VZCZCXRO1996
PP RUEHBZ RUEHGI
DE RUEHGI #0054/01 0551243
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 241243Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY BANGUI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1184
INFO RHMFISS/AFRICOM
RUEHBZ/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE 0284
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0394
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0407
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0306
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0247
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0220
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 0598
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0592
RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA 0012
RUEHNJ/USDAO NDJAMENA CD
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0215
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0013
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 1496

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000054 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
USUN FOR DMUERS 
PARIS FOR RKANEDA 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
NAIROBI  FOR AKARAS 
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL 
INR FOR JPEKKINEN 
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: CAR: ELECTIONS DELAYS THREATEN CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER, MAY 
FORCE CONSENSUS WITH OPPOSITION. 
 
REF: A. A:  BANGUI 41 
     ¶B. B:  BANGUI 42 AND PREVIOUS. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Central African constitutional and 
electoral law stipulates that elections must occur 105 days 
before the end of the government's mandate, with the Council of 
Ministers announcing elections at least 60 days before the 
planned date.  Although the Independent Electoral Commission 
(IEC) issued a calendar indicating April 18 as the date of the 
elections, the Council failed to announce a date.  Although 
February 26 is the last possible date the government can call 
for elections in order to avoid running afoul of constitutional 
stipulations, many experts believe that the government cannot 
announce elections in the near term due to technical and funding 
shortfalls, as well as continued controversy swirling around the 
Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) and the Disarmament, 
Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) process (Ref A). While 
most observes suspect that the involved actors will negotiate 
around the Constitution's demands, the international community 
faces the awkward choice of insisting on flawed but timely 
elections or accepting a delay in hopes of ensuring a more 
inclusive and transparent process. END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------------------- 
ELECTION'S LEGAL WINDOW CLOSING 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) According to the Central African Constitution and 
Electoral Code, presidential and legislative elections must 
transpire 45 days before the end of the mandate. With the 
current presidential and legislative mandate ending June 11, 
elections should take place by April 26. Concurrently, the 
Electoral Code stipulates that the government must announce 
elections 60 days before the date of the vote - meaning that 
government must announce elections by February 26 to maintain 
the integrity of the electoral process. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
TOO MANY OBSTACLES REMAIN FOR TIMELY ELECTIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The European Commission (EC) recently secured an extra 
2.5 million Euros for the UNDP elections basket fund, bringing 
their total to 6.5 million Euros (8.5 million USD). However, 
observer predictions that the costs of the elections are now 
likely to exceed 21 million USD temper this good news. This is 
an increase of over 5 million USD from original UNDP estimates 
(Ref A), and no other countries or institutions plan further 
contributions as of this report. Furthermore, the UNDP, charged 
with helping the CARG and IEC to organize the elections, 
continues to suffer from staffing and financial shortfalls. They 
have yet to complete the paperwork needed for the EC to make 
their contribution to the basket fund and they have only hired 
two of twelve proposed electoral experts. 
 
¶4. (SBU) As reported in Ref A, the Independent Electoral 
Commission is moribund pending a presidential decree that will 
formalize its new members. Though this should happen within the 
week, the planned audit of the IEC President's finances 
continues to await assignment to an auditor. The opposition 
accepted the government's demand to choose the auditor, but only 
under jointly negotiated terms of reference. It is clear they 
still hope to unearth mismanagement by the President and call 
for his replacement. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The electoral census is sure to pose another stumbling 
block: The President of the IEC seeks a simple update of the 
 
BANGUI 00000054  002 OF 003 
 
 
electoral lists of 2005 as a way to reduce the burdens on the 
IEC's preparations for the vote, but the opposition is concerned 
that creating electoral lists ``on the cheap'' when much of the 
population in the North has been displaced will disenfranchise 
many potential voters and seeks a new census in the name of 
transparency.  (Note: The IEC President is mindful of the fact 
that the Ministry of the Interior would approve updated 
electoral lists, but the full IEC would need to approve new 
lists.  End Note.)  The UN estimates that 300,000 Central 
Africans are currently displaced or seeking refuge in 
neighboring countries as a result of war and forced displacement 
since the last election. This problem is particularly acute in 
the opposition's stronghold in the northwest. A full census 
would ensure that more of the affected parties could vote, but 
the investment in time would dampen any chances of a timely 
election. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The stalled DDR also raises questions about the safety 
and security of any possible election (Ref A). All agree that 
elections without the DDR will be extremely difficult. Yet in a 
recent speech, President Bozize blamed DDR implementation delays 
on the president of the Army for the Restitution of Democracy 
(APRD) militia, Jean Jacques Demafouth and his own Minister of 
Communication, Cyriaque Gonda. Ignoring the mistrust that many 
in the militia have for his administration, he claims their 
leaders stole large quantities of money meant for the militia 
members and that they are to blame for the lack of progress in 
the DDR. Bozize went on to say he will ``point a knife'' at 
those that threatened him and that he will ``skin trouble 
makers''. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Mediator of the Republic, who played a key role in 
finding a solution to the IEC's impasse, suggested to the CDA in 
a recent meeting that the President does not understand that his 
aggressive posturing will slow the DDR. Post suspects that 
Bozize's intimate familiarity with coups and political violence 
leaves him consistently nervous that others seek to unseat him. 
He said as much to the Mediator when he spoke of fears that the 
militia men will simply use the money they receive to buy 
weapons to attack him (NOTE: This would be difficult as the 
militia members are set to receive just USD 130 for three months 
worth of food while they await demobilization. END 
NOTE.).Therefore, the seeming contradiction of wanting 
elections, but not taking the necessary steps to implement DDR 
suggests he fears that a peaceable northwest poses not only an 
electoral, but also physical, threat to him. Unfortunately, few 
others believe legitimate elections are possible without the 
increased peace and stability promised by the DDR. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
DELAYS IMPOSE DIFFICULT CHOICES 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Most observers continue to agree that 
President Bozize wants elections, which are vital to maintaining 
his legitimacy. However, the opposition persists in their 
spoiler tactics, hoping for greater leverage in negotiations to 
solve the impending crisis. The delayed elections threaten the 
integrity of the constitution, but the conventional wisdom is 
that if the President and opposition can reach an agreement over 
the timing and implementation of the elections, the National 
Assembly will find a way to extend the current mandate and avoid 
a legal crisis.   Most observers in the international community 
are ready to accept such a compromise provided the parties reach 
a consensus and the elections occur this year. 
 
 
BANGUI 00000054  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) The lack of voter lists, local electoral commissions, 
trained elections workers and materials, and a lack of funding 
all suggest a mere two to three week delay will not suffice. 
This pushes the electoral calendar up against the rains, which 
usually stretch from May to October, and bring the country to a 
standstill. If the census work commences before the rains and 
the sides strike a political deal, the elections date may be 
pushed back as late as November or December 2010. END COMMENT. 
SMITH