VZCZCXRO1548
RR RUEHAG RUEHLZ
DE RUEHRL #0177/01 0421538
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111538Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6535
INFO RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 2015
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0744
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1260
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 2761
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1777
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0938
RHMFIUU/HQ USAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//J5 DIRECTORATE (MC)//
RHMFISS/CDRUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE
RUZEADH/UDITDUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 BERLIN 000177 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PAPD, EUR/PPA, EUR/CE, INR/EUC, INR/P, 
SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A 
 
VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA 
 
"PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE" 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.0. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IR EMS EMS UP START PTER SF ECON
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAN, GREECE-EU, GREECE-EURO, UKRAINE, 
START, SWIFT, AFGHANISTAN-GERMANY, SOUTH AFRICA, U.S.-BUDGET;BERLIN 
 
¶1.   Lead Stories Summary 
¶2.   (Iran)   Nuclear Program, Opposition 
¶3.   (Greece Financial Crisis)   Germany, France Rescue Efforts 
¶4.   (Greece Financial Crisis)   Long-term Prognosis for Euro 
¶5.   (Ukraine)   Aftermath of Elections 
¶6.   (U.S.-Russia)   START Talks 
¶7.   (U.S.-EU)   SWIFT 
¶8.   (Afghanistan)   German Role, Kunduz Air Strike 
¶9.   (South Africa)   20th Anniversary of Revolution 
¶10.   (U.S.)   Budget Deficit 
 
 
¶1.   Lead Stories Summary 
 
ZDF-TV's primetime newscast Heute opened with Colonel Klein's 
testimony to the Bundestag investigation committee on the September 
4 airstrikes.  ARD-TV's primetime newscast Tagesschau led with 
Foreign Minister Westerwelle's address to the Bundestag, 
highlighting that the German government now defines the situation in 
Afghanistan as an "armed conflict," which is an attempt to redefine 
the legal standard to be applied in reviewing actions by German 
soldiers.  Most newspapers led with stories saying that the EU is 
considering helping Greece overcome its financial crisis.  Berliner 
Zeitung and Tagesspiegel led with today's beginning of the Berlin 
film festival "Berlinale."  Editorials focused on the EU's 
deliberations about helping Greece, the German debate about 
Afghanistan and the aftermath of the Constitutional Court's ruling 
on social benefits. 
 
¶2.   (Iran)   Nuclear Program, Opposition 
 
Berliner Zeitung (2/11) headlined: "Obama's change in the policy on 
Iran - U.S. government desires strict UN sanctions and imposes first 
punishments," noting in the intro: "The policy of reaching out is 
over.  In the nuclear dispute with Iran, the U.S. is pushing for 
tougher UN sanctions if the regime of President Ahmadinejad sticks 
to producing higher-grade uranium." 
 
Frankfurter Allgemeine (2/11) headlined "Obama threatens Tehran with 
new Sanctions," highlighting that "Obama said that a potential 
decision of the UN Security Council on a further tightening of 
existing international sanctions is only one aspect of it."  The 
paper adds: "He did not mention details of potential additional 
bilateral sanctions.   Obama said he is expecting a decision in the 
coming weeks.  At the same time, Obama emphasized that the door is 
still open for Tehran to change its policy." 
 
In an editorial, Frankfurter Allgemeine (2/11) noted: "An extended 
hand was the metaphor of 2009: President Obama is reaching out to 
the Muslim world, particularly Iran.  Obama almost flattered the 
leadership in Tehran.  When the first protests against the election 
fraud started last summer and the regime hit back, he showed 
restraint.  This restraint approach was heavily criticized at home. 
However, it was worth a try.  Today, Obama has to realize that 
nobody in Iran has taken his hand.  His assessment that it is clear 
that Iran is working on a nuclear bomb is an admission of this 
failure.  If the leadership in Iran believes that Obama would be an 
anti-Bush and responds only with niceties to the provocation, it 
will be mistaken.  His patience has a limit.  The topic of sanctions 
is now burning." 
 
