize space-based infra-red (IR) observation to combine 
mid-range and long-range BM tracking techniques.  He said the 
satellites would have two "special" IR sensors; a 
boost-phase-detection (BPD) sensor and a mid-course-tracker 
(MCT) sensor.  The BPD sensor would continuously scan 
geographic areas of interest for thermal signatures 
resembling a possible rocket launch event.  Hofschuster 
boasted with confidence that Athena would be able to 
accurately detect all BM launches within its FoV without 
false positives within 30 km of altitude post-launch. 
 
¶4.  (C) Once the BPD has affirmatively located a 
missile/object of interest, the MCT kicks in and stays with 
the object until end-game impact.  During the MCT stage, 
multiple Athena satellites simultaneously track the object of 
interest, which would allow for three-dimensional (3D) 
triangulation of the object's trajectory.  During this 
process, Athena satellites would maintain a communication 
link with a data relay satellite in geo-synchronous orbit 
(GEO), which would in turn downlink the data to a dedicated 
ground station.  From the ground station, OHB says the 
derived Athena data could be used to cue surface BM radar, 
which illuminate targets for ABMs.  Hofschuster said this 
entire process would occur in near-real-time, and the 
tracking update rate would be one Hz. 
 
BERLIN 00000189  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Hofschuster said the real magic with Athena rests 
with space-based overhead observation combined with advanced 
algorithms and data processing techniques --  simple IR 
illumination is not enough.  He said the trick is to use 
pre-defined thermal topography maps overlaid with Athena 
captured data (BPD) and utilizing change detection techniques 
to identify thermal anomalies.  Once a thermal anomaly is 
spotted, it is isolated by blacking out all thermal images 
around it.  After a short assessment period, if the anomaly 
persistently exhibits signs of a ballistic trajectory, the 
object is tracked until end-game. 
 
¶6.  (C) Once tracking is underway, Hofschuster said the 
object will continue to be tracked even after the rocket 
engine burn terminates.  He said this is an important feature 
in that it allows Athena to track both staged liquid fuel 
rockets and faster burning solid fuel rockets without 
interruption.  Another area of concern is tracking of 
multiple BM events and multiple re-entry vehicles. 
Hofschuster said this problem has also been solved through 
data processing techniques and claimed that through extensive 
worst case scenario simulations, Athena was able to track 100 
simultaneous BM events without saturation.  He added that 
Athena would maintain tracking lock on non-ballistic 
re-entries, such as atmospheric range extension maneuvers or 
evasive maneuvering. 
 
 
SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND TREATY VERIFICATION 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶7.  (C) OHB claims that Athena could catalogue all satellites 
in LEO within 20 minutes using its mid-course tracker. 
Athena satellites would contain a continuously updated 
(uplinked) on-board catalogue of all space objects, which 
would allow Athena to use change detection techniques to 
recognize new sizable objects/satellites in LEO.  Hofschuster 
added that Athena would not be limited to monitoring BM 
flights, but would also be able to detect development 
activities such as engine tests and flight tests making it a 
useful tool for treaty verification and monitoring of 
dangerous armament programs. 
 
 
CHINA GOT A LITTLE BM HELP FROM RUSSIA 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Hofschuster said when he was analyzing BM flight data 
for the BND, he spoke very proudly of his role in determining 
that back in 2000 Russian rocket scientists very likely 
assisted China with its BM program.  He said the BND's 
pre-2000 analysis of Chinese BM tests concluded that China 
was having all kinds of problems with its multi-stage BM 
program and cited a 50% failure rate.  However, he said after 
some help from the Russians, the Chinese post-2000 BM success 
rate went up to nearly 100%.  Hofschuster did not provide any 
details about how exactly the BND knew Russian scientists 
were assisting the Chinese BM program, but spoke very 
confidently that the Russians were in fact there.  He said 
the Chinese likely had to swallow their pride by asking the 
Russians for help, but likely had little choice due to 
massive setbacks resultant from the frequent failures. 
 
 
A CALL FOR PARTNERS 
------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Hofschuster emphasized that the genesis of Athena 
came about as a BM warning solution for Europe and for 
European deployed forces, but OHB believes Athena would have 
a lot to offer partners on the other side of the Atlantic. 
 
BERLIN 00000189  003 OF 003 
 
 
He made a strong pitch for joint US/German cooperation on 
Athena and said the program could easily work itself into a 
NATO or US/German/French framework.  OHB is also leaving the 
door open to possible cooperation with Russia in connection 
with its Ramos program.  Though Hofschuster admitted Athena 
is largely conceptual, he said the transition to an 
operational satellite constellation would be straight 
forward.  Elaborating, he said the basic instrument 
technology is already available and the Athena satellite bus 
would be based on OHB's already flying SAR-Lupe architecture. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  (C) OHB clearly believes in the Athena concept and the 
work of Dr. Hofschuster, but it also realizes that this 
program has little to no commercial prospects and would be 
dependent on government funding.  In addition, OHB knows that 
Germany would certainly not foot the bill alone and it would 
be very difficult to raise the money from its European 
partners.  OHB sees the U.S. as a promising partner given its 
comparably large defense budget and priorities on BM defense. 
 However, until funding can be arranged to start bending 
metal, Athena will likely remain mythology stuck in the world 
of simulations. 
Delawie