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C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000118 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2019 
TAGS: PREL PTER PINR KPAL LE SY SA
SUBJECT: GEAGEA ON MARCH 14 POSITIVE MOMENTUM, CONCERNS 
ABOUT SYRIAN INFLUENCE 
 
REF: BEIRUT 65 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The March 14 coalition has recaptured some of 
its momentum as it prepares to commemorate the fifth 
anniversary of Rafik Hariri's assassination on February 14, 
Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea told the Ambassador 
on February 3.  Geagea complained of Syria's ascendant status 
in Lebanon as evidenced, he alleged, by recent Lebanese Armed 
Forces (LAF) harassment of LF political operatives and by 
Syrian intelligence activity among the Palestinian 
population.  Geagea claimed that Syria was trying to recruit 
Palestinian fighters to revive the Baathist militant group 
al-Sai'qa in Lebanon's Palestinian refugee camps.  End 
summary. 
 
MARCH 14 UNIFIED BEFORE HARIRI COMMEMORATION 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) The January 31 gathering of the March 14 coalition at 
Beirut's Bristol Hotel to announce plans for a commemoration 
on February 14 of former PM Rafik Hariri's assassination sent 
a strong, positive signal to both its constituency and "the 
opposition," Geagea told the Ambassador.  Geagea expected the 
February 14 event to be a mass rally with speeches from PM 
Hariri, Kataeb head Amine Gemayel, former PM Fouad Siniora, 
and himself, among others.  Walid Jumblatt might be advised 
not to come, Geagea explained, since the March 14 rank and 
file might boo him if he appears on stage.  Despite 
Jumblatt's exit from March 14, Geagea described Hariri and 
his relationship with Jumblatt as "considerate and polite." 
Geagea reported that members of the opposition had asked 
Hariri about attending the commemoration, but only if he 
assured them that the speeches would be "acceptable to them," 
which Geagea claimed Hariri had refused to do.  Even so, 
Geagea expected at least token representation from Berri's 
Amal and Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, although he 
pointedly excluded the possibility of Hizballah sending 
anyone. 
 
MARCH 14 MONEY WOES? 
-------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Just before meeting the Ambassador, Geagea attended 
the regular weekly meeting of the March 14 Secretariat, his 
first such attendance in months.  This, along with the 
Bristol meeting, which PM Hariri also attended, proved the 
continued relevance of the Secretariat and yielded positive 
public optics for the movement, Geagea assessed.  Echoing 
other members of March 14, Geagea complained about the money 
woes of the movement, which he said had hit Hariri's own 
Sunni supporters in the Future Movement particularly hard. 
Geagea alleged that Hariri's Future TV is months behind on 
its payroll and that Hariri had engaged a new public 
relations firm for the February 14 event because he owes 
"millions" to the previous PR outfit. 
 
CONCERNS ABOUT SYRIAN INFLUENCE 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Geagea said he met with Hariri that day to protest 
harassment of LF members by the LAF's G-2 intelligence 
services, a development which he described as part of a wider 
pattern of growing Syrian influence in Lebanon.  The current 
LAF leadership, in particular G-2 deputy General Abbas 
Ibrahim, Geagea claimed, is "to the liking of Syria and 
Hizballah."  He characterized G-2 head Edmond Fadel as weak. 
Defense Minister Elias Murr has little influence compared to 
Syria, which is "giving orders to the LAF," Geagea opined. 
 
¶5.  (C) This reassertion of a Syrian role extends, Geagea 
assessed, to the Palestinian refugee camps and Palestinian 
military bases in Lebanon.  He claimed that Syria is trying 
to recruit Palestinian fighters to revive the Palestinian 
Baathist militant group, as-Sai'qa, in order to regroup 
"their" Palestinians into an organization they fully control. 
 Such Syrian moves are possible, Geagea claimed, because of 
growing Syrian sway with the Saudis, who are less 
sophisticated on Lebanese issues.  "(Syrian President Bashar) 
al-Asad has a direct line to Riyadh and from Riyadh to 
 
Saad...on even the smallest details," he reported.  Geagea 
urged that the U.S. raise these matters with the Saudis in 
both Washington and Riyadh. 
 
SISON