N-TV (2/11) reported "serious clashes in Iran" on the day of the 
31st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution.  Die Welt reported that 
"today's 31st anniversary of the revolution will demonstrate how 
powerful the opposition still is.  Riots are feared....  Since the 
last large demonstration against the regime on December 26, the 
regime and the Revolutionary Guards have been showing strength and 
toughness.  A probably deceptive peace hangs over the city."  FT 
 
BERLIN 00000177  002 OF 006 
 
 
Deutschland (2/11) highlighted: "Iran detains opponents prior to the 
anniversary of the revolution," adding that: "New arrests are 
supposed to intimidate reformers." 
 
¶3.   (Greece Financial Crisis)   Germany, France Rescue Efforts 
 
All papers (2/11) carried extensive coverage of the crisis of the 
euro and Greece's financial problems.  Frankfurter Allgemeine 
carried a front-page headline: "Brussels and Berlin Draft Rescue 
Plans for Greece.' Sueddeutsche Zeitung headlined: "EU Will help 
Greece - If it Makes Greater Efforts to Make Savings."  The headline 
in Die Welt is: "EU: Greece Must Intensify Savings Efforts," while 
Financial Times Deutschland headlined: "Europe Liable for Greece." 
 
 
ARD-TV's late evening newscast Tagesthemen (2/10) commented: "Greece 
must pass through the vale of tears.  There is no other way out. 
Even if Greece left the euro zone, the situation would not become 
easier.  Nothing would convince the financial markets more than 
Greek efforts.  Europe must insist on such Greek efforts, also 
because it would be a clear signal to the others....  For the German 
chancellor, this is a test.  The Germans only reluctantly accepted 
the euro on the promise that the euro would become as stable as the 
D-mark.  The guarantee for this promise is that the rules governing 
the euro are valid.  If the chancellor allowed these rules to be 
changed, then she would have forfeited Germans' confidence [in the 
euro]." 
 
Frankfurter Allgemeine (2/11) judged in a front-page editorial under 
the headline: "The Last Anchor," that "Germany is still hesitating, 
but pressure is mounting.  The slogan of the European Commission is 
that Europe must help the Greeks.  This slogan is strongly backed by 
French President Sarkozy. To put it differently: Germany must pay 
Greece's debts. But the euro was not sold to the Germans this way. 
Before the D-mark was abolished, the Maastricht Treaty was signed, 
and it explicitly bans a member state of the Monetary Union from 
being liable for the debt of another member country.  If this 
central issue of finance policy stability is no longer valid, then 
the Maastricht Treaty, the Stability Pact and the debt ceiling in 
the German Basic Law are no longer valid the paper on which they 
were written.  And then the Germans will want the D-mark back.  At 
the EU summit in Brussels, Chancellor Merkel must demonstrate 
toughness to avoid the euro becoming weak." 
In the view of Berliner Zeitung (2/11), "nerves lay bare.  If Greece 
goes bust, Portugal, Spain and Italy could follow.  The loss of 
confidence in the euro might never be made up.  The German 
government has realized this, too.  All indications are that the 
Berlin government is willing to help the Greeks in a worst case 
scenario.  We may argue that German taxpayers' money should not be 
used to help another country resolve the chaos which it has brought 
on itself.  But Greece is not a foreign country, and a bankruptcy 
would be much more expensive than a rescue mission.  If push comes 
to shove, Greece cannot be dropped, whatever the costs would be." 
 
Tagesspiegel (2/11) argued: "At the EU summit, all members must send 
a signal to Greece that Athens can count on the solidarity of 
Europeans.  One simple reason should be that hedge funds and 
investment banks would attack the weak countries.  And these will be 
the banks for whose rescue the states threw themselves into the 
breach a year ago.  But Germany in particular is opposed to a 
large-scale rescue operation.  Indeed, solidarity of the other EU 
states with Greece should not be too strong because the austerity 
course of Greek Premier Papandreou could otherwise with leveled.... 
But whether the stability of the Euro can be preserved with such 
appeals is totally uncertain.  This economic crisis has now reached 
the most important symbol of the Europeans: the common currency. 
They should defend it together." 
 
 
BERLIN 00000177  003 OF 006 
 
 
¶4.   (Greece Financial Crisis)   Long-term Prognosis for Euro 
 
Sueddeutsche Zeitung (2/11) carried an editorial under the headline: 
"To Pay for Greece - To Do Nothing Would Be Nice but There is No 
Alternative: Europe Must Help."  The daily noted: "The Europeans do 
not help Greece, at least not with money.  If the partner states 
want to pursue this course, next summer could become hot.  Highly 
indebted Greece has increasing difficulties getting money.  But if 
the country goes bankrupt, and be it as small and insignificant [as 
Greece], European and probably U.S. bonds would collapse too, and 
banks and financial actors far away from Greece would go to the 
wall....  But with quick and unbureaucratic assistance, Greece would 
get a necessary breather in the capital markets.  Such a rescue 
operation, however, is only marginally covered by European law, and 
the Europeans would then also risk the fate of the next candidates: 
Portugal, Ireland, and first of all Spain.  That is why a potential 
rescue operation must have 'thorns,' and it must really legally 
incapacitate Greece.  The pattern must be: Yes, the Europeans help, 
but the price for this assistance is gruesome.  Those who are able 
to do so should help themselves.  They should initiate the necessary 
structural reforms before Brussels forces them to do so." 
 
Rheinische Post of Dsseldorf editorialized: "The crisis about 
Greece is taking on the shape of a banking crisis. If creditors no 
longer buy Greek bonds, the country is bankrupt.  This is a real 
danger.  And if the EU countries do not help in a concerted action, 
the Greeks are threatened with insolvency.  Now a central flaw of 
the European Monetary Union is harshly coming to the fore because 
the treaty does not provide for the possibility of excluding a 
country from the euro zone because of its high indebtedness.  At the 
same time, billions for Greece are a devastating signal for the 
stability of the euro....  The only positive aspect is the 
appointment of currency hawk Papademos as EU commissioner for 
Greece, because a tough austerity policy for the country under the 
supervision of the creditors is the minimum that the EU must demand 
from the Greeks." 
 
Regional daily Der Neue Tag (2/11) judged: "Root of all evil is the 
mentality that has been raised by the governing political Karamanlis 
and Papanadreou families.  Each sides is pampering its supporters 
with tax donations and positions in the government,  Every fourth 
Greek works for the state, and the rest of the eleven million Greeks 
is exhausting itself by moonlighting, evading taxes and through 
nepotism....  Without verifiable efforts from Athens, the EU cannot 
offer any assistance.  Other candidates for bankruptcy are only 
waiting for such a false signal." 
 
¶5.   (Ukraine)   Aftermath of Elections 
 
"Ukrainian Seesaw," headlined Sueddeutsche Zeitung, and judged: 
"[The outcome of the elections] by no means signals that Ukraine 
will now turn to the East and turn away from the West because 
President-elect Yanukovich describes good relations with Moscow as 
the core piece of his foreign policy.  This is exactly what the 
governments in Berlin, Paris, London, and the EU in Brussels have 
demanded for a long time because a conflict between the two largest 
former Soviet Republics could quickly have an effect on the supply 
of natural gas and crude oil to Europe.  That is why Yanukovich's 
announcement should primarily clear the atmosphere between Moscow 
and Kiev.  But we can hardly expect Yanukovich to get back under 
Russia's political umbrella: first of all, because Ukrainian 
industrial tycoons do not want to become dependent on Russian large 
companies, and because a self-confident Ukrainian patriotism has 
developed in the eastern parts of the country, primarily because the 
young generation considers Kiev, not Moscow, the capital.  That is 
why Yanukovich will continue the seesaw course of his country 
between the West and the East.  If he succeeds in doing so more 
rationally than his predecessor, he will strengthen the sovereignty 
 
BERLIN 00000177  004 OF 006 
 
 
of his country." 
 
Frankfurter Allgemeine (2/11) opined under the headline: "False 
Signal," that "even three days after the end of the elections in 
Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich has not received congratulations from the 
West.  This is the false signal to the new man in Kiev but also to 
election loser Timochenko.  There are good reasons to be skeptical 
towards Yanukovich...but there is no reason to delay congratulations 
because the election was free and fair according to OSCE observers. 
The West should quickly make clear that he can count on western 
support if he sticks to democratic rules and implements his 
announcement that he wants to reform the economy and fight 
corruption.  And loser Timochenko must be unmistakably clear that a 
change of power is an essential part of democracy that would it 
would probably not exist without her." 
 
¶6.   (U.S.-Russia)   START Talks 
 
"Russian Calculation Logic," Is the headline of an editorial in 
Sueddeutsche Zeitung (2/11), arguing that "a successful follow-on 
agreement to the expiring START treaty would be important not only 
because it would make the world safer... but also because it would 
be a document for regained confidence for the much lauded new 
beginning between East and West.  But instead, a new beginning of 
the crisis is now looming.    Fired by Vladimir Putin's gruff 
address in Vladivostok in December, Russia's military leadership is 
now linking the disarmament treaty with the U.S. missile defense 
system.   And there is even more.  Only recently, President Medvedev 
approved the new Russian military doctrine...which is based on old 
Soviet rhetoric and is at best a game among conservative 
strategists....  For the West, it does not play any role whether 
President Medvedev is less liberal than he pretends or whether the 
president is sometimes not the master of the situation.  The current 
anti-NATO reflexes of the military leadership conspicuously coincide 
with Putin's inflammatory speech about the West.  If the prime 
minister gains the upper hand and if Russia really demands that a 
limited anti-missile defense system be included in the agreement, it 
might collapse, and Medvedev would massively lose credibility and 
influence in the West." 
 
¶7.   (U.S.-EU)   SWIFT 
 
Die Zeit (2/11) carried an editorial under the headline: "Too Many 
Questions," and opined: "What a chance! With a 'no' to the SWIFT 
agreement, the European Parliament (EP) could demonstrate that it 
not only has power but also knows how to use it. The majority of 
parliamentarians do not reject the agreement in principle but many 
take data protection much more seriously that the majority of EU 
leaders.  Even last summer, the members of the EP (MEPs) called for 
clear information on what is being done with banking data.  Until 
the last moment, it remained unclear how citizens and companies 
could defend themselves if information on their financial activities 
are examined without reason.  Another problem is the transfer of 
data to third states and even the question which information on 
deposits is transferred can still not be answered by the MEPS.  The 
MEPS should rest only once they have all this information and now 
they should vote 'no' on SWIFT to gain time.  The agreement in the 
current version leaves too many questions open:  A 'yes' would be 
irresponsible towards the voters." 
 
¶8.   (Afghanistan)   German Role, Kunduz Air Strike 
 
Deutschlandfunk radio (2/10) commented: "Is it still necessary to 
discuss what is going on in Afghanistan?  Legal experts apparently 
have to do this.  It is about the rights of soldiers.  But how about 
politicians?  They have been arguing about the words for months.... 
Our soldiers probably think they can't hear properly and shake their 
heads about the debate in the Bundestag... The situation in 
 
BERLIN 00000177  005 OF 006 
 
 
Afghanistan is so hopeless and inflexible that parliamentarians take 
refuge in political battles.  Pillow fights about the new strategy, 
a date for withdrawal or the 'corridor for withdrawal,' which the 
Social Democrats so bureaucratically discuss.  They are still 
hesitating but will probably pass the mandate in the end.  The 
investigation committee is only about giving the popular defense 
minister a real roasting.  Everything appears to be so helpless. 
The hope that the international mission can still create peace in 
the country is too small.   No dispute among parties over words and 
persons can conceal this helplessness.  Let's not deceive ourselves: 
there is a war going on in Afghanistan." 
 
Frankfurter Allgemeine (2/11) editorialized: "During the 
presentation of the Afghanistan mandate, Foreign Minister 
Westerwelle assured us that the German government has carefully 
examined the situation.  It now believes that the Bundeswehr mission 
in Afghanistan must be legally defined as 'an armed conflict in the 
sense of the international law.'  It has been overdue to give the 
public a realistic assessment of the situation.  Defense Minister zu 
Guttenberg was the first one to speak of 'war-like' circumstances 
shortly after he came to office.  The airstrike in Kunduz commanded 
by Colonel Klein, which the defense committee is currently 
investigating, has also certainly contributed to the new view on the 
mission.  What impact the government's redefinition of the mandate 
will actually have on the orders for the soldiers, their behavior 
and their legal responsibility remains unclear for the time being. 
The case in Kunduz could also be affected in retrospect." 
 
Sddeutsche (2/11) commented: "The new legal assessment of the 
conflict in Afghanistan was overdue.  It rightly makes politicians 
responsible for the mission.  Soldiers should not be concerned over 
the legality of their activities.  They should not have to consider 
the boundaries of the criminal law every time they make a minor 
decision.  In the future, international law will set the framework, 
not the German criminal law.  This does not mean that the soldiers 
are now allowed to shoot around like madmen.  The new legal 
framework will provide German soldiers protection - because the 
Afghan situation cannot be met with the German police law.  Those 
who must address an enemy combatant twice before they can fire a 
warning shot risk their lives.  Changing the legal situation already 
increases security." 
 
¶9.   (South Africa)   20th Anniversary of Revolution 
 
Die Welt (2/11) carried a front-page photo taken 20 years ago, 
showing Nelson Mandela and his wife after his release from 27 years 
in prison.  The headline of the caption is "the great liberation," 
adding that "At the Cape of Good Hope, the wall between black and 
white fell. Apartheid, a system built upon the segregation, broke 
down."  In an editorial, Die Welt remarked: "You don't get freedom 
for free.  The great democracies of England, France and the U.S. 
achieved it in revolutions and civil wars.  In some countries, 
freedom was the result of a lost war.  Others, like the Indians and 
the East Germans fought for it with peaceful means.  The case that 
an authoritarian ruler opens the window to freedom himself is very 
rare....  A freedom fighter can win everything and has little to 
lose.  For those in power it is the other way around....  During the 
first free elections, de Klerk was voted out of office.  He was 
probably fully aware of the fact that a completely new time was 
dawning that would leave nothing left of the old circumstances."  In 
a lengthy feature, Die Welt stated: "On February 11, 1990, Nelson 
Mandela was released from prison.  With that, a new epoch in South 
Africa began.  However, the fight for better living conditions for 
black people will go on for a long time." 
 
Under the headline "The black wise man," Berliner Zeitung (2/11) 
carried a report on Nelson Mandela, saying that "as the president he 
united South Africa after the regime of the Apartheid."  The report 
 
BERLIN 00000177  006 OF 006 
 
 
concluded: "Regardless all his achievements, the great reconciler 
made one mistake.  He once admitted that he failed to realize the 
extent of the Aids epidemic."   In an editorial, Berliner Zeitung 
stated: "What an incredibly happy moment it was today twenty years 
ago when Nelson Mandela walked out of the prison into the freedom at 
the side of his wife 20 years ago - on behalf for the black majority 
of the South Africans.  Also white South Africans were liberated 
that day - from the foolish doctrine that they are better than 
others.  Mandela's talent of reconciliation prevented an outbreak of 
violence and revenge.  Black and white people realized that they 
could live together in one country.  This is his achievement." 
 
¶10.   (U.S.)   Budget Deficit 
 
According to Handelsblatt (2/11), "America is groaning under its 
mega deficit of 1.6 trillion dollars in 2010. This gap increased 
within a year from 9.9 percent of the GNP to 11.2 percent of the 
economic output.  Several states such as California are about to 
face insolvency, and this on a regular basis.  The capital markets 
have been alarmed and fear that the creditworthiness of the biggest 
capital market in the world could be downgraded.  With a strategy of 
faith healing and savings measures, the Obama government is now 
trying to get the situation under control.  But it is faced with a 
dilemma.  If it overdoes its savings measures, it will suffocate a 
recovering economy; if it saves too little, it will stir up the fear 
of creditors of losing its top rating among the rating agencies." 
 
MURPHY